Fantasy Football Week 13: With Chris Olave uncertain, A.T. Perry a solid sleeper play
Week 13 is a unique one in the fantasy football streets. Six teams are on bye. The playoffs are close in most leagues. Some managers might already be facing elimination games. The stakes are high. The nerves are frayed.
That said, the options aren't pretty. With so many unavailable players, fantasy managers have attacked the waiver wire. The current list of options under 50% is fairly slim. It looks like the cough-and-cold aisle at my local pharmacy, a barren and depressing shelf of emptiness.
Last week's sleeper page was the usual mix of hits and misses. Jayden Reed was almost too easy; the market has been slow to accept the Packers. Jeff Wilson Jr. wasn't great, but he exceeded his props. Demario Douglas and Rashid Shaheed made sense, but both got hurt in-game. Gardner Minshew finished QB13, a big bowl of meh. He probably didn't win it for you, probably didn't lose it for you.
We're onto Week 13. Let's see what's left on the shelves.
WR Curtis Samuel vs. Dolphins (36% rostered)
We know a few things about the Commanders: they pass to set up the pass. Washington has the highest pass ratio in the league, and while game script has forced much of that, the Commanders also rank third in pass rate over expectation. Offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy learned at the lectern of Andy Reid, so none of this is a surprise.
What's been frustrating is trying to mine production from the Washington receivers. Terry McLaurin has been a minor disappointment, Jahan Dotson a major one. But Samuel has entered the conversation, off a snappy 9-100-0 line at Dallas on Thanksgiving. Samuel can usually be found in the slot, which allows for routes that quickly develop and are easy to see.
Miami's a 9.5-point favorite over Washington, and you know what that means. Sam Howell's gonna throw a lot of passes. Samuel makes sense as a sneaky PPR play.
WR A.T. Perry vs. Lions (3% rostered)
It's a tricky time for the Saints offense. Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed are definitely out, and it's possible Chris Olave might not play after suffering a Week 12 concussion. This is horrible timing because the Week 13 opponent — Detroit — has been getting torched downfield.
So the Saints need to think creatively this week. Maybe that means an extra dose of Taysom Hill, who would be on the sleeper page if his roster tag wasn't well over 50%. This could also be a week where Alvin Kamara catches a slew of passes. And we have to accept that Derek Carr isn't playing well right now; he couldn't finish a touchdown drive at Atlanta last week, and his pick 6 was the biggest reason the Saints lost that critical game.
Perry has almost zero NFL tape to go on; he's caught all of three passes this year. But he did lead the Saints receivers in snaps last week, and now he's had a week to get up to speed with the first-string offense. I expect Perry to absorb a decent target share this week, against a beatable secondary. Hopefully, those Carr passes are somewhat on target.
TE Cade Otton vs. Panthers (39% rostered)
Say this for Otton, he's easy to find. He rarely comes off the field. His snap share is almost always over 90%, and last year his route participation was 100%. The Buccaneers have a narrow target tree, and Otton is part of it.
When the Buccaneers get near the goal line, we know Mike Evans is the primary guy. But Otton is an appealing secondary option if Evans is marked.
The great thing about an Otton play is that it's not all speculation. The production has been there. Sure, tight end is a gross fantasy position, but over the past four weeks, Otton ranks No. 9 on the board (16-174-2, 21 targets). You might add Otton for need, and then hold him by choice after the weekend.
RB Samaje Perine at Houston (34% rostered)
We have to be realistic about running back sleepers in this space. Anyone who could even remotely feel like a "safe pick" is nowhere close to the 50% cutoff. Even casual fantasy players understand the need to hoard running backs the second they show even the slightest bit of plausible upside.
So this brings us to Perine, who's cracked double-digit scoring in two straight weeks. In the Minnesota game, it was through his receiving chops — seven catches, 60 yards. Last week he received a surprising seven carries, good for 55 yards and a rare Broncos rushing touchdown.
Perine is the preferred pass blocker among the Denver running backs, and that often leads to check-down receptions when Russell Wilson can't find anyone downfield. And after Perine converted from in close last week, perhaps he'll get another chance around the goal line, should Sean Payton actually feel like calling a running play.
There's one other angle to a Perine pickup, even if you don't want to start him now. At this time of year, we want to roster as many running backs as possible who are one injury away from a substantial role increase. Perine wouldn't be the top target for that type of angle, but if Javonte Williams came down with an injury, you'd have to assume Perine would be the beneficiary in Denver.
D/ST for *next week* — New Orleans (vs. Carolina) or Green Bay (at New York Giants)
Roster construction has a different shape at this time of the fantasy season. We talked about the running back hoarding a second ago, but it's also a good time to play look-ahead with fantasy defenses. I would never roster multiple defenses in September, when I'm trying to play for the big inning and collect the most impactful field players I can. But winning scenarios become more narrow and specific in December, and that's when the D/ST look-ahead starts to make sense.
Every league is different with D/ST roster tags; maybe your look-ahead choices could be more exciting than the two options I've listed here. Just be aware that the Saints host the hapless Panthers next week, and Green Bay has a prime-time date with the Giants, which should mean a handful of sacks against Tommy DeVito. Make sure you examine the upcoming schedule before your opponents do.
