Fantasy Football Week 1: Brock Purdy leads potential fades and busts
Welcome to the 2024 fantasy football season, friends! Congratulations — you made it. We survived. Now, it's time to set those lineups and get that journey to your fantasy championship underway.
Every Thursday this season, I'll be highlighting my biggest fades and busts at each position for the coming week. Keep in mind, however, that a "fade" or "bust" designation doesn't automatically mean you should sit a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or available options on your waiver wire.
QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers received a load of good news over the past week with extensions in the mix for two of their top contributors, LT Trent Williams and WR Brandon Aiyuk, as well as the return of All-Pro RB Christian McCaffrey from a calf injury.
Though having their key playmakers back for Week 1 is huge for Purdy, other huge factors are the capabilities of this New York Jets defense — an absolutely brutal unit to face to open up your season in all phases of the game. Purdy & Co. will face one of the best cornerback trios in the league with Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed and Michael Carter II. They've got one of the best defensive lines in the league with Quinnen Williams and Hasson Reddick (assuming he shows up for Week 1). They've got one of the best linebacker duos in Quincy Williams and C.J. Mosley.
None of it bodes well for Brock Purdy, playing behind a left tackle who missed the offseason due to a contract dispute and throwing to his star wide receiver who was in the same boat. Each of them could be in for slow starts in 2024 in an absolutely horrifying defensive matchup.
Heat check 🔥 Purdy should be sat in most single-quarterback leagues if you have other options available. Purdy will always have some upside due to his skill, offensive scheme and personnel, but the Jets defense is stacked and could cause some trouble to open up the year.
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RB Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
There's been a lot of buzz surrounding Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams recently, as HC Sean McVay designated him as the team's primary punt returner. It was a puzzling move, especially considering the team brought in third-round rookie Blake Corum (who's been designated the team's kick returner *eye roll*) to relieve Williams of some unnecessary touches after an injury-riddled start to his NFL career.
However, that's not why he finds himself in the mix as a fade to kick off the 2024 season.
Regardless of Williams' successful Year 2 campaign, having posted 1,350 scrimmage yards and 15 touchdowns over just 12 regular season games to finish as the RB6 on the year, he's got an uphill battle in Week 1 facing the Detroit Lions.
The Lions were a matchup to be feared just last season, allowing a league-low 13.94 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs on the year. Detroit deployed a bona fide elite rushing defense, allowing opponents just 3.9 yards per attempt (sixth-fewest), a 34.4% explosive run rate (fifth-lowest) and 2.6 yards after contact per attempt (sixth-fewest).
[Week 1 Half-PPR Fantasy Rankings: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | FLEX | D/ST | Kickers]
Heat check 🔥 I've still got Williams ranked as my RB18 in Week 1, which firmly puts him in the "start" category for most leagues. However, he's a player for which I don't have expectations of a 20+ point outing to start off my season. To help offset some concerns, I'll pivot to some higher-upside flex options in my lineups rather than flex plays with a safe floor.
RB Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders
The Washington Commanders will usher in a new era in 2024, having selected QB Jayden Daniels as the presumed future of their franchise with the No. 2 overall pick in this year's draft. That's presumably a plus for all areas of the offense, including the run game, with Daniels' rushing abilities among the best in the league from Day 1.
Lead running back Brian Robinson Jr. should be a primary beneficiary of Daniels' rushing upside in particular, with his presence forcing defenses to pause for just a moment to consider — which runner has the ball? Unfortunately, fantasy managers might need to pause too, to see those benefits.
The Commanders will open up their season on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and if the Bucs' offense is able to continue what they began building last year with Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in the passing game, the Washington defense could be in trouble early. The Commanders are deploying one of the most undersized secondaries in the league, which the Buccaneers wideouts should be able to take full advantage of from the jump, leaving not much time to #EstablishTheRun.
The Buccaneers allowed just 3.8 rushing yards per attempt and ranked bottom four in the league allowing opponents just a 7.8% explosive run rate. That translated to the third-fewest fantasy points per game allowed to opposing running backs, and with Vita Vea and safety Antoine Winfield — an excellent asset against the run — returning for more in 2024, it could be much of the same.
Heat check 🔥 I had Brian Robinson ranked as a fringe RB2 in my 2024 draft rankings. However, he's ranked slightly lower for Week 1 specifically, coming in at RB29 given the matchup.
WR Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans broke the piggy bank to pay WR Calvin Ridley a four-year, $92 million contract and make him a feature of their receiving corps alongside DeAndre Hopkins. Though the financial investment and Ridley's penchant for big plays have had me slightly intrigued in terms of his ADP in the eighth or ninth round, I do think fantasy managers will need to be patient in terms of that value paying off.
The Titans kick off their 2023 season with a road trip to the Chicago Bears, who currently roster one of the best cornerbacks in the league in Jaylon Johnson. Johnson gave up a league-low 33.3 passer rating and 195 yards in coverage last year (among cornerbacks with 500+ coverage snaps), notching another four interceptions and six pass breakups. He earned PFF's highest overall defensive grade for all cornerbacks (90.1), while his 90.4 coverage grade ranked second, only behind Sauce Gardner.
Ridley should see a fair amount of Johnson throughout the game, which has me concerned for his fantasy value to open the year, especially given his baseline volatility.
Heat check 🔥 Given the matchup, I'm fading Ridley all the way down into WR3 territory — currently my WR33 on the week. Ridley's already got a fairly volatile nature to his game, so if you need to flex another, safer asset in his place to start the year, it's more than understandable.
WR Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers
The Pittsburgh Steelers traded WR Diontae Johnson to the Carolina Panthers this offseason, and since then, he's been one of my favorite volume-based values in fantasy football drafts. However, given that the Panthers will open their season on the road against the Saints, he's taken a small (temporary) tumble down my wide receiver rankings.
The Panthers will open up their season on the road against the New Orleans Saints, whose defense could give them some fits as Bryce Young and his surrounding cast look to take a leap in the newly installed Dave Canales offense. Safety Tyrann Mathieu ranks among the best in the league in terms of his skills in coverage, and up front, Cam Jordan is one of the greatest disruptors in the game for opposing quarterbacks.
Tempering expectations for this unit's efficiency seems like a smart move in Week 1, even if they do take a projected step forward over the course of the season.
Heat check 🔥 Consider Johnson a flex option in full-PPR leagues with a relatively safe floor due to projected volume, but be wary that the Saints defense could seriously limit his upside in Week 1.
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TE Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
Jake Ferguson has been one of my favorite picks to take a big step forward in 2024. After all, he’s had an entire offseason of reps with QB Dak Prescott in the absence of CeeDee Lamb and is a near lock to rank second on the team in total targets. As a consistent fixture in the red zone on one of the league’s most potent offenses, he’s looking like a great fantasy value as the TE9 in drafts heading into his third NFL season.
Despite my general excitement for Ferguson on the year, he’ll have an uphill battle on the road against the Cleveland Browns — one of the best defenses in the league — to open up the season. The Browns were among the stingiest defenses to opposing tight ends in fantasy last season, having allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to the position all year long. In fact, they gave up 11 or more fantasy points to a tight end on just two occasions (Mark Andrews in Week 4 and Evan Engram in Week 14).
They bolstered an already strong linebacker corps with the addition of Jordan Hicks this offseason who will join Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and FA signing Devin Bush to comprise one of the stronger coverage linebacker units in the league this year.
Heat check 🔥 If you drafted Jake Ferguson this year as your starting tight end, there aren't any options likely available on waivers whom I'd suggest starting in his place. Given the nature of the position, you'll probably still slot him into your lineups with the expectation that he could be in for a down week. Consider starting some high-upside options in the flex if that's the case.