Fantasy Football Receiver Fades: Deebo Samuel headlines big names to avoid in drafts
The Yahoo Fantasy Football crew is identifying the specific players at each position they're fading this draft season. It could be for any number of reasons: They're not high on the player, the draft cost is too much or a situation is set up for disappointment. Next up, the wide receivers Andy, Matt, Scott and Dalton are avoiding.
Don't expect Deebo to repeat 2021 success
Dalton Del Don: Deebo Samuel is being drafted as a borderline top-five fantasy receiver despite not ranking top-50 in routes run or top-25 in targets last season. And his role in the passing game this year remains a bit of a question mark with San Francisco turning to Trey Lance, who worked exclusively with Brandon Aiyuk throughout summer while Samuel mostly held out for a new contract. San Francisco's new starting QB is going to attack an entirely different level of the field than Jimmy Garoppolo.
Samuel is a yards-after-the-catch juggernaut who’ll be used all over the field, but last season was the first he didn’t miss a game. It also marked the first time he ever saw more than 81 targets. Samuel somehow rushed for eight scores last season on just 59 attempts, and the 49ers’ RB room enters 2022 much healthier and far deeper. Samuel simply isn’t projected to see nearly the same volume as other receivers being drafted around him, making him an extremely risky fantasy pick.
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Waddle will have tough time delivering on ADP
Matt Harmon: A classic case of “love the player hate the ADP,” I haven’t found myself drafting much of Jaylen Waddle this year. Waddle is a versatile receiver who can win down the field more often than he was asked to in the 2021 Miami offense. However, it’s just tough to make the math work in Miami. I struggle to see how you can project enough volume for both Waddle and Tyreek Hill to hit their ADPs (46.7 and 24.5, respectively) in what’s likely to be a run-heavy offense tied to a quarterback we still have questions about.
Either every other player in this passing game has to be completely irrelevant or Tua needs to take a massive step forward. I’m not comfortable with either wager. I can’t see a multi-top 15 receiver offense in Miami this year. While I like Waddle, if I’m betting on a Dolphins receiver to shine this year I’m going with a player in Hill who has already demonstrated he’s an elite-level talent.
Not expecting a Thomas rebound in New Orleans
Scott Pianowski: If the Saints are great this year, it's going to be a rough time for me. But hey, I call them as I see them. I don't trust Jameis Winston, and I don't want to draft Michael Thomas after two lost years. Thomas's game linked up perfectly with Drew Brees, a lot of quick throws into tight windows, close to the line of scrimmage. Winston is a deeper-throw YOLO guy. And we can't ignore that New Orleans has added more target competition, drafting Chris Olave and signing Jarvis Landry. Once the cheese goes bad on a player, don't bet on it going good again. Don't be seduced by Thomas' glory days.
I'll also co-sign the Del Don take on Samuel; Deebo is my favorite player I'm unlikely to draft, and it's depressing to think about. But we're just trying to make the best decisions we can.
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Injury skepticism lingers with Godwin
Andy Behrens: There's really been nothing but positive news to this point on Chris Godwin's recovery from a mid-December ACL tear. It seems likely we're going to see him in September, perhaps in opening week. Still, someone in every draft is always willing to take him as a set-it-and-forget-it WR2, which is simply too rich for me. Godwin will be just nine months removed from a major knee injury when the season begins, so we can't assume he'll be an every-snap receiver, as dominant as ever. If you're bullish on him in 2022, I won't fight you for his services.
