Fantasy Football: RB preview for 2024 drafts
Let's be frank about it; running back is still the most important position in fantasy football. It offers tons of volatility, sure — tons of injury risk. But if you find the right answers at running back — from the draft, the wire, or the trade market — you probably rule the kingdom.
This does not mean our drafts have to start with a heavy running back push like previous generations of drafters did. Bell cows are a dying breed in the NFL, with most teams steering into timeshares and platoons. But I actually find the striation of running-back production to be oddly comforting; it means we can accept fewer points from viable RB2 and RB3 candidates, and there seem to be more potential players to fill those roles.
Although every draft plan needs to be sketched in pencil, so managers can remain open-minded and ready to pivot as live opportunities present themselves, you probably want to lean into a running back shape before your draft starts. Again, you are not forever beholden to this plan; maybe you'll call a nifty audible as your live draft meanders along. But there are three major running-back builds to pick from, and most fantasy managers seem to favor one of them.
— The old school plan is known as Robust RB, where you pick multiple backs with early draft capital.
— The trendy pivot from Robust RB has become Zero RB, where you ignore the position with early picks and look to stock up with upside picks later. The volatility of the position becomes your friend.
— The compromise between Robust RB and Zero RB is the Hero RB (or Anchor RB) approach, the concept of getting one sturdy back to solidify your room, then shelving the hunt for several rounds.
Note that in all three of these strategies, smart fantasy managers are likely to select multiple high-ceiling lottery tickets in the second half of the draft. It's always bothered me when some posit that this is a concept that belongs to Zero RB alone. Good managers understand and embrace this key idea, no matter how their draft started.
I favor the Hero or Anchor RB approach most years, including 2024. Maybe it's because I like compromises. Maybe it's because I'd rather hit a 3-wood off the tee, not a driver. My preference does not have to be your preference, of course. And as I've always said, any strategy can work if you pick the right players.
My strongest RB target
I know the editors want a pick I demand you leave your draft with, but I don't approach the exercise quite in that manner. It always depends, it's always relative. And for managers in multiple leagues, I'd advise for some balance in your portfolio. No matter how great a player is, I don't want him on all my teams. My risk profile doesn't think that way.
That all said, I like the trajectory of Isiah Pacheco's career.
He stepped up his receiving role and his touchdown equity in the second half of 2023, scoring seven times (and catching 31 passes) in his final eight games, including the playoffs. He's tied to a high-octane offense, the best play-caller in the league and the best quarterback in the league. You get buoyancy here (a boutique way of saying "floor") and you also get the upside of an emerging talent entering his third season. Pacheco is a steal when he slides into the third round and is worth considering in Round 2.
Some other big-name targets who fit a Hero RB build nicely:
I will make sure Bijan Robinson is on some of my rosters, now that the Falcons have a plus quarterback and a new voice in charge of the play sheet.
If Gus Edwards could score 13 times in Baltimore, maybe Derrick Henry has a shot at 16-20. I know this isn't a unique take, but sometimes the wisdom of the crowd is the right whisper to listen to.
Jonathan Taylor spread his wings in the second half of 2023 and I would follow head coach Shane Steichen into a burning building.
The Jets might have the NFL's best roster if we ignore everyone's quarterback, and while football obviously doesn't work that way, all they need is an average Aaron Rodgers season and this team probably makes the playoffs. Breece Hall is working behind a stacked offensive line and is set up for success.
One sleeper RB likely to crush his ADP
At minimum I expect Zack Moss to open the year as a co-starter with Chase Brown, and it's possible Moss simply nudges Brown out of the way. Moss profiles as a better goal-line option, and some modern efficiency metrics don't trust Brown as a runner. Early summer buzz pushed Brown onto a lot of sleeper pages and Moss missed the first preseason game due to a short illness, furthering the Brown momentum. But Moss was back running with the starters on Monday; take advantage of the market slightly overcorrecting.
Some other value backs I like:
Devin Singletary has a positive history with Brian Daboll, and the depth behind him might be thin, especially if Tyrone Tracy's injury from Tuesday is significant. Singletary was the RB9 after taking over Houston's starting role in the middle of last year.
Ezekiel Elliott is unlikely to beat Rico Dowdle in the efficiency stats, but Zeke's short-yardage work in recent years is still reliable, no matter that his splash plays have disappeared. Elliott is also a capable pass blocker, which protects his third-down work. He's boring at this stage of his career, but we'll take the boring discount.
Chuba Hubbard and Jerome Ford are essentially placeholder backs for more talented teammates, but what if Jonathon Brooks and Nick Chubb need more time than expected for their returns? I love picks that allow me to get off to a strong push in the opening quarter of a fantasy season, and Hubbard and Ford check that box.
One big-name RB likely to fall short of ADP
Opinions will vary on Alvin Kamara; my esteemed colleague Andy Behrens published some pro-Kamara slants this summer, and Andy is one of the sharpest players around. But this game is about respectful disagreement, and I'm going to offer some.
Kamara steps into his age-29 season, a pocket that often makes us nervous. His fantasy standing last year was mostly propped up by volume — 75 caches, second-most at the position — and lacking in efficiency. Kamara's 6.2 yards per catch was a career worst, and a 2.4-yard drop from the previous season. He also dropped to 3.9 yards per carry and didn't have a single rush over 20 yards. The explosiveness was not there, and when a player hits the back nine of a career, don't bet on trends reversing.
Mesh it all together and we get 5.4 yards per touch, Kamara's third straight drop in that column. It's a long way from the 8.3 YPT we saw his rookie year. And the Saints don't go out of their way to scheme easy touchdowns for Kamara — he's spiked a mere 10 times in his past 28 games. Given the age and declining efficiency, Kamara is an easy fade for me entering 2024.
Other backs I'm fading at ADP:
Jahmyr Gibbs is a splashy player but he'll always be sharing with David Montgomery, and Monty has a little more goal-line equity. Gibbs has also been dinged up this summer, including a hamstring injury from Tuesday.
It's no fun to watch a player's career start to decline, but the ugly Austin Ekeler season last year left a mark. Now he's tied to an offense where Brian Robinson Jr. figures to be the early-down pounder and rookie QB Jayden Daniels could easily be the team's leading rusher.
Top 24 backs for 2024 (half-point PPR scoring)
1. Christian McCaffrey
2. Breece Hall
3. Bijan Robinson
4. Jonathan Taylor
5. Derrick Henry
6. Saquon Barkley
7. Kyren Williams
8. Isiah Pacheco
9. Travis Etienne Jr.
10. Jahmyr Gibbs
11. Josh Jacobs
12. Joe Mixon
13. James Cook
14. Rachaad White
15. De'Von Achane
16. Kenneth Walker III
17. Aaron Jones
18. David Montgomery
19. Alvin Kamara
20. James Conner
21. Rhamondre Stevenson
22. Raheem Mostert
23. Najee Harris
24. Zamir White