Fantasy Football Week 7 Wrap: Chiefs keep winning while 49ers keep losing (players)
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy had one of the worst games of his career, and Brandon Aiyuk was likely lost for the season (he's feared to have suffered a torn ACL) during another tough 49ers’ loss to the Chiefs. Purdy was facing a stout Kansas City defense and unexpectedly missed Deebo Samuel (illness), so losing Aiyuk to a second-quarter knee injury didn’t help. Still, Purdy’s completion percentage over expectation (-9.6) was in the 15th percentile, and he was picked off three times. Aiyuk had a drop downfield, but Purdy’s picks were awful, including a late one in the end zone.
Purdy entered with the top Passer Rating (130.7) versus zone, but he ranked 32nd (59.3 Passer Rating) against man coverage, so Steve Spagnoulo’s defense is an especially tough matchup. Purdy still somehow finished as fantasy’s QB5 ahead of SNF and MNF thanks to two 1-yard TD runs (and QB production was also way down across the league this week). San Francisco’s red-zone woes continued, but look for Purdy to bounce back against Dallas in prime time next week.
Jordan Mason lost two short scores to his QB and was shut down by a KC defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to RBs, but he saw almost all the work returning from his shoulder injury. Isaac Guerendo fumbled during one of his two touches, and Mason became the first running back to run for 50 yards against Kansas City this season.
Samuel and George Kittle will see increased targets with Aiyuk out, and rookie Ricky Pearsall saw five in his NFL debut. Pearsall becomes a must-add, and he’s available in 87% of Yahoo leagues. Aiyuk's season likely ends with the most targets (47) in the league without scoring a touchdown, if his injury truly is a torn ACL.
Patrick Mahomes got just 5.7 YPA with a 0:2 TD:INT ratio. But he added a career-long 33-yard run and made enough plays to improve to 11-3 straight up as an underdog during his career. Mahomes always seems to run more during bigger games. The Chiefs are the last remaining undefeated team despite Mahomes sporting a 6:8 TD:INT ratio.
Kareem Hunt had two rushing TDs before halftime, finishing as a top-10 RB this week. He saw 24 opportunities and should be locked in fantasy lineups as Kansas City’s clear feature back (Clyde Edwards-Helaire remained inactive). Juju Smith-Schuster reinjured his hamstring and never returned after the second drive, while Xavier Worthy benefitted and saw a team-high eight targets. The rookie’s fantasy day would’ve looked a lot different had Mahomes not missed him wide-open on a would-be 71-yard touchdown on the first play of the second half.
• Andy Reid is now 22-4 coming off a bye and 5-0 in his career versus Shanahan.
• Purdy entered with the NFL’s highest average air yards per completion (9.1), while Mahomes had the league’s lowest (3.6).
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers
• Russell Wilson finished as this week’s top fantasy quarterback before MNF, got 9.1 YPA and led Pittsburgh to 37 points in a blowout win during his first start with the Steelers. New York entered allowing the second-fewest YPA (6.2) in the league, so this is Wilson’s job to lose moving forward. He has an NFL-high 20 straight games with a TD pass. Meanwhile, Justin Fields didn’t see any snaps after reports suggested he’d play in some packages.
• George Pickens made multiple highlight-worthy catches and finally recorded his first touchdown catch of the season. The switch to Wilson gives a dramatic boost to Pickens, who finished as a top-three WR this week ahead of MNF against a Jets defense that entered ceding the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers.
GEORGE PICKENS HOW!?
📺: #NYJvsPIT on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/omj7bvk7Jx— NFL (@NFL) October 21, 2024
• Najee Harris broke 100 rushing yards for the second straight week and scored a late touchdown. Game script helped lead to 33 carries between him and Jaylen Warren, but Harris has looked more explosive recently. He’s ripped off 30+ yard runs in back-to-back games after failing to have a 25-yard run over his first five.
• Breece Hall ran for a touchdown and recorded an impressive 56-yard catch, which was the Jets’ longest play of the season. Hall should’ve had a second TD run at the goal line, but Jeff Ulbrich accidentally dropped the challenge flag before Aaron Rodgers snapped the ball and threw a touchdown to Tyler Conklin instead of the review. Hall’s 93 receiving yards at halftime were the most by any RB in a game all season, and he’d finish with 141 YFS. Hall has 41 touches, while Braelon Allen has six since Ulbrich took over as coach.
• Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson both saw nine targets during their first game together, and far easier matchups are ahead.
Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills
• Amari Cooper’s first catch with Buffalo went for a touchdown. His route participation was limited to just 34% during his Bills debut, but he led the team in targets per route run (42%) and fantasy points. Cooper’s fantasy arrow is shooting way up after the trade.
• Josh Allen’s 33 pass attempts were a season-high, and he’s going to continue to benefit from the Cooper addition (and the continued growth of rookie Keon Coleman, who had a career-high 125 yards Sunday).
• Calvin Ridley appeared to get banged up early but returned and committed an egregious drop downfield in the second quarter. He’s totaled 56 receiving yards on 23 targets over the last four games.
• Tony Pollard managed just 65 scoreless yards on 22 opportunities against a Buffalo defense that entered allowing the second-most fantasy points to running backs. Pollard returned after taking a hard hit in the second quarter, but he disappointed fantasy managers this week.
New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars (London)
• Tank Bigsby benefitted from Travis Etienne Jr.’s absence, scoring twice and finishing as a top-five fantasy back. He had a career-high 118 rushing yards, helped by the Jaguars attempting 19 straight rushes at one point in the second half. Bigsby also committed a bad drop on a well set-up screen on just his second target of the year, so he’ll remain heavily game-script dependent.
• Brian Thomas Jr. saw just five targets but finished as this week’s WR2 anyway. BTJ saw a season-high 86% route participation and is already locked in as Jacksonville’s top wideout.
• Drake Maye finished Week 7's QB4 ahead of MNF in the losing effort, as the London game provided some nice fantasy production. Maye got zero help from his blocking or rushing attack, tying for the team lead in rushing. New England had scored zero opening drive points on the season (with three total first downs) before the rookie QB's touchdown drive Sunday. Maye is the real deal, and the Patriots have their quarterback for the next decade.
• DeMario Douglas’ line was misleading as he missed snaps while playing through an illness. He’s a hold in fantasy leagues with Maye’s emergence.
• Hunter Henry was a top-five TE this week and has become a top-12 option thanks to Maye.
• Meanwhile, Ja’Lynn Polk was catchless on three targets. He could’ve secured at least two of them and fell down in the end zone during a two-point try. Polk is struggling badly at the catch point as a rookie.
Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons
• DK Metcalf had 99 yards and a touchdown catch before halftime, but he didn’t record a reception afterward. He left with a knee injury that Mike Macdonald said “doesn’t look too bad,” so hopefully Metcalf avoided a serious injury. He was an A.J. Terrell tip away from scoring another TD in the first half.
• Kenneth Walker had a touchdown run and caught a TD on his birthday. He had a third score called back by a holding penalty on the opening drive as well.
• Kirk Cousins was bad, committing three turnovers with one going for a defensive score. He managed just 6.6 YPA against a Seattle defense that had been allowing big QB games recently and missing starting cornerbacks Riq Woolen and Tre Brown. In Cousins’ defense, the Seahawks' defense was more rested coming off a mini-bye after playing three games over 11 days. But this was a highly disappointing performance from Cousins.
• Bijan Robinson was one of the best players on the field throughout the league Sunday. He made a sick second-quarter run and a ridiculous one-handed catch. Robinson was fun to watch all game, and he deserves 20+ touches every single week.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
• Jared Goff completed his first 15 pass attempts, got 11.2 YPA and finished with a CPOE (+15.5) in the 95th percentile. He posted a 140.0 Passer Rating without a turnover against a tough Brian Flores defense. Goff’s fantasy value is limited thanks to not rushing and Detroit being so run-heavy, but he’s thrown nine touchdowns with a whopping 11.9 YPA over his last four games.
• Jahmyr Gibbs finished as the No. 1 fantasy back this week in a matchup against a Vikings defense that entered allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to RBs. Gibbs’ 45-yard TD run was the longest rush of the season and the first touchdown allowed outside of the red zone against Minnesota this year.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown finished as this week’s WR1 before prime-time games, seeing twice as many targets as any teammate. Jameson Williams ended with negative yardage on his lone target, while Sam LaPorta saw just two. David Njoku saw just three fewer targets Sunday than LaPorta has seen all season.
• David Montgomery left in the first quarter but came back, losing a fumble that was returned for a touchdown. Detroit was the only team without a lost fumble this season.
• Sam Darnold was also sharp (+13.5 CPOE) in a matchup between the league’s top two teams in ANY/A value, although Minnesota’s first negative game script resulted in just 27 pass attempts. The Vikings had trailed for only six snaps all season entering Sunday, but they played mostly from behind starting midway through the second quarter.
• Aaron Jones scored a touchdown during Minnesota’s first play from scrimmage, and he saw 17-of-19 RB opportunities.
Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers
• Jordan Love had his NFL-high ninth straight game with multiple TD passes by halftime, finishing with three on the day. If we gave Love a full season, he’d currently be on pace to throw 51 touchdowns and 27 interceptions. Fantasy managers certainly aren’t complaining about the aggressive style.
What a catch by Tucker Kraft for the TD!
📺: #HOUvsGB on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/5cpzRJLlEj— NFL (@NFL) October 20, 2024
• Romeo Doubs led Green Bay with 10 targets, while Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks split playing time. Wicks scored a touchdown and led the Packers in targets per route run (35%) for his third healthy game in a row, but he’s making a habit of putting up big performances on fantasy benches (and duds when started).
• Josh Jacobs had the most catches without a touchdown in NFL history before finally recording a receiving score Sunday.
• The Packers cut “Nervous Narveson” earlier this week, and his replacement came through with a huge game-winning field goal as time expired.
• Joe Mixon had two TD runs in the first half and continues to look fantastic since returning from an ankle injury. Mixon looks like a top-five fantasy back right now, and there’s a chance his ankle gets even healthier.
• C.J. Stroud threw for fewer than 100 yards, got 4.1 YPA and finished with a CPOE (-14.8) in the sixth percentile. Tank Dell committed an early drop, but Stroud’s dramatic splits on the road and without Nico Collins got even worse Sunday. Stroud has gotten 8.7 YPA with 21 TD passes at home during his career, but he’s gotten 6.8 YPA with 12 touchdown tosses on the road (over more games). The Texans benefitted from starting two separate drives on Green Bay’s 11-yard line, as Houston nearly won despite Stroud’s rough outing.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
• Saquon Barkley erupted for 176 rushing yards (10.4 YPC) and had a powerful touchdown run, finishing as this week’s RB2 in his revenge game. It marked the second-most rushing yards of his career and the second-most in NFL history versus a former team.
• Jalen Hurts was the QB2 this week while attempting just 14 passes, as he executed two tush-push TDs despite Barkley returning to New York. Hurts passed Steve Young for the third-most QB rushing touchdowns all time.
• A.J. Brown made the most of his five targets, securing another long TD catch on a fourth down.
• The Eagles have gone seven straight games without scoring in the first quarter and have recorded the fewest takeaways (two) in the league this year.
• Daniel Jones is the first quarterback in NFL history to lose six straight games at home without throwing a touchdown. He has a 0:8 TD:INT ratio over that span. Jones had 99 passing yards Sunday, and he had 56 yards lost on sacks. Jones and Drew Lock combined for 43 net passing yards on 29 attempts. Andrew Thomas’ absence made a major impact.
• Tyrone Tracy Jr. saw nine opportunities, while the returning Devin Singletary saw six. Tracy Jr. has star potential, but his fantasy value will be limited by Singletary and a shaky offense for now.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
• Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both scored during a game that saw Joe Burrow attempt a season-low 25 passes (thanks in part to the opening kickoff returned for a touchdown).
• Chase Brown didn’t have a huge game, but he had an awesome 28-yard run called back by penalty and dominated work over Zack Moss. Brown’s usage in this offense makes him at least a top-20 back moving forward.
• Deshaun Watson was carted off with what appears to be a torn Achilles, ending his season. Dorian Thompson-Robinson was oddly promoted to backup before the game, but he’d also leave with a finger injury. Jameis Winston finally got his shot and predictably proceeded to throw Cleveland’s first passing touchdown in two weeks. DTR’s injury isn’t considered serious, but fantasy managers are rooting for Winston to get the job.
• David Njoku saw a league-leading 14 targets during his first game without Amari Cooper, finishing as the TE2 before MNF despite committing a bad drop and visiting the medical tent (two regular weekly occurrences for him this season). Njoku will likely benefit from Watson’s injury and will continue to dominate targets, so he’s a top-five TE moving forward if he can stay healthy.
• While injuries were prominent throughout Week 7, it was nice to see Nick Chubb score a touchdown during his return.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Rams
• Kyren Williams carried Los Angeles’ offense with Cooper Kupp still sidelined, and he’s on pace to score 26 touchdowns this season.
• Aidan O’Connell — who is the only QB in the Next Gen Stats era not to record a single scramble in his career — left early with what’s believed to be a broken thumb. Gardner Minshew committed four turnovers in his place, including a fumble returned for a touchdown.
• Alexander Mattison saw 26-of-30 RB opportunities during Zamir White’s return, as he’s the Raiders’ clear lead back.
• Brock Bowers tied for the league-high this week with 14 targets, and he has the most catches (47) ever by a tight end over his first seven games. Bowers is on pace to break Puka Nacua’s rookie receptions record (105).
• The Raiders have the most missed tackles in the league and have recorded the second-fewest takeaways (three).
• Las Vegas kicked a field down eight points on fourth-and-goal with 2:50 left. It would make the defensive stops (no guarantee) only to get the ball back at its own 11-yard line with no timeouts and still needing to score a touchdown.
Carolina Panthers @ Washington Commanders
• Jayden Daniels left after taking an awkward hit during Washington’s first drive, and it’s an injury situation that obviously needs to be closely monitored. The NFL moved next week’s marquee matchup with Caleb Williams into the afternoon slot.
• Marcus Mariota took over and finished as the QB6, getting 8.9 YPA and a +15.2 CPOE with 11 rush attempts.
• Austin Ekeler had his worst fantasy game of the season in a highly favorable matchup/game script and with Brian Robinson playing through a knee injury.
• A fourth-quarter touchdown with the score 37-0 helped salvage Chuba Hubbard’s fantasy day. He’s been terrific, but Hubbard’s fantasy scoring has decreased four straight weeks.
• Carolina’s passing attack was a huge bust Sunday. Andy Dalton failed to throw for 100 yards against an inviting Washington defense that was missing Jonathan Allen. Dalton threw an ugly pick-six on the opening drive, and his average depth of target (4.7 yards) was in the fourth percentile.
Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts
• Anthony Richardson struggled badly with accuracy (-18.7 CPOE) again and lost a fumble on a botched snap inside the 10. He looked healthy while attempting easily a season-high 14 rushes, and Richardson was facing a Miami defense that entered allowing the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. AR had some impressive runs and saw multiple designed opportunities inside the 10, with one resulting in a hard helmet-to-helmet hit. Fantasy managers are getting fed up with Richardson’s lack of production, but his schedule has been a major issue.
• The Colts have averaged 41 pass attempts in Joe Flacco starts compared to 24 in Richardson starts, dramatically affecting the fantasy value of their receivers.
• Tyler Goodson looks awesome and deserves more touches.
• Tyler Huntley threw Miami’s first passing touchdown since the first quarter in Week 2, but he’d later leave for Tim Boyle with an injury. The Dolphins hope Tua Tagovailoa (who was wearing sunglasses indoors during the game) can return in Week 8.
• Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill totaled 19 scoreless yards. They have 33 combined touchdowns with Tagovailoa and zero with all other QBs in Miami.
• Jonnu Smith finished as Week 7's top fantasy tight end before MNF.
• De’Von Achane led a split backfield with Raheem Mostert, who lost carries to Jaylen Wright after fumbling in the third quarter. Wright has impressed over the last two weeks in limited work, and he’s worth stashing in deeper fantasy leagues; Achane and Mostert remain two of the most injury prone backs in the league, and Miami’s offense could come back to life once Tagovailoa returns.
