Fantasy Football Week 17 Panic Meter: The road to a title is full of terrors
If you aren't a little bit panicked this time of year ... well, then you are probably playing in the third-place matchup, or perhaps the consolation bracket. Those are generally not high-stress scenarios.
In Championship Week, panic is a privilege. Panic means having something big to play for. Panic is just hope bent sideways. We have exactly five days of worry and terror remaining before our fantasy titles are won.
Don't run from it. This is the process. There is no other way.
If you're looking for specific subjects about which to panic ahead of the season's most important matchup, we are here to feed your fear. Let's begin with a two-time MVP and ubiquitous corporate spokesperson ...
Patrick Mahomes
Panic level: Full tilt. 😳😱🤯
If you actually advanced to your league's championship round with Mahomes at QB, you deserve special recognition for the achievement. It's more than I can say for my Mahomes teams. He was supposed to be the reason we would win matchups. Instead, he's been just another issue to overcome.
Mahomes has thrown five interceptions over the past four weeks, which puts him at a career-high 14 for the season with two games remaining. To be sure, not all of these picks are on him — in fact, his receivers have turned laser-perfect passes into horrendous turnovers at an alarming rate. But in the NFL, every player's statistical performance depends to some extent on his environment and Mahomes is certainly no exception. His deep-threat receivers can't catch, and his low-ADOT gadget receivers really can't catch. Out of necessity, this team has turned a developmental rookie into its WR1.
Let's hope we never see Mahomes stuck with a crew like this ever again. It's been a painful watch for most of the year. Travis Kelce, while still highly productive by the standards of his position, has certainly not been the tier-of-his-own tight end we drafted him to be. He's reached the end zone just once since October, which obviously doesn't pay the fantasy bills. Mahomes himself threw a brutal pick-six Monday, so he is definitely not exempt from criticism, either.
Still, under more typical circumstances, we'd be eager to start him this week against a struggling Cincinnati defense that just allowed 290-2 to Mason Rudolph (and previously gave up 303-2 to the objectively hilarious Nick Mullens). But this year's version of the Chiefs offense is a bad imitation of the unstoppable machine we've come to expect. If you aren't panicking, you aren't paying attention.
Stefon Diggs
Panic level: Elevated. 🫤 The current mood is something like this ...
— sports (@ilikesportsvids) October 8, 2023
It's been a rough couple of weeks months for the folks with Diggs on a roster. Even the hardcore Reception Perception route snobs have to be at least mildly concerned. In Buffalo's last five games, dating back to Joe Brady's elevation to OC, Diggs has averaged just 4.6 receptions and 40.4 YPG while crossing the goal line only once. It's been less than ideal.
Diggs has actually led the Bills in targets in four of those five games (and he saw 11 opportunities in the fifth), so the biggest issue has been the size of the overall receiving pie, not his share. Josh Allen has only attempted 36 passes over the past two weeks, while James Cook has feasted (47 touches).
According to PFF's data, there's nothing dramatically different about Diggs' depth-of-target or yards-after-catch in recent weeks; the team hasn't necessarily asked him to do radically new things in Brady's version of the offense. The glaring difference in his performance between the season's first 10 games and his last five is simply that he's letting the ball hit the ground. His catch percentage was 71.6 after 10 games, but it's 53.5 since Week 11. Diggs has caught just two balls on 11 chances in contested situations over his last five games per PFF, with most of the misses clustered in the matchups at Philly and KC.
It should go without saying that, yes, of course, he can get back to being exactly the player you thought you drafted. But we're probably gonna need the Bills to actually put the ball in the air more than, say, 18 or 20 times in order for Diggs to truly help us. If you've somehow snuck into a title matchup with Diggs on the squad, we applaud your efforts. I'm afraid the Yahoo team has demoted him to WR2 status for the time being, but, hey, he's certainly still playable.
Bijan Robinson
Panic level: Unchanged from last week's gnawing dread. 🫣
We detailed the exact nature of the Bijan crisis a week ago, and, even after a 19-touch, 122-yard performance, the panic remains very real. He's the head of a three-man backfield committee in which another guy is, maddeningly, the primary goal-line option. Tyler Allgeier has 35 red-zone carries on the year while Robinson has 22, and he has six carries inside the 5-yard line, compared to Bijan's three. It's an ongoing problem.
Atlanta is now headed into a road matchup with Chicago, the league's top-ranked run defense. So that's terrible, too.
If you're a Bijanist seeking good news, please note that the Bears have allowed the most receiving yards (887) and the second-most receptions (98) to opposing backs this year. Robinson has consistently been the primary backfield receiving weapon for the Falcons, delivering seven games with four catches or more and ranking fourth among all NFL backs in total targets (74). If he's going to help you win a ring, it's likely to happen by air, not by land.