Fantasy Football RB Report: Is Bigsby Tank-ing over the Jags' backfield?
Running backs remain king in fantasy football. While it feels like there are more elite quarterbacks and wide receivers than ever before, the amount of consistent, dependable running backs is dwindling. This makes it all the more important to find value at running back in fantasy football. In order to help you do that, I will be taking a look at a few backfields each week that stick out based on recent trends or new information we learned.
We had our first set of byes in Week 5 — a sign that the NFL season is flying by. Bye weeks are always an interesting variable in fantasy; you never want to base your draft strategy off them, but you could still find yourself starting some seemingly random players over the next month or two. This has heavy implications at the running back position specifically, as the RB2s on certain teams can be the ideal spot starters during a particularly impactful bye week. With that in mind, let’s get into some of my top team takeaways and trends to monitor heading into Week 6.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Should this be Tank Bigsby’s backfield? The dynamic second-year back has now out-produced starter Travis Etienne Jr. in all three games he has played at least 15% of snaps, and it isn’t particularly close. Bigsby has 42 more rushing yards on 19 fewer carries than Etienne this season, which actually sells him a bit short — Bigsby has been the single most efficient running back in football this season.
Bigsby already entered Week 5 ranking first among running backs yards per attempt, yards after contact attempt, and breakaway run percentage, and then ripped off two electric scores in the Jaguars' first win of the season from 65 and 19 yards out to stay at the top of those stats. Bigsby out-snapped Etienne for the first time, playing 40% of snaps to Etienne’s 39%. Bigsby also saw carries from the 4- and 7-yard line while Etienne was not used on the goal line at all. Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson insisted after the game that Bigsby would not replace Etienne on the Jaguars depth chart, but actions speak a lot louder than words.
The only area where Etienne is better than him is in the passing game, but Bigsby’s home-run hitting ability still makes him a FLEX-level fantasy starter at worst. Proceed with extreme caution with Etienne moving forward, who I would consider a game-script-dependent FLEX play.
Atlanta Falcons
Bijan Robinson has been a pretty massive disappointment in fantasy thus far. He has yet to break 100 rushing yards in a game and currently ranks as the overall RB21. Many of us expected Robinson to see an uptick in volume to propel him to a top-10 fantasy finish, but Robinson’s usage has actually been fairly similar to his rookie season.
Robinson averaged 12.3 carries and 5.1 targets per game last season. Through five games this season, he is averaging 13.4 carries and 3.8 targets. Robinson has been particularly unproductive in the touchdown department, with just one total score. Tyler Allgeier has continued to be rotated into the backfield on a consistent basis, typically playing one in every three offensive snaps. Allgeier has a higher yard-per-carry mark than Robinson but has failed to get into the end zone.
I am a little bit concerned about Robinson’s fantasy value for the rest of the season. Typically, running backs need to have at least one of the following three qualities to be successful in fantasy: bell-cow level volume, high touchdown production or significant passing game work. As it stands right now, Robinson has none of the above, which puts a rock-solid cap on his ceiling. He is talented enough to produce as an RB2, but I would taper your expectations for Robinson and wouldn’t mind trading him for a more productive but perhaps less popular player. As for Allgeier, I don’t think he is startable based on his smaller role, but he should still be rostered.
Washington Commanders
We last checked in with the Commanders after Week 2, which was before we knew that Jayden Daniels was the real deal. Daniels’ performance the last few weeks would have been impressive for any quarterback and is unheard of for a rookie. The Commanders are far and away the top offense in the league in terms of EPA per play, and Daniels ranks first among quarterbacks in completion percentage over expectation.
Given their overall offensive ceiling, Brian Robinson Jr. can be treated as a top-15 running back while Austin Ekeler is also startable in PPR formats. B-Rob hasn’t been the most efficient with his carries, but he is used heavily in short-yardage situations and has four touchdowns in the last three games. Pair that with double-digit carries per game, and Robinson is an extremely safe play in this elite offense.
Ekeler, meanwhile, was productive on Sunday after missing Week 4 due to injury. He has not seen more than eight carries in any game so far but has been far more efficient with his opportunities than Robinson. Ekeler continues to make an impact through the air, averaging 38 receiving yards a game. Daniels has been a rising tide for all of the players in the Commanders' offense, which could make Robinson and Ekeler some of the biggest draft steals of the season.
Las Vegas Raiders
It looks like Alexander Mattison is on his way to replacing Zamir White as the starting running back in Las Vegas. White missed Week 5 with a groin injury, and Mattison subsequently received a season-high 15 carries. Although he was pretty ineffective with that volume, rushing for just 38 yards, Mattison has still been more productive than White this year. White failed to cross 50 yards rushing in any game before his injury despite averaging about 12 carries a game, having also lost two fumbles. Mattison has also been the Raiders’ primary option on the goal line, with two rushing touchdowns this year within the 2-yard line.
It is unclear how long White will remain out with his injury, but I expect him to have a subdued role even upon his return. This means that Mattison is a fine FLEX starter and bye week replacement, while White should probably stay on your bench and is a potential cut candidate. I don’t have a whole lot of hope for Mattison’s upside because the offense as a whole is a mess, but he should see enough volume to get you through a rough week.
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Quick Hitters
Chicago Bears: D’Andre Swift has turned his season around the last two weeks with back-to-back top five finishes, but I wanted to acknowledge Roschon Johnson’s ascension to the RB2 spot. Johnson has supplanted Khalil Herbert as the main back behind Swift, and punched in a one-yard touchdown after Swift failed to do so on Sunday. Johnson also scored late in the fourth quarter. He can be picked up in leagues this week in the same general tier as Tyler Allgeier or Zach Charbonnet.
Minnesota Vikings: Aaron Jones left the Vikings’ Week 5 win with a hip injury. Jones was ruled week-to-week with the injury, so Ty Chandler is worth rostering if he isn’t already — he had 14 carries as Jones’ replacement on Sunday. It’s possible that Jones doesn’t miss any action because the Vikings are on bye this week, but I’d still be willing to spend 10-20% of my FAB on Chandler given his upside in a high-powered offense.
Miami Dolphins: De’Von Achane left the Dolphins game in the first quarter with a concussion. The Dolphins also have a bye in Week 6, so I expect Achane to be cleared to play after that, but Raheem Mostert would be a top-24 play if Achane’s injury is more serious. Jaylen Wright is also worth a pick up in deeper leagues, as Mostert has already missed some time due to injury to start the year.
