Fantasy Football Week 16: Los Angeles Rams vs. New Orleans Saints start 'em, sit 'em, how to watch TNF and more
We’re less than a month away from the end of the 2023 regular season and it’s fair to say that we have already experienced matchups of all sorts on our weekly TNF slate. Now, we'll get perhaps one of the most consequential late-season meetings between two franchises fighting for their postseason lives.
The New Orleans Saints and the Los Angeles Rams share the same 7-7 record through 15 weeks and the only thing separating them in the NFC standings is their balance on conference games: Rams 5-4, Saints 4-5. The Rams are in seventh place; the Saints in ninth and on the outside looking in.
Los Angeles will host New Orleans in a seeding battle that will see the winning team overtake the loser heading into the final two games of the season. Both teams are coming off victories and it can also be said that the two squads have found their best versions of late, making everything click at the right time.
These two last met a little over a year ago in a 27-20 victory by the Saints over the Rams. How times, rosters, expectations and outlooks have changed since then …
The Rams opened the week as four-point favorites in their final home game of the year, with the over/under set at a rather high 44.5.
With both squads scoring above-average points compared to the rest of the NFL and allowing more than 19 points per contest, expect the scoreboard to reach the forecasted points total. These two are scoring a combined average of 45.5 points while giving up a combined average of 41.2, so bet the over.
How do the Saints and the Rams arrive at their TNF matchup?
Barring an overtime loss at the AFC-best Baltimore Ravens a couple of weeks ago, the Rams have earned victories against the other four opponents they have faced since returning from their Week 10 bye. They beat the Seahawks, Cardinals, Browns and lastly, the Commanders, 28-20, last Sunday, scoring at least 28 points in their last four games (including the loss against Baltimore).
Rams QB Matthew Stafford is playing his best football of the season after struggling a bit at the start of the year, having passed for multiple touchdowns in four consecutive games — the longest such streak among all NFL quarterbacks.
The Saints find themselves in a similar position, with QB Derek Carr finally finding the level of play New Orleans expected from him when they signed him earlier this year. Carr is arguably coming off his best game of the year, one in which he set season-high marks in touchdowns (three), completion percentage (82.1) and passer rating (134.8) while leading the Saints to a 24-6 win over the New York Giants.
After suffering a three-game skid sandwiching their Week 11 bye, including losses at Minnesota and Atlanta and against the Lions, New Orleans is coming off back-to-back wins against two low-level opponents in the Panthers and the Giants. The signs have been promising, however, as the Saints limited these last two opponents to six points each while New Orleans’ offense has been good to score at least 24 points in each of their past three games individually.
Even though this is not an elimination matchup and both franchises can still make the playoffs should either suffer a loss this week, whoever comes out of this battle victorious will be in prime position to get into the postseason. According to the New York Times model, the Rams would have a 71% chance of clinching a playoff berth with a win (11% with a loss) and the Saints would improve their odds to 77% (24% if they lose).
TNF Week 16: Injury Report
While both teams are carrying a few banged-up players on their roster, none of them saw any legitimate playmaker fall injured last Sunday to add wood to their flaming fires.
The Saints didn’t open WR Michael Thomas’ 21-day practice window after he completed the mandatory four-week period on Injured Reserve and he’s therefore out for this midweek matchup. Don’t count him out for Week 17, but forget about Thomas playing today.
Fellow wideout Chris Olave was listed as a “non-participant” on Monday’s estimated walkthrough, but he improved his condition as the week progressed leading up to getting cleared to play on Thursday Night Football, per coach Dennis Allen.
The Rams will have WR Tutu Atwell back after he cleared concussion protocol as early as Monday. He missed Week 15 (the lone game he’s missed this season) but he was a full participant in Monday’s walkthrough and completed a full week of practices.
One stat that can swing the balance
The Rams have the offensive edge (RZ efficiency, big-play prowess) but the Saints have a stronger overall defense. New Orleans, however, only has 30 sacks (fifth-fewest) and 66 QB hits (fourth-fewest) this season.
This game projects to feature more than a few points on both sides. The Rams have scored 20+ points in nine games this season. The Saints have done so eight times with a 19-point outing on the heels of that.
On the other side of the ball, the Rams have allowed their opponents to reach 20+ points eight times (allowing 19 in two other games) and the Saints have given up 20+ seven times themselves.
With both teams scoring a fairly large amount of points (and allowing them, too), the Rams might have the edge as they are ruthlessly efficient in their red-zone trips (which means they both reach the RZ extending drives and also capitalize on scoring, adding bonus fantasy points to your player outcomes).
The Rams have indeed been scoring more field goals than touchdowns of late and with the Saints not applying pressure efficiently this season (barring getting a season-high seven sacks last weekend) that might mean QB Matthew Stafford and his weapons could have an extraordinary chance to rack up points having more time than they usually enjoy to scheme, develop and complete scoring plays on TNF.
If that happens, and with Stafford’s experience factored into it (not to mention the fact that he’s not thrown a pick in three consecutive games), the Saints might lose their best weapon on defense (pass breakups and interceptions) and boost the Rams' opportunities on offense, making all of the Los Angeles players better fantasy options than their counterparts from New Orleans.
Two players to start, two to leave on your bench
Start in all leagues and DFS: QB Matthew Stafford (LAR)
While not rostered in all Yahoo leagues, Stafford has done more than enough to merit a perfect 100% rostership entering the playoffs — whether that’s because he was initially drafted by his GMs or because someone in need of streaming/QB help added him through the waiver wire.
As mentioned, Stafford is the only player in the NFL with an ongoing four-game streak of multiple passing touchdowns. He tossed four in Week 12, then three in back-to-back games and lastly two more against Washington last weekend. Even better, he’s avoided throwing interceptions in the last three games.
For those out there who drafted Stafford with a mid-to-low-round pick in re-draft leagues, congratulations if you made it to the playoffs while still having Stafford as your QB1. The veteran didn’t even have one fantasy score ranked among the top 12 players at the position in the Weeks 1-11 span, but he’s put up top-12 scores in each of the last four weeks including three top-six finishes.
Stafford is a lock to complete 20+ passes and break the 250-yard, one-touchdown barrier weekly and although WR Puka Nacua has regressed a bit, the quarterback has helped wideout Cooper Kupp re-locate his best levels of late with back-to-back 21-FP outings by the WR1 of the Rams.
Bench/Avoid streaming: TE Tyler Higbee (LAR)
For the first four weeks of the season, Higbee never spent fewer than 94% of all Rams snaps on the field. That changed for a single game in Week 5, but the tight end bounced back quickly and never appeared in fewer than 87% of all Los Angeles’ offensive plays in the Weeks 1-11 span.
That has changed of late, with Higbee’s snap share dropping to 75, 67 and 62% in the past three games in a clear decrease in volume of play and usage. It’s been five consecutive games for Higbee failing to get targeted more than five times and outside of his five-reception, two-touchdown outing in Week 12 he’s not cracked the top 12 among fantasy players at the tight end position since Week 4.
Higbee returned from a neck injury last Sunday, which might have impacted his overall play and his time spent on the field, but he was trending down before that happened.
Rookie tight end Davis Allen seems to be going in the opposite direction, and although Davis was only targeted once in Week 15 (he caught that pass for 14 yards) he already grabbed his first touchdown of the season in Week 14 against the Ravens on 4-of-5 receptions for 50 yards while appearing in 71% of all Rams offensive snaps.
Don’t be afraid to start: RB Kyren Williams (LAR)
I have read a lot about Kyren Williams’ ball-security issues following the Rams' win against the Commanders last Sunday. It is true: Williams fumbled the rock twice. Before those two gaffes, however, Williams had one fumble this season on 159 carries and 25 receptions entering Week 15. Those couple of plays look more to me like a fluke than a trend.
Williams is now rostered in nearly all Yahoo leagues, but that wasn’t even remotely close to being the case back in August when GMs were planning their initial drafts and filling their squads. Now, with just three weeks left on the schedule, Williams is looking like a first, perhaps second-round pick next summer.
He is the legitimate RB1 of the Rams and he’s carried the ball at least 21 times in three of the last four games he’s played since returning to the field (he didn’t play in the Weeks 7-11 span). He’s racked up at least 114 yards in three of those four games; in the one he finished with 88 rushing yards, he made up for that with a touchdown.
Williams is also good at catching passes (17-of-22 receptions in the last four games combined) although he’s not the most yardage-producing tailback on those plays (he reached 61 yards receiving in Week 12 but he fell to 24, minus-1 and three, respectively, after that).
With Stafford thriving and Williams playing as well as he’s ever done this season, defenses simply cannot focus on stopping one of them and leaving the other open. Win-win for both playmakers at their respective positions.
Bench in deep leagues: WR Rashid Shaheed (NO)
Shaheed returned in Week 15 after missing the prior three games played by the Saints, notably the ones in which Derek Carr finally found his rhythm. With Michael Thomas and Chris Olave out last Sunday, Shaheed should have done much more than what he accomplished, finishing the game against the Giants with three receptions on four targets for 36 yards.
That’s not a horrible outcome and Shaheed did make the most of his chances. That said, Carr connected with 10 different receivers at least once throughout the Week 15 matchup instead of focusing on making Shaheed his true/lone No. 1 pass catcher. In fact, Carr targeted a running back (Alvin Kamara) and a tight end (Foster Moreau) as well as fellow wide receiver Lynn Bowden Jr. a team-leading five times each.
Shaheed has shown a huge ceiling in past weeks (he’s had three games of 16.5+ fantasy points, all of them coming on touchdown-scoring outings, but he’s more of a sub-10-FP performer most of the time).
Too much of a boom/bust play to risk using in the fantasy playoffs if you can afford to fade him, let alone with Olave back and expected to rack up most of the targets on Thursday.
One player to scout as a prospective waiver wire pickup for Week 17
QB Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints (39%)
It’s wild to find Carr sitting on waivers in over 60% of all Yahoo leagues, but here we are, folks.
Carr is playing his best ball of the season at the exact time he should be doing so for the Saints to stand a chance at cracking the playoffs. No matter if New Orleans wins or loses, it will still be alive entering a pivotal Week 17 on-the-road matchup at Tampa Bay.
The good news? While this week Stafford looks like the best option at the position in a single-game DFS slate if you have to pick one, Carr is still a nice streaming QB facing the eighth-worst defense against fantasy players at the position.
The better news? Tampa Bay is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. What I’m saying is, Carr shouldn’t be a player you are “scouting” this weekend and making a decision for Week 17 based on what he does against the Rams. He is a must-add for those needy of QB options.
He’s coming off his second-best game of the season (20.32 fantasy points against the Giants) completing 23-of-28 passes for 218 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions.