Fantasy Football Week 15: DFS building blocks, values and a star to fade
Whether you've played Daily Fantasy on Yahoo before or are giving it a try for the first time, this weekly column will take a look at the DFS landscape, revealing whom I like building lineups around, stars to fade, undervalued plays and bargain bin options to help you construct a better team.
Lineup building blocks
Kyren Williams ($33) vs. Washington Commanders
Williams has averaged 25.7 opportunities and 143 yards from scrimmage with three touchdowns over three games since returning from IR. Los Angeles has the highest RB fantasy usage over the last month, and the Rams offense suddenly looks potent with its stars healthy. Williams has faced tough Cleveland and Baltimore run defenses over the last two games but gets a much more favorable matchup this week. Washington’s defense has fallen apart since trading away Montez Sweat and Chase Young and has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs this season. The Rams have the second-highest implied team total this week, when Williams should be considered a top-three RB.
Bijan Robinson ($28) @ Carolina Panthers
Robinson has crucially taken over Atlanta’s goal-line role since the team’s bye, including three opportunities inside the five last week. Robinson successfully ran in a short score, and Desmond Ridder flat-out missed him open for another. The Falcons are extremely run-heavy, and Carolina opponents have averaged the fifth-most rush attempts per game. The Panthers are allowing the third-most fantasy points to running backs but the third-fewest to quarterbacks, so expect Atlanta to hide Ridder on the road. Robinson is a top-three RB this week.
Derrick Henry ($29) vs. Houston Texans
Henry was fortunate two short scores masked getting shut down Monday night, but the Big Dog is up to six touchdowns over the last three weeks. Henry has big splits during wins and losses again this season, but Tennessee is favored over an extremely banged-up Texans team. He's averaged 203.6 rushing yards and 2.0 touchdowns over his last five games against Houston. The Texans have a solid run defense, but game script could favor a Titans team that’s 4-1 in Tennessee this season. Henry is getting 4.8 YPC and has scored seven TDs at home this year, and he gets a boost in the 0.5 PPR format.
Star to Fade
Tyreek Hill ($41) vs. New York Jets
Miami is optimistic Hill plays Sunday, but he’s likely to be hampered after aggravating his ankle injury Monday night. He’s averaging 136.7 receiving yards at home this season, so even a hobbled Hill should still be considered a top-10 WR this week. But he’s a DFS fade with such a high salary and in a difficult matchup. The Jets have yielded by far the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, allowing 72 fewer than the next best. Hill had a productive game during an earlier meeting with the Jets this year, but paying up for Christian McCaffrey ($42) makes more sense this week given the matchup and Hill’s injury.
Undervalued Options
Cooper Kupp ($25) vs. Washington Commanders
Kupp bounced back with a huge performance last week after averaging just 27.7 receiving yards and 5.3 fantasy points (0.5 PPR) over his previous six games. Kupp looked terrific while making multiple big catches downfield against a stout Baltimore secondary, so the assumption is he’s back healthy. Matthew Stafford has thrown seven touchdowns over the last three weeks and also appears healthier, and the Rams return home Sunday to face a Washington defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
The Commanders have also ceded the most EPA/pass and the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to the slot, where Kupp runs more than 50% of his routes. Los Angeles sports the highest WR fantasy usage over the last month and the second-highest implied team total this week, so Kupp’s DFS salary is incredibly undervalued.
Brock Purdy ($30) @ Arizona Cardinals
Purdy has averaged 314.2 passing yards over his last six games and has thrown 13 touchdowns over his last five. The most accurate deep passer in the NFL, Purdy’s 9.9 YPA is the highest of any qualifying QB in 67 years. The Cardinals are allowing the second-most EPA/pass and the eighth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. The 49ers have the highest implied team total (30+ points) this week by a wide margin, yet Purdy’s DFS salary isn’t a top-five QB.
Jayden Reed ($18) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Reed saw a career-high 10 targets last week and has emerged as Green Bay’s No. 1 wide receiver. He’s also recorded 10 rush attempts since Week 9 (scoring twice) and ranks top 20 in fantasy points per route run this season. The Packers get a reeling Tampa Bay defense that’s allowed the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to the slot, where Reed has run 75% of his routes. With Christian Watson still dealing with a hamstring injury, Reed is a DFS option in Week 15.
Bargain Bin
Chigoziem Okonkwo ($11) vs. Houston Texans
Okonkwo’s snaps and routes run have increased over the last few weeks, as he’s becoming a bigger part of Tennessee’s offense. Will Levis played well Monday night, and he has a 5:0 TD:INT ratio over three home games this year. Okonkwo is a DFS punt option at tight end at the near minimum this week.