Fantasy Football Week 5 Trade Analyzer: Sell high on ... Puka Nacua?!
Sal Vetri is a new Yahoo Fantasy contributor this season. He'll write a weekly football trade story focusing on players to deal. This week, he highlights five players to trade and two to target.
Note: You can view recent trades completed on Yahoo Fantasy for the players mentioned in this article to help provide additional ideas on potential deals. Visit the trade market for more details.
Try to trade Khalil Herbert
He had his best game of the season in Week 4 against the Broncos' last-ranked defense. Herbert played a season-high 79% of the snaps and earned 23 opportunities. This led to a massive game of 122 yards on 22 touches. But that might end up being his best game of the season. It was the ideal matchup and Herbert had a positive game script the entire day.
Chicago has some good matchups against the Vikings, Raiders and Chargers, but they aren’t favored in any of these games. If they fall behind in these contests, it could lead to more passing game usage for backup Roschon Johnson.
This is a good time to test the market and try to trade Herbert. Despite this solid performance, I don’t consider him to be a top-30 RB for the rest of the season. I’d look to trade him for someone like James Conner, Jerry Jeudy or Chris Godwin.
Sell high on Courtland Sutton
He’s a top-24 WR through four games. The Broncos' defensive struggles have led to more passing volume for their offense. As such, Sutton ranks top 20 in routes run and when you run more routes you earn more targets.
But here’s the issue: He’s had only one strong game this season. In Week 3 against Miami, Sutton produced 19.1 points on 11 targets. His three other games have been propped up by touchdowns, which aren’t sustainable.
In Week 4, we continued to see Jerry Jeudy and Marvin Mims Jr. be more involved. Mims played a season-high 39% of the routes, while Jeudy earned a team-high 20% of the targets. Not to mention, TE Greg Dulcich should return from IR soon.
Sutton is a solid fantasy option, but this may stop when the touchdowns drop. Sell high on Sutton for someone like Tank Dell or Sam LaPorta if you can.
Sell high on Derrick Henry
Vintage Derrick Henry returned in Week 4 for the first time this season. He broke nine tackles and earned 133 total yards on 23 touches.
Despite dominating in this game, Henry played just 60% of the snaps. Backup Tyjae Spears played 53% of the snaps and earned eight opportunities. Spears was the main passing-down back on third downs and in the two-minute offense.
Clearly, this didn’t affect Henry’s production in Week 4. But as we’ve seen in previous weeks, it will affect his snaps and touches when the Titans are trailing. Another issue is the Titans faced the Bengals' offense, which ranks last in the NFL. This was the perfect spot for Tennessee to remain in a close game where Henry could see 20+ touches. This may not be the case moving forward with tough matchups against the Colts and Ravens coming up.
Try to sell Henry off this big game. I’d look to trade him for Tony Pollard, Travis Etienne Jr. or CeeDee Lamb if you can.
Buy low on Tank Dell
It was the Nico Collins show in Week 4, which opened up a buy-low window for Tank Dell. Nico put up over 30 points on nine targets, while Tank had just four points on three targets.
Despite this, Tank still saw an elite role as he led the team running 82% of the routes and saw the most WR snaps. In three weeks as a starter, Tank has now run 83% of the routes and earned 6.7 targets per game.
Bad games will happen; we saw Collins score just five points on three targets just a week ago. But we have clear evidence this season that Dell can win in the slot and out wide. We also know C.J. Stroud is good and this raises the floor and ceiling of Tank Dell.
If Stroud keeps this up, both Tank and Nico will finish as top-24 WRs. Buy low on Tank before this happens.
Trade Gabe Davis
Over the past three games, Davis has averaged 15.5 points, ranking top-20 among WRs. He’s running 84% of the routes during this time but earning only 15% of the targets. This is where the issue for Davis comes in: He’s not earning targets. Davis has scored a touchdown in three straight games, which is propping up his recent stat lines.
He’s earned over three receptions in just one game this season. He currently ranks 91st among WRs at earning targets and is 59th in WR efficiency. Davis has seen no red-zone usage and has mostly been surviving on deep touchdowns.
The issue with this usage is the Bills have more passing-game options than previous seasons. James Cook is seeing RB targets and both TEs are running routes in the middle of the field.
According to PFF, Davis is expected to score just nine points per game based on his usage. Trade him for Tank Dell if you can.
Trade for Travis Etienne Jr.
He quietly played a season-high 84% of the snaps in Week 4. This led to 23 opportunities. This is elite usage but it will likely go unnoticed since he scored only 10 points.
Etienne was largely inefficient on the ground; he produced just 55 yards on 20 carries. A lot of this had to do with a predictable game script with Jacksonville up big in the second half and the Jaguars' o-line struggling to create running lanes.
But here’s some good news: Etienne’s main backup is Tank Bigsby and he’s handled just five total carries the past three games. On the season, Etienne has played 77% of the snaps and earned 21.3 opportunities per game. He ranks top-five in RB usage and remains in a top-10 offense.
Jacksonville has a good matchup and a strong game total in Week 5 against the Bills. Buy Etienne before this game begins …
Sell extremely high on Puka Nacua
He leads all players with 50 targets this season. He had another big game in Week 4, earning 163 yards on 10 targets. He’s extremely efficient and has earned high volume — this is the Davante Adams recipe for fantasy success. But the hype has hit a high point. Many people believe Puka is a top-15 option for the rest of the season.
Believe it or not, he’s not even a top-25 option the rest of the year.
Cooper Kupp might return this weekend. Kupp averages over 11 targets and 25.6 points per game with Stafford. Once Kupp returns, he’ll take the usage right back from Puka.
This will push Puka into the Robert Woods role in this offense from previous years. It will make him a solid top-20 WR, but not an elite upside option every week. Now is the time to sell.
Get as much as you can for Puka. If you can get Ja’Marr Chase or Tony Pollard, do it. Otherwise look for packages including guys like Calvin Ridley, Chris Olave, Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon or the aforementioned Etienne.
