Fantasy Football Week 9 RB Report: Midseason edition
It's usually after the season that fantasy analysts and managers take inventory of their predictions and teams to look at what worked. Most spend more time than they should focusing on what didn’t. I like to convince myself that the latter is for self-evaluation. Maybe self-improvement.
As we tear the cover off Week 9, it looks like as good a time as any to examine the running back landscape and see what worked and what could still work out. It’s a good exercise, as we’re about halfway through the NFL season — Game 18 (aka Week 18) is a nonstarter to most of us because the fantasy playoffs are done by then. The sample size is healthy enough that we can get a good look at whether some of our preseason prognostications worked, and if not, get an idea of what went wrong.
This being the Running Back Report, we’ll use this week’s space to take a look at how some of the backfields that had some question marks have shaken out. We’ll see where rookie hype may have been overstated. We’ll examine how process may have been flawed in some instances, and how it could have been simplified in others. All in the name of self-improvement.
Here are the lessons learned at the midway point of the 2023 NFL season.
Don’t be too quick to dismiss the incumbent
Jacksonville Jaguars
Travis Etienne Jr. was returning off his first healthy NFL season in which he finished with 1,441 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns. The offseason chatter was that he would not be as involved in the passing game as some would like — he had three or fewer targets in all but three games last year. Plus, there was talk that third-rounder Tank Bigsby was going to take some of the touches away from Etienne and form a committee.
Lesson: in six of eight games, Etienne has more than 20 touches. He’s fifth in running back targets with 35 and his 849 scrimmage yards are second to Christian McCaffrey. Etienne has yet to turn 25, so it was too early to declare that he was not going to become a bigger part of the passing game. Especially when Etienne was taken in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. It helps that this is his second year in the same offense with a head coach in Doug Pederson who has a proven track record of successful fantasy running backs.
Draft the ecosystem
Miami Dolphins
Shoutout to amigo Matt Harmon’s pet term. Sometimes it’s good to take a look at the offensive environment and just get a piece of a high-powered team. Case in point, the Dolphins already had two of the most explosive pass catchers in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who each had over 1,300 receiving yards in 2022. While the team was 31st in team rushing attempts with 390, head coach Mike McDaniel had a background constructing running games for the 49ers. That number was bound to come up.
Two players — Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane — fit the speed-first profile of the receivers. Achane especially had track speed that translated to the football field. When Miami used one of four draft picks on Achane, it was not to have him sit. But did anyone foresee that Achane would score seven times, amass 527 all-purpose yards and be the RB9 through eight weeks while really only playing three games? Add the fact that he was the RB54 and taken in the 11th round — hardly anyone had an inkling of that thought.
Mostert also had history with McDaniel, ran for almost 900 yards last year and was still the RB40 going in the 10th round of 2023 drafts. He was a dart-throw worth taking, and has rewarded fantasy managers with 12 touchdowns, good for second in the NFL to McCaffrey, and 671 scrimmage yards.
Philadelphia Eagles
Another team with an inviting environment was Philadelphia. The top-rated offensive line, according to PFF, a dual-threat quarterback who’s one of the best in the league in Jalen Hurts and a pair of top-flight pass catchers (A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith). The only problem was D’Andre Swift (ADP: 33), Rashaad Penny (ADP: 39) and Kenneth Gainwell (ADP: 46) were feared to be in a three-way committee.
Since none of them was likely to be more than an RB2 on any fantasy teams, it was worth taking a shot on any of them. Swift was a 2020 second-round pick — Penny was taken in the first in 2018 — and had shown to be a multi-talented running back with 148 targets the previous two seasons. Taking a shot on him in the eighth round of fantasy drafts? As the current RB8 with over 700 all-purpose yards after getting just a single carry in the Eagles’ opener, Swift may be a league-winner. All because people were drafting from a team with a winning formula.
Trust the RB of an expert play-caller
Kansas City Chiefs
LeSean McCoy. Jamaal Charles. Kareem Hunt. Who is their common denominator? Head coach Andy Reid. Sometimes the lesson to take home is that it’s a good idea to grab a player on a team whose coach knows how to build a successful running game. Isiah Pacheco led the Chiefs in rushing attempts last year and was just going into his second season. I’ll admit I was wary of Pacheco with him coming off shoulder surgery. I should not have been.
With 459 rushing yards through eight games, Pacheco is on pace for nearly 1,000 rushing yards. He also has 160 receiving yards, which is 30 more than all of last year. The Rutgers product is a dual threat who grew as a pass catcher like Etienne did. Fitting that he would do it under the tutelage of Reid.
Los Angeles Rams
Sean McVay doesn’t have the long history of Reid, but in 2017-18 Todd Gurley was as good as any running back in the game. He was the RB1 both years, even though he missed the last two games of 2018. McVay is revered for his play calling. Until some reports came late in the season that Kyren Williams was going to be involved in the rushing attack it appeared that Cam Akers was going to be the lead back for the Rams.
Williams has accrued 561 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns, and is still the RB6 on the season even though he’s missed the last two games. Williams was a Week 2 FAB darling who paid off handsomely when healthy, and is a testament that it’s a good idea to grab backs who play for good coaches. Even in Williams’ absence, Darrell Henderson Jr. and Royce Freeman, both largely NFL retreads, have been useful backs in fantasy. Nice tribute to the new father McVay.
Young RBs recovering from surgery
Breece Hall, New York Jets
Hall was going as high as the second round of fantasy drafts before the Jets signed free agent Dalvin Cook during the middle of August. That still felt high for a player coming off a torn ACL and would be just under 10 months past his surgery date when the season started.
Dr. Edwin Porras saw Hall as a running back with youth, high draft capital and great athleticism. Hall was a prime candidate to be productive in his first year back from major surgery. An 83-yard run in the opener showed he was well on his way to being back. His last three games have had his highest touch totals, and he’s nearing the one-year mark after his surgery (more on that in the next player section).
Hall is currently the RB14 and has this upcoming four-game stretch of opponents: Chargers, at Raiders, at Bills and Dolphins. He could jump into the top 10 by season’s end.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Williams’ was a more extreme injury than Hall’s, which was considered a “clean tear.” Williams suffered multi-ligament tears in his right knee, and it was a surprise to many that he was active when the season opened. Porras pointed out that along with having the more complicated injury, Williams did not have the same level of athleticism as Hall. Samaje Perine was signed in the offseason, with NFL insiders predicting work in the passing game for the former Bengal.
The lower expectations tanked Williams’ ADP down to RB27 and he went in the seventh round. To add some context, Dalvin Cook and Cam Akers were being drafted ahead of Williams. Like Hall, Williams needed to ramp up after surgery. He even missed a game, which ushered in rookie Jaleel McLaughlin into the Broncos backfield.
Now Williams is coming off a game with 30 touches, 98 total yards and a score. It’s the first game he had more than 20 touches. It’s about a year after his surgery date, about when players are considered fully recovered from ACL surgery. With a couple of dates coming against the Chargers, as well as games against the Bills and Patriots, the Broncos’ emphasis on the running game could mean a lot of Williams during important fantasy weeks.
No other options
Arizona Cardinals
After the Cardinals did an overhaul with a new GM and head coach, it looked like that would continue on the team. James Conner was a holdover among the running backs, but not much else. Then the Cardinals didn’t add anyone else in free agency. Nor the NFL Draft. Not even when there were several accomplished backs still available when training camp started. That’s a situation to pounce on, either in a Zero RB build or as an RB3 for depth.
All Conner did through the first four games was have a 71% running back snap share and run 62 of the team’s 78 rushing attempts. He was the RB14 at the time he got injured in Week 5. That well outpaced the RB21 ADP late in the fifth round where he was drafted. With Kyler Murray returning soon, and Conner looking to join him, getting a bell-cow runner for the latter part of the season is important. While the Cardinals will visit the Eagles (No. 1 vs. running backs) and host the 49ers (13th) in the fantasy playoffs, they also travel to play beatable defenses in Pittsburgh (21st) and Chicago (27th).
Lessons learned from players who have not met ADP
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
The lesson here is knowing that Henry was going to be on a .500 team (or worse), and that he's game-script dependent. He’s averaging 23 carries in the Titans’s three wins and 12.8 in losses. (ADP: RB7 / Current: RB11)
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
He could still finish strong, but it was probably too much to ask that he take the full workload when Ezekiel Elliott (231 carries in 2022) was such a big part of the heavy lifting in the offense. Some tough run defenses are on the horizon for Pollard, too. (ADP: RB6 / Current: RB17)
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Thinking that Bijan was going to get 300+ carries with 50-75 targets when Tyler Allgeier was still on the roster may have been asking a bit much. Robinson's becoming a larger part of the passing game, so he could deliver after all. More touchdowns, por favor. (ADP: RB4 / Current: RB12)
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
He had been trending downward in efficiency stats — 210-814-7 for 3.9 YPC last year — and has not improved much to 4.0 this year. The big drop in targets per game (5.4 last year to 3.4) is also alarming. (ADP: RB10 / Current: RB21)
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Putting blind trust into head coach Mike Tomlin consistently having a bell cow and not thinking enough of how Jaylen Warren's receiving work could eat into Harris’ workload is a lesson. Warren’s receiving work (26-184-0) has dwarfed Harris’ line of 13-94-0. (ADP: RB11 / Current: RB33)
Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
With a new coaching staff coming in, it was important to remember that OC Bobby Slowik came over from the 49ers, who usually go with a committee running back approach. Pierce is at 109 carries while Devin Singletary has 49. Pierce being a Zero RB find is fading. (ADP: RB19 / Current: RB34)
