Fantasy Football Week 16 Matchup Meanings: Which RBs, WRs & TEs are set for success?
Fantasy football analyst Sal Vetri breaks down the top matchups at the three money positions — running back, wide receiver and tight end — every week.
Best RB Matchups
Chuba Hubbard vs. GB
Hubbard has commanded a strong role the past two weeks, earning 75% of the Panthers' snaps and 67% of the carries since Week 14. The Panthers have become more run-heavy over the past month of the season. They’re running 10% more and it’s likely due to their poor pass protection. Carolina ranks 29th in protection rate and this has led to more handoffs for Hubbard.
This week he’ll have the ideal matchup as he takes on the Packers. We’ve picked on the Green Bay defense all season and we’re doing it again with Hubbard. The Packers have allowed the most production to RBs in the past two months. This continued last week when they allowed 139 total yards and a touchdown to Rachaad White. You can start Hubbard this week.
Ezekiel Elliott vs. DEN
He had a massive Week 14, producing 140 yards and a touchdown. But in Week 15, Zeke struggled. He totaled just 46 yards on 16 touches, not great. But what was great was Elliott’s role. He played an elite 88% of the snaps and earned 75% of the backfield carries. He was pulled late in the blowout — otherwise, his usage would’ve been even better.
Elliott has proven to be a game-flow independent back these past two games, earning five-plus receptions in both contests and this should continue in Week 16. Elliott will face a Broncos defense that allows top-five production to the RB position this year. They allowed the Lions to run for 6.6 yards per carry last week. As a 6.5-point underdog, expect Elliott to remain involved in the receiving game. Start him against Denver.
Isiah Pacheco vs. LV
He’s expected to return to the lineup this week barring a setback to his shoulder. The last time we saw him was in Week 13, when he totaled 123 yards and a score against Green Bay. Pacheco has commanded 70% of the snaps and 85% of the backfield carries his past four games. Elite usage.
This week he’ll find himself in another favorable situation. The Chiefs are 10-point favorites against the Raiders, who allow the sixth-most rushing yards to opposing RBs this season. Patrick Mahomes' running backs average over 15 points per game as 10-point favorites or larger. Start Pacheco in Week 16.
Breece Hall vs. WAS
His usage last week was bad. Hall earned eight opportunities and lost significant run due to the Jets being blown out 30-0 by the Dolphins. Rookie Israel Abanikanda saw 40% of the snaps, mostly during the rout.
But don’t let this performance blind you from the fact that Breece’s usage had been strong in the previous four games. During this time, Hall averaged 16.5 touches per game. This week the Jets are actually favorites against the Commanders. Washington just allowed 155 total yards to Kyren Williams in Week 15. It’s now or never for Hall in your lineups.
Best WR Matchups
Zay Jones/Parker Washington vs. TB
Jamal Agnew returned in Week 15 and ran 17% of the Jaguars' routes. We also saw WR Tim Jones see his most usage since Week 10. But this was due to Zay Jones leaving late with a hamstring injury. Monitor Jones' status this week. If he’s out, you can pivot to his teammate Parker Washington, who is available in 95% of leagues.
The Jaguars' receivers have a strong matchup against the Bucs. Tampa Bay allows the third-most production to opposing receivers and we saw this continue last week. The Packers' rookie receivers had good days against Tampa. Jayden Reed produced 14.2 points despite leaving twice with injury and Dontayvion Wicks put up 97 yards on six catches. Expect Jones and Washington to find success downfield in this matchup. Jones ranks 12th in downfield usage this season and Tampa allows the fifth-most explosive plays to WRs.
Jordan Addison vs. DET
He had a massive day in Week 15, producing 111 yards and two touchdowns, though Addison earned only 18% of the targets. But that’s to be expected with Justin Jefferson active. Jefferson commanded a team-high 30% of the targets. Despite this, Addison was able to make the most of his looks as he’s done for most of the season.
This performance carried many fantasy managers into the second round of their playoffs and the matchup only gets better this week. Addison will face a struggling Lions secondary that ranks 29th in coverage, allowing the third-most explosive plays of 20+ yards. Continue to start Addison off his big Week 15 performance.
Garrett Wilson vs. WAS
Week 15 was a disaster for Wilson and the Jets offense. Zach Wilson started the game completing just 36% of his passes before leaving with a wrist injury. Trevor Siemian relieved him and averaged just 4.2 yards per attempt and 110 total passing yards. Miami completely shut down this offense, the Dolphins' zone defense was able to limit big plays and stop Garrett Wilson.
But this week is a completely different setup. Wilson will face a Commanders man-heavy defense. This matters because Wilson is one of the better receivers in the NFL at beating man coverage and Washington allows the most yards to opposing receivers this season. Aaron Rodgers confirmed that his season is likely over. You can FLEX Wilson in Week 15 regardless of who starts at quarterback.
Best TE Matchups
Darren Waller vs. PHI
The reports before Week 15 were that Waller would be limited and ramped up heading into Week 16. This is what we saw as he ran just 49% of the routes this past week. But despite only playing half the passing downs, Waller still earned a solid 18% of the targets.
His usage should only get better this week as he takes on the Eagles. Philadelphia plays a man-heavy defense and this is great news for Waller. His wide receiver build gives him an advantage over linebackers and safeties in man coverage. The Giants are 12-point underdogs, which correlates to more pass attempts for Tommy DeVito. This benefits Waller.
Isaiah Likely vs. SF
He continued to do his best impression of Mark Andrews in Week 15, earning 70-plus yards and a score for the second straight week. This is back-to-back games where the second-year TE has won downfield. He’s now running 87% of the Ravens' routes since Mark Andrews went down with injury. Tight ends who see 80% or more of their team’s routes average a top-10 finish.
His matchup this week seems to be worse than it actually is against the 49ers. San Francisco plays a zone-heavy defense which allows receptions to talented TEs and pass-catching RBs. We saw this last week when Trey McBride dropped 10 catches and over 100 yards against them. Expect Likely to be the main zone beater for this Ravens team in Week 16. Start him.
