Fantasy Football Would You Rather: Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk?
It's hard enough having to set your fantasy football lineups every week, but what happens when you have to choose between two players at the same position — on the same team? With so many NFL squads having multiple talented, fantasy-viable receivers, this happens more often than you think. Fantasy analysts Scott Pianowski and Jorge Martin play a little game of "Would You Rather," choosing between San Francisco 49ers WRs Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel — who would they rather have rest-of-season?
The Case for Brandon Aiyuk
Aren't the 49ers fun? Second in offensive DVOA (and second in both the run and pass rankings), third in points, second in yards, undefeated and championship-ready; it's such a blast.
And aren't the Niners a pain in the neck, at least for fantasy purposes? Although San Francisco rang up 35 points, 30 first downs, and 395 yards of offense last week against Arizona, two major stars (Deebo Samuel, George Kittle) weren't invited to the party. Samuel shockingly didn't draw a target, and Kittle was held to one, a piddly nine-yard catch.
We can't help you with Kittle today — send your notes to Andy Behrens, Iowa apologist. But maybe we can toss around the Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel stuff.
I was afraid to revisit my summer ranks of the San Francisco receivers, but it wasn't as bad as I thought. I had Samuel at 18, Aiyuk at 22. But I'm prepared to rank Aiyuk higher in every week they both play moving forward, and I'm worried Aiyuk is good enough to potentially warp Samuel's fantasy value — maybe even crush it.
It's cute when teams have two receivers so close in value that they're seen as 1 and 1A options, but in reality, I think most teams (at least internally) consider a defined hierarchy. Jaylen Waddle is wonderful, but Tyreek Hill is the primary Miami guy. Obviously, Ja'Marr Chase is a tier or two above Tee Higgins. Cris Carter went to the Hall of Fame with the Vikings, but Randy Moss was the true game-changer.
Tiers, ranks, arrangements, they're usually unavoidable.
Perhaps I'm picking the wrong teams, where the lines of delineation are clear. If you can solve the nebulous situations, that's where the fantasy cheddar is. Anyone who understood that Cooper Kupp needed to go before Robert Woods two years ago is still laughing.
Every receiver has some boom and bust to his game, but I'm concerned Samuel might carry more of that risk than normal. Perhaps I'm overreacting to the blowup games Aiyuk had against Pittsburgh and Arizona, where he couldn't be covered. It's also possible I'm spending too much time with Matt Harmon; he loves all the Arizona guys, but Aiyuk in particular is a pet player. And I should be fair and note Samuel was a monster in Week 3 when Aiyuk was unavailable.
Nonetheless, this is a game about takes and stances and I've made one. Samuel looks like margarine to me, a tasty alternative. Aiyuk, smooth like butter. Are these lines clear to you, or more blurry? I'll hang up and listen. — Pianowski
The case for Deebo Samuel
First-time caller, longtime listener and fan of alternative. R.E.M. U2. Even Taylor Swift broke some barriers with her move from country to pop. OK, that was the gratuitous mention of Señorita Swift to help with SEO. Back to football: the mention of Kupp/Woods in 2021 jogs the memory of how absolutely unstoppable Deebo Samuel was that same season. The 1,405 receiving yards, 365 rushing yards and 14 total touchdowns were beyond anyone’s wildest dreams that season.
That guy is still in there.
I hear you on Matt Harmon being convincing when it comes to banging the drum for Aiyuk. It worked on me, too, as I got Aiyuk at bargain draft values in several important leagues — shoutout to the Scott Fish Bowl. Samuel, though, when he’s rolling, is very much the bass to Christian McCaffrey’s lead guitar in this fantastic 49ers offense.
Please throw out last week’s game, as Samuel was playing with rib and knee injuries that might have been better off receiving rest than logging 87% of snaps in San Francisco’s 35-16 victory over Arizona. Yes, the 6/129/1 receiving line against the Giants the previous week was with Aiyuk sitting out to nurse a shoulder injury, so I get the argument that his biggest games are when he’s the clear top option in the passing game.
But the previous week Samuel totaled 101 yards and a score with his counterpart on the field. They very much complement each other, not unlike Kupp and Woods back in the day. Full disclosure, I had Woods with the slight advantage over Kupp in 2021 because of his work in the rushing game.
Speaking of work in the rushing game, Samuel taking handoffs is what made him a mold buster and it’s going to become a more important role for him as the season goes forward. McCaffrey has 98 total touches through four weeks, which would be 416.5 total touches when projected over 17 games. That’s 2019 levels of utilization for McCaffrey, though there will come a point where the 49ers have to take the pedal off the gas to preserve him for January and possibly February.
That’s where Samuel should come in, grabbing some of the touches that might have gone to McCaffrey to save some bullets for the postseason. Those Samuel numbers will add up during the most important games of the fantasy calendar. So, I’ll have my toast with some margarine. — Martin
