Fantasy Football Week 17: One player at each position who will lead you to a championship
Any fantasy manager who has played for any amount of time knows about the championship week blowup games. Certain players go nuclear, and anyone rostering them rides to the title. The winning manager might even donate to the charity of the player’s choice. For those going against that explosive player, well, comes the urge to go back to bed and wake up in time for baseball season.
As with so much that happens in the fantasy playoffs, timing is everything. There’s no way to predict in August/September drafts that these performances will happen during the perfect week, which is Week 17 for a vast majority of leagues. While some of these players are stars reaching rarefied air even for themselves, there are the occasional breakouts that leave fantasy managers scratching their heads, like Rashaad Penny in 2021.
Need a reminder of some of these blowup games? Here are a few examples — note how many big-time fantasy performers showed out. Apologies if this causes PTSD for anyone who was vanquished by these truly spectacular performances:
(2022) Mike Evans: 10 catches, 207 yards, three TDs = 43.7 fantasy points
(2021) Ja’Marr Chase: 11 catches, 266 yards, three TDs = 50.1 fantasy points
(2020) Alvin Kamara: 22 carries, 155 yards, six TDs = 54.7 fantasy points
(2019) Daniel Jones: 352 yards, five TD passes = 35.3 fantasy points
(2019) Saquon Barkley: 279 scrimmage yards and two TDs = 41.9 fantasy points
(2018) Aaron Rodgers: 442 passing yards, 32 rushing yards and four total TDs = 42.9 fantasy points
(2017) Todd Gurley: 276 scrimmage yards and two TDs = 44.6 fantasy points
To be able to predict these players to pop even this week is not easy, but indulge me while I throw some darts. And for extra fun, let’s fill out a fantasy lineup set for glory.
Note: Looking back at these outlier outings, it was clearly stars who got the volume to have these breakout games. There’s no 2009 Jerome Harrison game in this lineup.
QB: Josh Allen vs. New England Patriots
Rostered on 35.1% of Yahoo Fantasy teams playing in championship games
This would be deja vu all over again, as in 2020 Allen and the Bills hosted the Patriots on "Monday Night Football" in Week 16 (the last year with a 16-game schedule). In that 38-9 thrashing of the Patriots, Allen passed for 320 yards and four touchdowns, three of them to Stefon Diggs. This year, the Bills and Patriots are meeting on Sunday, so could it be a repeat performance? In six games against the Patriots — taking out a 2021 game that was played in a windstorm that limited even Allen’s big arm — Allen has passed for 19 touchdowns and averaged 280.7 passing yards per game.
Since Week 8, the Patriots have allowed 300-yard passing games to Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa and Sam Howell. Even with the renewed running game the Bills have unleashed, the Patriots are fifth in the NFL in fewest rushing yards allowed to running backs, so putting the ball into Allen’s hands with the Bills fighting for their playoff lives makes the most sense.
RB: Christian McCaffrey at Washington Commanders
Rostered on 46.9% of Yahoo Fantasy teams playing in championship games
Putting McCaffrey in here might seem obvious, but the Commanders lining up against him make this a potentially explosive spot. CMC is 68 yards from becoming the 72nd player in NFL history to hit 2,000 scrimmage yards in a season — and he also did it in 2019.
McCaffrey has scored in 13 of 15 games this year — 21 touchdowns total — and could be fantastic against a Commanders defense that just gave up 191 total yards and a pair of scores to Breece Hall. The last time Washington did not allow a 100-yard performance to a running back was in Week 8. Four times McCaffrey has gone over 150 scrimmage yards, and 200 might be a possibility this week, even if he's rested in an expected blowout.
RB: Kyren Williams at New York Giants
Rostered on 37.6% of Yahoo Fantasy teams playing in championship games
Again, there remains the urge to scratch the head before including Williams in this list of past or future All-Pros, but considering how he has played since coming off IR in Week 12, he looks like Gurley reincarnated. In that timeframe, Williams leads the NFL with 111 rushing attempts and has a snap share of 81.8%. That’s second behind McCaffrey. He has gone over 100 scrimmage yards in every game. And he’s already among the top fantasy running backs, even though he missed five games. He also has his priorities straight after scoring touchdowns.
The Giants are allowing the third-most rushing yards to running backs this season (1,709) and just allowed 174 all-purpose yards to Eagles running backs on Christmas. As too-good-to-be-true surprising as Williams’ season has been, would it be out of the ordinary to see him get a ton of touches on the way to 150 yards and multiple touchdowns?
WR: CeeDee Lamb vs. Detroit Lions
Rostered on 28.6% of Yahoo Fantasy teams playing in championship games
While so much deserved attention has been paid to how Tyreek Hill has played this year, Lamb is just 15 fantasy points behind the Cheetah on the season as the WR2. Since the Cowboys’ Week 7 bye, Lamb has surpassed 100 receiving yards in five of nine games and scored in all but one of those games. Coincidentally, the game in which he didn’t score came with his highest receiving yards output (191) of the season. He’s averaging 104 receiving yards per game and has scored seven of his nine touchdowns this year at home. Guess where the Cowboys are playing this week?
Throwing Lamb to the Lions is going to be a mismatch of epic proportions. Detroit has allowed 168.3 yards per game to wide receivers (eighth) and 18 touchdowns (fourth). Justin Jefferson just stuck them for 141 yards and a score on six receptions. The Lions are also one of the best run defenses around, so the Cowboys should lean on the passing game. With a target share of 27.8% that is eighth in the league, Lamb could see a great number of targets in what could become a carnival game Saturday.
WR: Tyreek Hill at Baltimore Ravens
Rostered on 34.8% of Yahoo Fantasy teams playing in championship games
The dream of 2,000 yards might have to remain just that, as Hill is 359 yards away from that number with two games to go. Still, it was great to see him return from a one-game absence due to an ankle injury to get 14 targets en route to a 9-99-0 stat line. Now he could get an even larger share of the targets, as Jaylen Waddle injured his ankle against the Cowboys on Sunday.
The Ravens’ matchup might not look ideal after the way they manhandled the 49ers, but they have some vulnerability against elite wideouts. Brandon Aiyuk posted 113 yards on Christmas night, which comes after Keenan Allen and Cooper Kupp both surpassed the century mark against this defense. According to Fantasy Points Data, Hill has the best wide receiver/cornerback matchup this week. Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton suffered a knee injury against the 49ers, so if he misses time or is limited, the Baltimore defense against the deep ball might be compromised. That’s Hill’s specialty, and in a game with a pair of offenses that are top four in points scored, there could be some pyrotechnics happening at just the right time for those in fantasy championships. These teams also played a 42-38 shootout last year, when Hill caught 11 balls for 190 yards and two scores. Encore, por favor!
WR: Justin Jefferson vs Green Bay Packers
Rostered on 14.3% of Yahoo Fantasy teams playing in championship games
Scott Pianowski mentioned in a recent edition of the Yahoo Fantasy Football Show that the NFL is just better when Jefferson is playing. So true.
In the past two weeks, after a scary injury knocked him out of Week 14 against the Raiders, Jefferson has drawn 10 targets each game, and he put up the aforementioned WR6 performance with 23.10 points. Now comes the news that T.J. Hockenson is out for the season due to a torn ACL and Jordan Addison has been slowed by an ankle injury. This could line up as a week in which Jefferson gets 15-plus targets, which would make many forget the fantasy-football-related comments from earlier this season.
Jefferson now faces a Green Bay defense that has been picked apart via the pass by Baker Mayfield (381 yards) and Bryce Young (312) the past two weeks. The game is in Minnesota’s dome, where Jefferson went for 184 receiving yards and two scores last year against the Packers. With both teams fighting for playoff berths, this could be a sneaky-great NFC North shootout on New Year’s Eve, and folks could be toasting fantasy titles because of a big Jefferson game.
TE: David Njoku vs. New York Jets
Rostered on 21.6% of Yahoo Fantasy teams playing in championship games
Before he was the TE3 this week, Njoku was the TE2 the previous two weeks. Clearly, he’s regressing. (Insert wink emoji here.)
In all seriousness, Njoku is on a heater like no tight end going right now. In the past three weeks, he has earned 31 targets, turning them into 22-239-4. In that small sample, Njoku has seen five red-zone targets, second in the NFL to Travis Kelce, who has an outstanding matchup against the Bengals this week. But this is about Njoku being in a great spot.
The Jets have allowed by far the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers but are middle of the pack against tight ends. Joe Flacco has passed more than 40 times in each of the past four games, and who’s to say he’s going to slow down? If Flacco is going to keep taking shots via the air, Njoku should see another 10 targets. Any tight end getting that volume has a chance to be the TE1, which has just escaped Njoku.
