Fantasy Football TE Exit Interview: Youth is served in this new era at the position
The fact has been stated several times over the last few weeks, but it doesn't make it any less shocking.
The best fantasy tight end in 2023 was a rookie.
This is headline news. This is the world flipped upside down. If there's one position where fantasy managers have learned not to trust the new players, it's at tight end.
So yes, Sam LaPorta basically broke the game in Detroit, even if it was largely fueled by touchdown equity. He's already a star, and the future is bright. Detroit hit a home run with this pick.
But almost as shocking was the second-half decline of Travis Kelce.
Kelce still finished as the TE2 in cumulative scoring, and the TE1 if you prefer per-game average. (In all rank data here, I only used the first 17 weeks; Week 18 was ignored). But Kelce ended the year in a gigantic funk. He only scored one touchdown in his final nine games, and he was a 72-yard dud in the two final rounds of the fantasy playoffs.
Kelce finished 26th in Value Based Drafting Rank at the end of the year, a margin-analysis way of scoring fantasy players (hat tip, Joe Bryant). It's Kelce's lowest VBD tag in eight years.
Kelce wasn't a key figure when it came to making the finals of your Yahoo fantasy league. A modest 20.4% of the Kelce teams were alive into the final week, a modest seventh at the position. The six players who graded higher: Trey McBride (29%), LaPorta (25%), Jake Ferguson (23.5%), Evan Engram (23%), George Kittle (22.7%) and David Njoku (21.6%).
There are a lot of good players on that list, but maybe superstar tight ends are coming back to the pack. McBride was the only target dominator on the finalist list; most of the players listed are the No. 2 options on their teams. Even with Kelce, his yardage prop was routinely listed below Rashee Rice's yardage prop at the end of the season.
Like most positions, the preseason ADP prices were a mixed bag when it came to the eventual tight end returns. Of the Top 21 tight ends drafted, six of them earned my green tag (hit), eight of them were yellow (some good, some bad) and seven earned the red ink (they hurt your team). The green list does not include McBride, the TE31 on draft day; he was a late-developing story, but definitely a needle mover in the second half as a waiver-wire hero.
Let's examine the Top 21, grouping them by color grade. (If you'd like to skip to the conclusions, jump to the Too Long, Didn't Read section at the end.)
Green-Light Tight Ends — Hits
T.J. Hockenson — Hockenson unfortunately got hurt in Week 16, but he graded as the TE3 in both per-game scoring and in cumulative points. Hockenson needs volume to keep this company, as he averaged a modest 10.1 yards per catch.
George Kittle — If you like downfield splash plays, Kittle is your guy. Kittle had 31 grabs of 20 yards or more — 10 more than second-place David Njoku — and made 15.7 YPC on his grabs. If only we got something for Kittle's exquisite blocking.
Evan Engram — He battled a touchdown allergy for half a year, then went haywire down the stretch. Not everything in Jacksonville was a December heartbreaker.
David Njoku — You needed to ride out a mediocre first half, but Njoku went ballistic when Joe Flacco joined the Browns.
Sam LaPorta — A willing blocker, a smart route runner, dynamic in the red area. Other than the Week 18 injury, this was a delightful debut. Iowa has an amazing legacy with these tight ends (Kittle, Hockenson, LaPorta).
Jake Ferguson — He never looked like an explosive player, but he carried a high snap share and was always a factor in the red area.
(McBride isn't listed here because he was drafted as TE31, but obviously he was an unmistakable right answer in the final three weeks. Same story with Isaiah Likely, who was drafted TE26.)
[More Exit Interviews: Josh Allen reigns supreme at QB]
Yellow-Light Tight Ends — Take the good with the bad
Travis Kelce — The final nine weeks were soul-crushing, but he still finished second in both per-game scoring and in overall points. The problem is that Kelce, on average, cost you a top-10 pick in the summer. That was not a profit.
Mark Andrews — He was good, if not electric, for the most of the year, then got hurt in his 10th game. Isaiah Likely was sharp as the Andrews replacement.
Dallas Goedert — Maybe he's destined to always be a good player but not quite a star. I've stopped dreaming about upside here.
Dalton Kincaid — He had a midseason spike when Dawson Knox got hurt, but had some quiet games in December. Kincaid's future is obviously very bright.
Dalton Schultz — Strictly vanilla in a world of Rocky Roads. At least he's tied to plus quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Juwan Johnson — He was useful late if you followed the touchdown equity.
Cole Kmet — The Bears' offense was hard to watch at times, but Kmet still shows the potential to be a regular top-10 tight end. He easily beat his modest TE17 ADP.
Gerald Everett — A boring par with the Chargers, an offense that didn't give us any birdies.
Red Light Tight Ends — The Misses
Darren Waller — Hurt much of the year, then came back to an offense helmed by backup quarterbacks.
Kyle Pitts — At least our Arthur Smith nightmare is over. Can the Falcons upgrade the quarterback room? Pitts is still young, headed into his age-24 season next year.
Pat Freiermuth — Injuries and horrible quarterback play made him an early-season cut.
Tyler Higbee — A lot of Rams popped this year, but Higbee wasn't one of them.
Chigoziem Okonkwo — I still think he's an exciting downfield option, but the Titans never really figured out how to utilize him.
Greg Dulcich — The Broncos demoted him early, so at least you moved on quickly.
Luke Musgrave — He wasn't even the best rookie tight end on the roster.
Too Long, Didn't Read
— Kelce heads into a crossroads season next year, stepping into his age-35 campaign. Andy Behrens didn't rank Kelce on his initial Top 24 Mock Draft, and I think that's the right call. I'll be reactive with Kelce at next year's draft table, not proactive.
— I would like to draft young players at this position, if possible; that doesn't necessarily mean I'm looking for another LaPorta rookie miracle, but there are several talents here at arrow-up ages. LaPorta will be 23, Kmet 25, Ferguson 25, Kincaid 25, even Pitts a mere 24. Njoku could be a fun pick into his age-28 season, based on what was unlocked the final month or so. Okonkwo steps into his age-25 year; maybe I'm not done chasing him as the late-round flier.
— Imagine what McBride might do if the Cardinals get him going in the red zone next season. He scored just two touchdowns on his 100 targets. Pitts, Goedert and Engram were also stuck at three touchdowns.
— Don't get rid of the tight end position, fantasy is better with more choices and more options in roster construction.
Next week we'll look at the running backs and wide receivers.
For both per-game ranks and end-of-season cumulative ranks, I used the data from the first 17 games and ignored Week 18