Round 1 NFL Draft Fantasy Football Spin: Wideouts jostle for position, but Thursday's final pick was most important
Man, I needed that.
How long has our country been in shutdown mode? Days turn into weeks turn into months. Are all of our internal clocks broken? We know all the games are canceled indefinitely. My routine is a bit of a mess these days, like anyone else’s.
But player drafts, they’re not canceled. And for about four hours Thursday, the NFL unveiled the first round of the 2020 Draft. It was smooth for the most part, and the House Hunters element of the live video was an unexpected delight. I had no idea I’d enjoy this draft as much as I did.
Fantasy managers received constant food for thought, as 11 offensive skill players were drafted in the first 32 selections. Four quarterbacks were taken — three in the Top 6 — six receivers got the call, and a running back landed on the way out. Let’s take a first look at the fantasy implications, understanding that much will change between now and the actual games — heck, a lot of talent will fly off the board Friday — and we need to make our initial rankings, as always, in pencil.
Elite WR class featured heavily in first round
Henry Ruggs III, Raiders, Pick 12: The ghost of Al Davis made this pick — the godfather of the Raiders liked nothing greater than speed on the outside. But does Derek Carr have the arm to keep up with Ruggs? Has Jon Gruden seemed like a modern offensive designer the last two years? Ruggs might turn into one of those DeSean Jackson field stretchers, more valuable to his overall offense than he is for fantasy purposes.
Jerry Jeudy, Broncos, Pick 15: Team president John Elway looked like the cat that swallowed the canary; he landed the surest wideout in the class, and didn’t have to trade up to do so. The Broncos are now loaded with Jeudy and budding star Courtland Sutton, not to mention intriguing sophomore TE Noah Fant. But is Drew Lock the right quarterback to maximize these weapons?
CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys, Pick 17: The most favorable Lamb comp I’ve seen is DeAndre Hopkins (the body control is eerily similar); the weakest one I’ve seen is Chad Johnson. Dallas would be thrilled if Lamb turned into either of those players. Dak Prescott’s fantasy value is through the roof, as he tries to keep Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and Ezekiel Elliott all happy (TE Blake Jarwin is also an interesting sleeper candidate). The only downside to Lamb’s initial fantasy value is the crowded usage tree in Dallas; the Cowboys can take their time grooming him into a primary player. (This will be the first year Prescott isn’t a ridiculous bargain; now you’ll have to pay up for him.)
Jalen Reagor, Eagles, Pick 21: Perhaps you’re old enough to remember when a Percy Harvin comparison was a compliment. The Eagles have studs at tight end and an intriguing featured back, but Carson Wentz received almost zero help from his old and deteriorating wideouts last year. Reagor’s path to playing time makes him one of the class’s most interesting 2020 picks; also consider that Wentz is a monstrous upgrade from the spotty quarterbacks Reagor played with at TCU. The Eagles will love designing creative plays for Reagor.
Justin Jefferson, Vikings, Pick 22: Although some of Jefferson’s skills parallel those of Adam Thielen, the Vikings desperately needed a second wideout to help out Thielen. Perhaps they’ll throw Thielen outside the numbers and ask Jefferson to be the primary slot option. Mike Zimmer never met a running game he didn’t want to cuddle with, but at least Kirk Cousins has another instant option of note. I’m also curious to see what TE Irv Smith can do in his second season.
Brandon Aiyuk, Niners, Pick 25: I’m always excited when Kyle Shanahan gets a new toy to play with, and the Niners clearly got someone they coveted — they traded up to secure this pick. But keep in mine Aiyuk is coming off core muscle surgery, and the Niners already have two star targets in TE George Kittle and WR Deebo Samuel. And we can’t say Jimmy Garoppolo is a star-maker at quarterback.
My initial redraft rankings from this receiver group (2020 value only): Reagor, Jefferson, Jeudy, gap, Lamb and Ruggs, bigger gap, Aiyuk.
Rookie QBs bring intrigue, but patience is needed
Joe Burrow, Bengals, Pick 1: He’ll start right away, given his monster 2019 season and advanced age. But Burrow gets high marks for intelligence, maturity, and athleticism — and he’ll probably tack on some fantasy value through his willingness to run. And while the Bengals have a rebuild ahead of them, there’s plenty of talent on offense (Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, hopefully A.J. Green, John Ross). Burrow can be a higher-end QB2 in his first season. I’m not ashamed to admit, I loved every second of his Heisman speech.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins, Pick 5: Although Miami might fantasy itself a sleeper playoff candidate, the prudent move is to sit back on Tagovailoa, make sure his hip is 100 percent. Ryan Fitzpatrick (last seen ruining New England’s bye) can hold down the fort for a while. We don’t have to consider Tua as a 2020 fantasy draft commodity until Miami’s timetable crystalizes a bit.
Justin Herbert, Chargers, Pick 6: Herbert’s got the body, arm, and mind for the position, but his stock dropped at the end of his senior year. Then again, he finished the year with a juicy completion percentage and touchdown/interception ratio, and the Ducks were not blessed with great skill talent. The Chargers could take their time grooming Herbert — Tyrod Taylor is a capable stopgap — but eventually Herbert will get to work with LA’s outstanding pass catchers. Maybe it seems weird when a quarterback at sixth overall isn’t seen as a sure thing, but I can sign off on the long-term upside here.
Jordan Love, Packers, Pick 26: On some levels, this pick makes a lot of sense. Love is one of the younger quarterback prospects, a terrific athlete who still lacks polish. Why not give him a year or two to learn and gradually take over the starting job? Ah, but then there’s incumbent Aaron Rodgers, a walk-in Hall of Famer who can’t be happy the Packers drafted someone not designed to help the 2020 team. If you like a good soap opera, get your popcorn ready.
Chiefs end Round 1 with draft’s key fantasy pick
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs, Pick 32: I understand those that pan this selection — the Chiefs already had a loaded offense and a spotty defense. Why not take a linebacker or defensive back? But anytime Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes add a new toy to the toy box, I can’t help but get excited. And in the pinball world of today’s NFL, “outscore the other guys” doesn’t sound bad to me.
Edwards-Helaire stepped up his receiving last year (44-453, 8.2), can make plays in space, and gets high marks for his hands and ball security. Maybe he’ll share time with Damien Williams, or maybe he’ll throw Williams out of the way.
The fantasy irony of the first round is that Edwards-Helaire was the last pick on Thursday, but he’s the guy you’ll have to spend the most time thinking about. You don't have to prioritize the rookie wideouts, though they all have fun eventual upsides. Burrow is a solid QB2, while the other signal-callers need time.
