Fantasy Football: The four NFL teams we must get right in 2023
Each one of these teams has key players fantasy football managers will seek to draft — but drafting those very same players means buying into certain narratives. Matt Harmon breaks it down.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns have the potential to be a sleeping giant on offense. It all comes down to the quarterback’s performance after Deshaun Watson put up league-worst efficiency numbers in his six 2022 starts. Everything around him, though, is set up to go.
The Browns run game is one of the best in the league. Nick Chubb is an explosive, tackle-breaking, pristine rusher. He might just be the best back in the league, and the ground game may well be better now that it’s exclusively his show following Kareem Hunt’s departure.
Cleveland was sneakily light at pass-catcher last season. Amari Cooper had the best season of his career as an individual player; in my opinion, it wasn’t particularly close. Beyond him, depth was an issue. The Elijah Moore trade was one of the top moves of the offseason. You need to project a little with this player but we saw extreme separation and playmaking ability in his rookie season. You don’t need to go back that far and mostly just need to give him a mulligan for beefing with the Jets last year.
If Moore hits, having David Njoku as the third guy in the pecking order and Donovan Peoples-Jones as a bit player is suddenly much more comfortable. The Browns also have two Day 2 drafted players in Cedric Tillman and David Bell as depth.
[Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for free today]
Another possible positive for the Browns, in a pure fantasy sense, might be their defense. Cleveland ranked 25th in EPA per play allowed last year and dead last allowed per rush. I like the coaching hire of Jim Schwartz, and the Browns certainly have the talent to turn that unit around. But if that pursuit fails or at least takes some time to come together during the season, Cleveland will be in more high-scoring affairs and forced to keep their foot on the gas deeper into games.
Stands you need to take
- First and most importantly, Watson’s 2022 performance was a blip caused by rust — amid circumstances of his doing — and he’ll return closer to his Houston form. It’s one of the great unknowns of this football season.
- The receiver room is remade successfully. Cooper will be the same consistent, high-level X-receiver he was last year. The volatility he suffered through in Dallas is no more. Moore is the guy I think he is and fully reaches his ceiling. He becomes at worst a strong WR2 and at best, a 1B to Cooper.
- Kevin Stefanski does open up the passing attack to Watson’s strengths and leans more into 11 personnel. This has been rumored throughout the offseason.
- Chubb is in for a career season. This is by far the most comfortable of any of the stands we outlined here.
Seattle Seahawks
It’s darn near jaw-dropping to go back and read/listen to how we viewed this offense last season. As we stand heading into 2023, I see a potential top-five unit in Seattle.
The biggest mistake in doubting Seattle’s potential last year — I have been praying for forgiveness at Wide Receiver Church every day since — is not giving enough credit for just how much weight Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf were pulling in this unit over the years. They have been one of the top receiver duos in the league for the past three seasons and complement each other’s game so well. Lockett, in particular, was in his finest form last season.
The rich got richer when Seattle took the best receiver prospect in the draft, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, at the 20th overall selection. JSN is the perfect underneath and over-the-middle slot receiver this team, which can be too vertically-inclined, has lacked to stable out the pass game. Seattle will live in 11 personnel going forward and throw this impossible-to-defend trio at defenses.
The Seahawks took the same “build on a strength” approach to their backfield, too. Kenneth Walker was a dynamic and explosive, albeit volatile, runner as a rookie. Enter Zach Charbonnet in Round 2. The UCLA product is a bit more of a grinding, steady-hand type of runner to complement Walker. He also projects as a better outlet receiver and screen-target option. While this duo may be frustrating at times during the year in fantasy, they’re going to help Seattle’s offense score points.
Even the offensive line is a strength. Brandon Thorn is one of football media’s top offensive line evaluators and he aggressively ranked their unit coming into this season.
In the end, this all comes down to Geno Smith, who was fantastic last season. Quarterback charter Derrik Klassen outlined all the ways that Smith’s performance was not a fluke but showed hope for stability going forward.
Stands you need to take
- The receiver room suffers no dropoff and gets even better. Lockett may be into his 30s but he showed zero signs of decline last year. Metcalf is squarely in his prime and JSN has a pro-ready skill-set.
- One of Walker or Charbonnet emerges as a star workhorse back. Better yet, they become one of the league’s top tandems.
- Geno Smith wasn’t a fluke. Everything is set up for him to be excellent once again next season. Unless he just completely falls off a cliff, I struggle to find reasons he won’t repeat his 2022 level of play.
Los Angeles Chargers
It’s no secret the Chargers offense has a ton of potential. That is always the case any time a unit is captained by a quarterback with Justin Herbert’s talent. However, you only have to spend a premium fantasy pick on one player: Austin Ekeler. The rest can be had in Round 4 or later and the ceiling is there for this offense to finish inside the top three overall units.
There’s just some fragility to account for.
Herbert isn’t coming off a dynamic statistical season while under siege all last year. He broke his ribs early in 2022, played without his All-Pro second-year left tackle and watched as injuries consistently picked off his receivers. But this is a guy who threw for 5,014 yards and scored 41 total touchdowns just back in 2021. We have already seen the ceiling. He is proven. With Rashawn Slater now healthy, the offensive line should be much more equipped to not sink the unit around Herbert and give him time to attack downfield.
We know Ekeler is a star and offensive centerpiece. He’s recorded 3,195 total yards and scored an absurd 38 touchdowns in the last two seasons. Even with a new offensive coordinator and a possible small down-tick in targets, little should change regarding his role.
The receiver corps is where it gets a little more interesting. A severe lack of juice in the wideout room put a roof over the head of this offense in 2022. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were absent for long stretches of the year. When we saw Allen return to the lineup, he was far from his old self — I don’t care what the box score says. He can still be a quality starter but we’re in the decline phase here. Williams is a volatile receiver and not a true No. 1, but when he’s not out there, his absence looms large. He is a solid separator downfield and one of the best ball-winners in the game, outside of the elite tier.
Rookie Quentin Johnston is a big X-factor in this. He’s an explosive option and stands out in this receiver room. He brings size and striking YAC ability to the table. I think he helps this team out most on deep routes and crossing patterns. No one was winning in those areas for the 2022 Chargers. I see Johnston having a Christian Watson-like rookie season where he may not catch on right away but is a dynamic, high-ceiling weekly bet by year’s end.
Stands you need to take
- Kellen Moore is a severe upgrade on Joe Lombardi. It can be a bit difficult to separate Moore from Mike McCarthy in Dallas and there are some critiques you can send his way as a play-caller. But a change was needed in LA and Moore brings a ton of progressive ideas and creative wrinkles.
- Williams stays healthy (that would be a nice start) and Allen isn’t close to the cliff. Even if Allen is a diminished player, the presence of Johnston allows him to almost exclusively run out of the slot and live as a zone-beater. You need to be pretty set in your belief of Johnston as a pro-projection. He can’t be a Year 2 bet or require a steep learning curve.
- Herbert shows the doubters up and proves he belongs in the elite tier of quarterbacks. This cast is more than good enough for a high-level passer to graduate.
- The Chargers won’t suffer their annual misfortunes. This franchise isn’t actually cursed.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts offense was one of the most disappointing units in the NFL last year. Alas, I am ready to go back to the well. A new head coach in the razor-sharp Shane Steichen paired with the most athletic quarterback tester we’ve seen enter the league in Anthony Richardson marks a total sea change for Indy.
Richardson was a polarizing prospect. I tend to fall in the camp that he’s not raw but he’s definitely inexperienced. Richardson has rare athletic traits — don’t come for me; he is objectively the most athletic quarterback to ever be tested at the NFL Scouting Combine — and was underrated as a processor from the pocket. Guys that navigate the pocket like he does and don’t flinch under duress can usually get the accuracy tightened up. He is unlikely to be at his best in Year 1 but he should still be able to thrive because this surrounding cast is very good.
The receiver room has the potential to be a strong unit. Michael Pittman Jr. has been hampered by quarterback play but when isolated from surroundings, you see a star in the making. He’s an excellent route runner who thrives over the middle and in the intermediate areas. Those routes in particular will be key in this RPO-heavy offense. Pittman dominated first-read targets last season, per Fantasy Points Data, and both JJ Zachariason and Ben Gretch have done research to show how RPOs can boost target totals to the moon, even in run-heavy offenses. If Richardson can swim, this is Pittman's year.
The other pass-catchers around Pittman are quality players. Alec Pierce is a Mike Williams-like vertical X-receiver who wins contested catches. Josh Downs is an explosive slot prospect I loved in this year’s draft. Jelani Woods has all the athletic traits and size to break out at tight end.
There’s a small concern around the certified bad vibes surrounding Jonathan Taylor and the team right now amid contract negotiations. Taylor is on the PUP and his agent and team owner are trading barbs on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Not ideal.
Taylor has been the team’s best offensive player the last two seasons. Sharing a backfield with Richardson can make him even more efficient. Hopefully, this resolves itself and team owner Jim Irsay can keep family business inside the house.
Stands you need to take
- Steichen is able to replicate his efforts working with Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts early in their respective careers to build a comfortable offense around another young quarterback. Richardson’s play style is somewhere between those two quarterbacks.
- Pittman is an alpha-level wideout who can dominate targets but is flanked by intriguing options. Those guys being good enough to keep the offense moving but a level or two below Pittman — I think Downs could close this gap in time — is crucial to the fourth-year receiver’s outlook.
- Taylor rebounds off a “down” year. Better said, he just stays healthy and finds some easier rushing lanes working with a mobile quarterback. He also has to remain a double-digit touchdown threat even with Richardson siphoning some red-zone runs.
- The offensive line, which had a ghastly 2022, finds its collective footing this season. Quenton Nelson gets back to All-Pro form and other young guys step up.
- Lastly, Richardson isn’t as raw or flawed a prospect as some of the naysayers believed in draft season. It’s certainly a leap of faith to take on a player with such little experience and so few collegiate peaks. The Colts elected to take that plunge. And it was likely because they believed their surrounding talent is equipped to support him.
I am inclined to agree.
