Fantasy Football Rookie Rundown: De'Von Achane, Puka Nacua steal the first-month show
It’s time for the weekly Rookie Report, though this one is going to have a different flavor to it than the previous ones. We’re looking at 10 rookies total, with five having surpassed their ADPs and expectations coming into the season. The second five are players who have gotten off to slower starts than hoped for, and their forecast for possibly jumping up as the season progresses.
Two players who are intentionally not included in either list of five are Bijan Robinson and Anthony Richardson. Those two came into the season with great expectations and have met them. Robinson was regularly a first-round pick in fantasy drafts; the only wart on his resume this season is that he has just one touchdown (receiving).
Richardson came into the league with a Superman reputation, as the most athletically gifted quarterback at 6-4 and 244 pounds, running the 40-yard dash in a jaw-dropping 4.43. He’s the first quarterback in NFL history to rush for a touchdown in each of his first three games, and his 23.1 fantasy points per game are fourth among quarterbacks.
So the rest of this piece is going to group players into “Fantasy Grand Openings” for players who have surpassed their projections. The second five are “Fantasy Slow Starts” — players to keep an eye on for the latter stages of the season to see if they can impact fantasy squads.
Fantasy Grand Openings
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
How often does a rookie quarterback break into the top 10 for fantasy football? Justin Herbert in 2020 was the most recent player to hold that distinction — he finished as the QB9. If Stroud keeps wowing the NFL community, he’ll be the next one. He’s already QB10 after three consecutive games with two touchdown passes apiece and a pair of 300-yard efforts.
Stroud announced himself as someone to be taken seriously when he threw for 384 yards and a pair of scores in Week 2 against the Colts, with three receivers catching at least six balls each and amassing 70-plus yards. Nico Collins has emerged as his top target, with 80, 146 and 168 receiving yards in three separate games.
Stroud is throwing with the touch and anticipation that were hinted at in his Ohio State days. But few people could have predicted that he would display those qualities immediately on a Houston team with a new coaching staff and an offensive line hit hard with injuries.
Love CJ Stroud's ability to work throws so that the ball always gets out on time, no matter what the platform is. It really shows up on RPOs and plays where he's under pressure. pic.twitter.com/rPxluwFhEO
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 4, 2023
Stroud gets a tough test with the Texans’ next two opponents, as the Falcons are third with just 747 passing yards allowed, and the Saints are 13th with 856 yards. Though, the way Stroud has been passing tests, don’t bet against him.
Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
The way Nacua has burst onto the scene after just four games, well, it’s perfect that SoFi Stadium has Hollywood in the backdrop. The BYU receiver battled injuries after starting his college career at Washington, and he never caught more than 48 passes in any collegiate season. A fifth-round pick in the NFL Draft, yes, Nacua is just the candidate to set the NFL record with 39 receptions in his first four games in the league.
Nacua has done his best to fill in for the gaping hole left behind by the absence of Cooper Kupp, with the rookie filling up the stat sheet weekly on his way to 501 receiving yards. That’s good for second behind Justin Jefferson. That’s the company that Nacua is keeping.
He’s become a waiver wire gold strike, paying off whatever high prices that fantasy managers bid in FAB as the WR5 through four weeks. Nacua is getting some company from Kupp on the practice field this week, and they could team up similarly to how Kupp and Robert Woods were regularly among the top pass catchers for the Rams. As recently as 2020, Woods was the WR13 for fantasy, with Kupp WR27. The previous year they were both top 20, so there is precedent in the Sean McVay offense for two receivers being viable for fantasy.
This week, they will try and keep up with the NFC champion Eagles, who have allowed three 300-yard passers this season. Jefferson cut through them for 159 yards and 11 receptions in Week 2, with Terry McLaurin putting up an 8/86/0 line on them last week. Nacua could put up some numbers even alongside Kupp and continue to be one of the waiver wire adds of the fantasy season.
De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins
If you blinked you might have missed Achane bursting through the defense for a long run.
As unexpected as Nacua’s brilliance has been, Achane's might be even moreso. Battling a leg injury late in the preseason, being inactive for Week 1 and getting just two touches the following week, little was expected of the speedy rookie. When he exploded for 233 total yards, four touchdowns and 49.30 fantasy points against Denver in Week 3, the only complaints from fantasy managers were those who saw those points on the bench. Suffice it to say, he’s delivered far beyond the RB39 and overall pick 109 in preseason ADP.
The big plays are plentiful with Achane. His explosive-run rate (runs 15-plus yards) is a league-leading 18.5% and he’s gained 203 of his 309 rushing yards on those big plays, according to Fantasy Points Data. Achane may just be getting started. The rest-of-season outlook is plenty sunny in South Florida. The Dolphins have played just one home game, and will have the Patriots and Bills coming to Miami in December/January. The home cooking could keep Achane running hot for fantasy managers.
Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens
Through the NFL Draft process, Flowers had lots of, well, flowers thrown at him by scouts and analysts who loved the ability and collegiate production of the Boston College product. Taking his talents to Baltimore, Flowers’ game has translated to the NFL very smoothly.
Flowers’ 29 targets are 11 more than star tight end Mark Andrews. The rookie’s 124 routes run are 40 more than Andrews (who did miss a game). Flowers at the very least has become the 1A in this passing attack, and Lamar Jackson will only get more comfortable with the Todd Monken offense.
Flowers should continue to be a major part of this offense, with Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Detroit and Arizona coming up in the next four weeks. None of those defenses are higher than 21st in passing yards allowed.
Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions
Through four games, LaPorta has smashed the narrative that rookie tight ends are to be avoided in fantasy. He’s been the No. 2 receiving target for the Lions’ high-powered offense, trailing only Amon-Ra St. Brown in targets, receptions and receiving yards. His 20.6% target share also is just behind St. Brown, one of the league’s top target hogs.
LaPorta has drawn at least five targets in each game, with a high of 11 when he caught eight balls for 84 yards and his first touchdown. He’s No. 2 among tight ends in fantasy points, just behind T.J. Hockenson. Carolina is on deck in Week 5. LaPorta is not leaving fantasy starting rosters anytime soon.
Players to watch
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
No greater authority than Austin Ekeler is better at analyzing where Gibbs stands after four games. Ekeler, with Matt Harmon on the latest "Ekeler's Edge," mentioned that he admired Gibbs’ talent, yet he saw the rookie’s youth coming out in how he attacked runs compared with veteran David Montgomery. Ekeler said that Gibbs will learn from Montgomery on how to hit holes properly.
Gibbs has totaled nine, 14, 18 and 12 touches through four games. That’s not bad for a rookie. Montgomery can take the hard, early-down work and Gibbs can keep integrating himself in the offense. Running a blur of a 4.36 40-yard dash, Gibbs has a gear that Montgomery does not. He’ll make big plays happen at some point in this season, and it could happen as soon as this week against the Panthers, who allowed 149 total yards to Minnesota running backs last week, and over 200 yards the week prior to the Seahawks.
It will just be hard to predict when those breakaway runs happen. Fantasy managers who invested an early pick on Gibbs may wish for more consistent production, but that will be hard to bet on as long as he’s got Montgomery as a running mate.
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
With a high of 204 passing yards in three games (he sat one out with an ankle injury), there are whispers that the Panthers may have taken the wrong quarterback first overall.
It’s early. There was similar talk in 2020, after Herbert blasted off, while Tua Tagovailoa (taken a pick earlier) struggled to get his footing early in his career. With an ADP around QB20, Young was taken to be more of a backup in 12-team, single-quarterback fantasy leagues.
With Adam Thielen acting as the WR1 for the Panthers, he’s had at least eight targets in his last three games. Those have been primarily short to mid-range targets, as Carolina does not have much deep speed on the outside. Reports have come out about the Panthers being in the market to trade for a No. 1 wide receiver to help Young, but that’s just talk for now. There will be growing pains for Young, and the hope is that he can keep Thielen viable for fantasy. Wide receiver Jonathan Mingo drew comparisons to A.J. Brown in the draft process, so he might be someone to keep an eye on in the latter half of the season, too.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
If there ever was a player whose momentum was derailed because of injury, it’s Smith-Njigba. The preseason hype machine was pumping with great camp reports and highlight-reel plays. The expectation was that he would at the very least work into a rotation with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. A fractured bone in his wrist that required surgery in late August brought the hype train to a halt, and though he didn’t miss any game action, Smith-Njigba has a high of five catches and 34 yards on the season.
His routes run in the Monday night thumping of the Giants were 21, just behind Tyler Lockett’s 24. Smith-Njigba had been trailing by about 10-plus routes run the previous two games, so this is a positive trend. The bye week coming now for the Seahawks can be a bit of a reset for the top receiver taken in the 2023 NFL Draft. While Lockett and Metcalf will continue to get their targets, if Smith-Njigba continues to run a near-equal number of routes he’ll become more of a factor for fantasy as the season rolls on.
Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks
Though fantasy managers would have preferred a different landing spot for the UCLA product, by the time August rolled around and fantasy drafts started to take place, Charbonnet had been talked about as a possible Zero RB target who gets work in the passing game and takes enough of the load off Kenneth Walker III to be fantasy viable.
That role has yet to develop.
Charbonnet has just seven targets through four games, and on passing plays he’s been on the field for just 34.8% of the snaps, compared to 51.8% for Walker. On the field for 73.4% of the running plays, Walker — the RB5 thus far — has almost tripled Charbonnet’s snaps. It’s going to be a long slog to get Charbonnet into the discussion as a fantasy starter, or even a bye-week substitute. Like Smith-Njigba, perhaps he works into a larger role after the bye week.
Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers
The lanky wide receiver out of TCU had quite a bit of attention paid to him to see what his workload would look like after Mike Williams suffered a torn ACL in Week 3. After being on the field for 13 of 50 passing plays in the third game, Johnston’s participation increased to 22 of 31 passing plays. Though he only caught one of three targets for 18 receiving yards, Johnston being on the field more is a trend in the right direction.
Ekeler talked about the freak-of-nature athleticism that Johnston possesses at 6'4, 215 pounds. Johnston has even surpassed Ekeler’s marks on certain drills on the Chargers’ internal leaderboard. With Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert seventh in the league with 145 pass attempts, there will be plenty of footballs in the air in this offense. Johnston is a player to watch in the second half, when rookie receivers occasionally pop.