Fantasy Football: The perfect picks to make by draft slot in the first round
By Pranav Rajaram, 4for4
Special to Yahoo Sports
The most crucial decision in your fantasy football season is who you take with your first-round pick. That might sound like an exaggeration, but it’s true — fantasy football is won by the stars, and the first round is where you can get the best home-run hitters possible.
This graph reinforces the idea that first-round fantasy draft picks are consistently the most important players on your team, as they simply score by far the most points out of everyone.
With this being said, picking in the first round has not proven to be a simple task in recent years. Just last year, Jonathan Taylor, the consensus 1.01, was a complete disappointment in fantasy and did not come close to meeting his ADP. I have also personally been hurt by some of these first-round busts: Najee Harris (last season), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (in 2020) and Le'Veon Bell (the year he held out), to name a few. So, my theme for the first round this year is reliability. I’m looking to minimize risk wherever possible, because as the old adage goes, you cannot win your league in the first round — but you can certainly lose it.
One note before we get started: Do not select a quarterback in the first round of standard format leagues. Even though QB draft positions are rather inflated this season, it still doesn’t make sense to take one early because of how many excellent quarterbacks there are. The earliest I’d consider taking a QB this year is in the third round.
PHASE ONE: Players worthy of the 1.01
Justin Jefferson (Yahoo ADP: 1.6; Projected Points: 287.32)
Christian McCaffrey (Yahoo ADP: 2.1; Projected Points: 276.84)
Both the first and second picks in drafts are great this year because Justin Jefferson and Christian McCaffrey are each more than deserving of going No. 1 overall. Jefferson was the WR1 last season and has finished in the top six at the position in every year of his career. McCaffrey has been in contention for the 1.01 for five straight years now and continues to be an incredible fantasy asset. Besides injury concerns, both these players are bulletproof options who will offer a high floor along with a very high ceiling and are well worth their draft positions.
Approach: Picking between these two players isn’t an easy task considering how great the two of them have proven to be. With that being said, I find myself leaning towards Jefferson at the 1.01 this year.
His career is on an upward trajectory, as he has improved his reception and receiving yard totals in three straight seasons. Jefferson also was rather unlucky in the touchdown department last year, ranking second in touchdowns under expected. He has fewer injury concerns than McCaffrey, who has missed considerable amounts of time in years past. I mentioned that I’m all about minimizing risk this year, and Jefferson does exactly that, especially in half-PPR and PPR formats.
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I would definitely be targeting McCaffrey with the No. 2 pick and think he is a cut above the players ranked right below. CMC still offers elite upside thanks to his lethal dual-threat ability and should be part of a great 49ers offense. Don’t overthink it if you have a top-two pick in drafts this year.
Other Player(s) to Consider: None
Phase Two: Extremely dependable options
The top tier is followed by four players who should be very reliable in fantasy but have just a couple of uncertainties that separate them from the first two guys.
Ja'Marr Chase (Yahoo ADP: 3.2; Projected Points: 295.33)
Cooper Kupp (Yahoo ADP: 7.5; Projected Points: 244.24)
Austin Ekeler (Yahoo ADP: 5.0; Projected Points: 258.76)
Tyreek Hill (Yahoo ADP: 7.4; Projected Points: 258.30)
Chase, Kupp and Hill are uber-talented No. 1 WRs who were each in the top five of fantasy points per game scored last year (along with Jefferson and Davante Adams). The reason they aren’t on the same level as Jefferson is quarterback play. Chase’s quarterback, Joe Burrow, suffered a calf injury a couple of weeks ago that has kept him out of practice. He should be starting by Week 1, but whether or not he is 100% is a different question.
Meanwhile, Rams QB Matthew Stafford is coming off a season-ending spinal cord contusion that caused him to contemplate retirement in the offseason. Kupp is also banged up himself, as he missed the last eight weeks of 2022 with a high ankle sprain and suffered a hamstring strain in training camp. Kupp was great when healthy last year and his connection with Stafford is undeniable, but both of them need to be on the field to capitalize on their chemistry.
Hill is attached to Tua Tagovailoa, who suffered at least two (and probably three) concussions last season that caused him to miss five games. I’m a little less concerned about Hill because he has established he can produce without Tagovailoa — he averaged 14.2 fantasy points per game in the games without Tagovailoa last year, but his ceiling would still be lowered if Tagovailoa were to miss more time.
Ekeler, the lone running back of the group, was the overall RB1 last year and has been a top-six option in three of the last four seasons. He has a nose for the end zone, totaling 38 touchdowns in the last two years, which is by far the most in the league (James Conner ranks second with 26). Ekeler also offers value as a pass-catcher and has led all running backs in receiving yards since 2019. The only downside with Ekeler is that he is in a crowded offense. The Chargers relied on Ekeler a lot last season while Justin Herbert was suffering from a rib injury, but I expect the Chargers to be a much more vertical offense in 2023, especially with Kellen Moore as the offensive coordinator.
Approach Choosing between these four involves a lot of nitpicking and you can definitely select any of them at the 1.03. My favorite of the lot is Hill. His skill set is least reliant on having a competent quarterback considering his track-star speed and explosiveness with the ball in his hands. This gives him the lowest risk in the event of any injuries around him. While Hill might see some target competition from fellow speedster Jaylen Waddle, there should be more than enough volume to go around — the Dolphins do not really have any weapons besides the two receivers, so Hill and Waddle should both see target numbers well into the triple digits, as they did last year.
Ekeler is next up for me. He is a well-rounded running back and will offer one of the highest ceilings in all of fantasy football. His upside isn’t as high as McCaffrey’s because he doesn’t offer as much on the ground, but Ekeler will still be a very reliable RB1 for your team and is well worth an early first-round pick.
I would be targeting Kupp if I have the fifth pick in a draft. He is just two years removed from arguably the greatest receiving fantasy season of all time and is the undisputed No. 1 receiver in the Rams offense. His ceiling is also limited as the Rams offense could be disappointing again, but like Ekeler, he offers a ridiculously high floor and will be a set-and-forget WR1 for your team.
I’m a little lower than the consensus on Chase, who is the WR2 in ADP and third overall. Even if Joe Burrow is fully healthy to start the year, Chase faces the most competition for targets of the top receivers as Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are bound to see considerable value. So, I’m worried Chase will be less consistent than the others. Last year, for example, Chase scored over 23 fantasy points in Weeks 1, 6 and 7, but averaged just 9.1 points per game from Weeks 2 through 5. He will certainly still be a top-notch fantasy asset, but his week-to-week variance makes him less appealing in the early first.
Other Player(s) to Consider: Travis Kelce
PHASE THREE: Not perfect, but they’ll do the trick
Travis Kelce (Yahoo ADP: 7.0; Projected Points: 244.97)
Bijan Robinson (Yahoo ADP: 9.8; Projected Points: 234.07)
Stefon Diggs (Yahoo ADP: 11.3; Projected Points: 247.27)
Travis Kelce reappears in the first round this year after being drafted in the late second last season. Kelce continues to be the single most dominant tight end in the NFL and finished as the TE1 for the sixth time in seven years last season. If you wanted to take him with the guys in the tier above I would not blame you at all. The only reason I have Kelce a little lower is because tight ends are a less valuable position because you only start one of them. Still, Kelce will almost surely be the TE1 once again this year and offers perhaps the most value over replacement in the NFL.
It’s rare to see a rookie being drafted in the first round, but Robinson deserves the lofty status. He is the most complete running back prospect since Saquon Barkley and should immediately step in as the number-one RB for the Falcons. Running backs taken in the top 10 of the NFL Draft have historically had great rookie years, and Robinson should follow that trend:
The only thing limiting Robinson’s ceiling, besides the fact that he is a rookie, is that the Falcons offense likely won’t be too great this season. Desmond Ridder has not really shown anything that indicates he can support a mid-tier offense, so Robinson might not score the touchdowns needed to be the overall RB1. But, he will still see more than enough volume to be a rock-solid RB1 and a great first-round pick.
The ever-consistent Diggs is a first-round pick for the third straight year. There’s honestly not a lot to be said about Diggs. He has turned in top-seven performances every year since 2020 and forms one of the best QB-WR duos in the league with Josh Allen. Diggs epitomizes the idea of taking low-risk players in the first round. You can pencil him in for 150 targets and he should continue to be a reliable WR1 that you never have to worry about.
Approach: I agree with how ADP has these players ranked and would target Kelce, Robinson and then Diggs. Kelce’s only downside is the position he plays but he should continue to add to his Hall of Fame resumé this year. Robinson might not be in that great of an offense, which lowers his ceiling a little, and Diggs doesn’t have the explosiveness that some of his younger counterparts possess at receiver.
Other Player(s) to Consider: Saquon Barkley
PHASE FOUR: The turn
There are a bunch of players who have arguments to be taken near the turn, but here are the most common ones by ADP.
Saquon Barkley (Yahoo ADP: 10.8; Projected Points: 255.31)
Nick Chubb (Yahoo ADP: 9.4; Projected Points: 242.00)
A.J. Brown (Yahoo ADP: 16.2; Projected Points: 235.66)
Barkley is coming off a great season where he was the overall RB6 and is the perfect late-first-round draft choice. Injury concerns and lack of offensive potential mean Barkley is a little riskier than the running backs going above him, but he’s still a talented player who should be a top-10 option this season on volume alone.
It’s great to see Nick Chubb finally gain respect after finishing as an RB1 for four straight seasons. Chubb doesn’t catch enough passes to be considered with McCaffrey and Ekeler, but he is a dominant runner and still has a high ceiling if the Browns offense lives up to its potential.
Brown had a stellar first season with the Eagles, racking up nearly 1,500 receiving yards and 11 scores en route to a WR5 finish. Because the Eagles are a bit more run-heavy than some of the other elite offenses, Brown’s volume might not compare to the receivers above him, but his big-play potential makes him worth a late first or early second-rounder.
Approach: Because fantasy managers picking at the turn will have two picks in quick succession, I’ll also discuss some early second-round options to pair with these players. You can honestly take any of the players I mention below in the back of the first, as they profile very similarly to the ones in this tier.
Chubb is one of my favorite targets in drafts this year and should be going at the 1.10. As the clear RB1 for the Browns, he perfectly matches my low-uncertainty first-round policy, and could easily break into the top three at the position if he scores enough touchdowns. If I could start my draft by pairing Chubb with an exciting second-round receiver like Amon-Ra St. Brown or Garrett Wilson, I would feel confident about my title chances heading into the season.
Barkley is a solid pick at his ADP and should be a very consistent fantasy option in 2023. After taking Barkley, I’d be targeting a dependable WR1 like Davante Adams or CeeDee Lamb in the second round. That would give my team a very stable foundation to build upon with high-upside targets in the later rounds.
Last but not least, Brown is an exciting player but will also suffer from consistency issues like Chase. So, I’d be looking to add either Adams or Lamb with the first pick of the second round to complement Brown. I would then look at running backs at the 3/4 turn like Joe Mixon, Najee Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. If you don’t want to start WR/WR, you could also take Tony Pollard or Derrick Henry in the second.
Editor's Note: Consider reading Justin Edwards' column on players you shouldn't draft in the first round!
Bottom Line
The name of the game for the first round this year is minimizing risk, as getting your first pick right will set you up for a dominant fantasy season.
With the first two picks, you should consider either Justin Jefferson or Christian McCaffrey.
There are a diverse collection of positions in the first round this year, including a tight end and more wide receivers than usual. This allows you plenty of flexibility with the way you’d like to build your roster.
Near the turn of the first round, you should keep your second-round pick in mind so you get a better sense of your strategy for the rest of the draft.
This article originally appeared on 4for4.com
Pranav is an undergraduate college student from Massachusetts. When he’s not cheering for the Patriots, he can be found looking at various NFL and NBA-related statistics. He has played fantasy football since he was seven and enjoys working with numbers and data.
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