Fantasy Football Running Back Fades: Big names could disappoint in 2022
The Yahoo Fantasy Football crew is identifying the specific players at each position they're fading this draft season. It could be for any number of reasons: They're not high on the player, the draft cost is too much or a situation is set up for disappointment. Next up, the running back picks from Andy, Matt, Scott and Dalton.
Taking a risk in fading the defending champs' lead rusher
Andy Behrens: This one could absolutely come back to haunt me, but I haven't drafted Cam Akers anywhere so far this summer, nor have I been tempted. His return from injury in the postseason was heroic, obviously, but we can't just ignore the fact that he was brutally inefficient. Akers averaged just 2.6 YPC in the playoffs, rarely shaking a tackler and almost never breaking off a significant gain. We can't pretend an Achilles injury won't potentially have long-term consequences. For me, the gap between Akers' ADP and Darrell Henderson's is simply too large. Those two could easily share the workload.
Avoid veterans in the Dead Zone
Matt Harmon: I think you could essentially punt on running backs in Rounds 4 to 6 of most drafts this year and feel really good about your teams. I don’t care if you have taken just one running back prior to that range either. Don’t worry about having the prettiest roster after the draft, filling every starting spot with a name-brand player or having Twitter love the screenshot of your team. Chaos rules supreme in the NFL and chaos will hit that screenshotted team at some point.
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Running backs in that range — named the RB Dead Zone in fantasy circles — are particularly susceptible to chaos. A perfect example for me this year is David Montgomery.
The veteran back would likely need all of the volume to be fantasy relevant in what’s likely to be a miserable Bears offense. There are enough reasons to be spooked by at best a possible lower workload under direction by a new Bears coaching staff or at worst a straight committee with the confirmed good-at-football, Khalil Herbert.
I truly don’t care how long Montgomery sits in the draft queue as the remaining top player on your cheatsheet — there won’t be a realistic range where I want you to take him.
Passing on a superstar's current ADP
Scott Pianowski: The good news on Alvin Kamara is that a 2022 suspension appears less likely than it did a few months back. But so many other things are headed in the wrong direction; Drew Brees is two years gone, Sean Payton finally left, and this year's Saints might have the worst offensive line Kamara has ever run behind. Maybe you can ignore Kamara's disappointing efficiency last year, but I can't. Maybe you trust Jameis Winston, but I don't. And the Saints have admitted they don't want Kamara to collect 80-plus catches in perpetuity.
You want Kamara in the second round? I won't be contesting you.
A young star-in-the-making could disappoint in 2022
Dalton Del Don: Volume was huge for Najee Harris during his impressive rookie campaign, when he played a whopping 171 more snaps than the next closest RB yet ranked 48th in fantasy points per opportunity. Coaches were already talking about lessening Harris’ workload earlier this summer, which will be made easier by the emergence of rookie Jaylen Warren.
With Ben Roethlisberger no longer around relying on dump-offs and playing for a team with one of the worst offensive lines and quarterback situations in all of football, Harris is unlikely to justify his lofty ADP.
