Fantasy Football: Ranking TE playoff strength of schedule for all 32 NFL teams
We did strength of schedule for wideouts last week, as well as running backs, but I didn't want to leave the tight ends out. Today we put them through the car wash, trying to figure out what's coming for the money games, Weeks 15-17.
The standard disclaimers apply: The rankings are a mix of data, observation and special sauce. Defensive strength and production yielded over the last two months was weighted heavier than what happened early in the year. I did not add or subtract weight to the location of games, and the possible impact of weather.
Some of you might not even need to play in Week 15 — you're sitting on a valuable, glorious bye week. And obviously if you don't make it to the Championship Game of Week 17, a cupcake finishing draw won't help you one bit. Ranking these schedules in aggregate strength is a mix of usefulness with some expected noise, but I still think there's some value here.
You decide if you agree.
To be clear, the goal of this is not to tell you to start Tyler Higbee over George Kittle because of the future schedule. We're just offering one more tool to add to your toolbox, one more way to break ties or plan for the future, even if it's on the margins.
Teams at the top have the easier TE schedules, and teams at the bottom have the harder ones. Sometimes the easier schedules are more about volume than efficiency; the same general qualifier applies to the bottom of the page. Season to taste.
One more time, these schedules listed are for Weeks 15-17. They do not include Week 18 — which is fantasy-irrelevant to the majority of leagues.
Preamble finished. Here is what the tight end schedules look like, Weeks 15-17.
1. Buccaneers: (at GB, JAC, NO)
I can't say Cade Otton has a floor, but he never comes off the field for the Bucs and he did win last week's game with a late touchdown. It's safe to say Baker Mayfield trusts him.
2. Giants: (at NO, at PHI, LAR)
The schedule is singing for us, but Mark Bavaro isn't walking through that door and Jeremy Shockey isn't either. And even if Darren Waller does (he's run routes this month in practice), I don't think I can trust him without at least one prove-it week.
3. Vikings (at CIN, DET, GB)
Can Nick Mullins save the day at quarterback? T.J. Hockenson was headed for a monster year if Kirk Cousins never got hurt.
4. Steelers: (at Ind, CIN, at SEA)
Like so many teams, the Steelers have no stability at quarterback. Pat Freiermuth probably has one blowup game left in him this year; good luck guessing when it lands.
5. Rams: (WAS, NO, at NYG)
I love the Rams overall as a December to Remember team, but that's a comment about Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Matthew Stafford. The tight ends are always the tertiary guys here.
6. Chargers: (at LV, BUF, at DEN)
With Justin Herbert done for the year, I don't think there's anything to find here.
7. Titans: (HOU, SEA, at HOU)
Chig Okonkwo still doesn't have a touchdown, but he's quietly offered 12-143-0 over the last three games. He's worth a stab in the medium and deeper pools.
8. Lions: (DEN, at MIN, at DAL)
Jared Goff and road games rarely mix, but at least the Lions are climate-controlled for the fantasy playoffs. I will follow Sam LaPorta into a burning building.
9. Panthers: (ATL, GB, at JAC)
The less we say about the Carolina passing game, the better. Guys get open, sure. Can Bryce Young find them?
10. Saints: (NYG, at LAR, at TB)
If Taysom Hill can heal up, I'll consider him a proactive pick. He's still unstoppable around the goal line and can produce points in several different ways.
11. Falcons: (at CAR, IND, at CHI)
Kyle Pitts had a moment last week, but offensive success is so rarely sustainable in Atlanta.
12. 49ers: (at ARI, BAL, at WAS)
George Kittle is probably the least consistent of the four San Francisco superstars, but it's not uncommon for all four of them to get home in the same week.
13. Raiders: (LAC, at KC, at IND)
I still think Michael Mayer has a bright future in this league, but after watching the Raiders set offense back 20 years last week, I have to back away for the short term.
14. Browns: (CHI, at HOU, NYJ)
Nobody has Joe Flacco saving the Browns season, but here we are. And he obviously shows immediate chemistry with David Njoku, a player who's always had a breakout percolating in him.
15. Patriots: (KC, at DEN, at BUF)
Taking from the Andy Behrens clipboard, if the Patriots are going to throw a touchdown pass, Hunter Henry is the most likely player to catch it. But volume is never going to bail you out there.
16. Cowboys: (at BUF, at MIA, DET)
Jake Ferguson is a classic case of trusting the early usage and waiting for it to develop into more fantasy production. He's been a no-brainer starter for several weeks.
17. Broncos: (at DET, NE, LAC)
Russell Wilson occasionally throws a goal-line flip to Adam Trautman, but we can't trust a tight end who's stuck on 28 targets for the year.
18. Colts: (PIT, at ATL, LV)
The Colts rotate their tight ends, so there's nothing to see here. That Michael Pittman Jr. sure is something, though.
19. Jaguars: (BAL, at TB, CAR)
For most of the year Evan Engram was the all-target, no-touchdown guy, but he's smashed that frame in the last month, fantasy's highest-scoring tight end over that period. And last week he did it against the Browns, a defense that has been generally outstanding in marking tight ends. Wheels up.
20. Chiefs: (at NE, LV, CIN)
Travis Kelce is going to be a great player until the day he retires, but over his last six games, he's sitting on a modest one touchdown and 61.8 yards per game. Certainly not bench-worthy numbers, but not what you signed up for given his heavy draft capital. Kelce will probably be one of my fades in 2024.
21. Packers: (TB, at CAR, at MIN)
Tyler Kraft had a touchdown in Week 12, and he's posted 7-101-0 since then. Jordan Love wasn't great at the Giants, but he's still looked like a long-term solution in recent weeks. Kraft makes sense in some leagues as a deeper sleeper.
22. Bills: (DAL, at LAC, NE)
Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid are good at different things, but the Knox return makes the Buffalo tree a little wider, not our preference.
23. Cardinals: (SF, at CHI, at PHI)
Trey McBride might be a proactive sit against the nasty 49ers, but I'll use him against anyone else.
24. Seahawks: (PHI, at TEN, PIT)
The tight ends never get enough volume here to merit serious consideration. Noah Fant is the rare exception to the Iowa tight-end rules.
25. Eagles: (at SEA, NYG, ARI)
Dallas Goedert looked reasonably healthy in his first game back, logging an 84% snap share and catching four passes. But I'm starting to wonder if that true Goedert breakout year isn't destined to happen.
26. Dolphins: (NYJ, DAL, at BAL)
The Dolphins offense is obviously about their wideouts and running backs, not the tight ends. Nothing to see here.
27. Bengals: (MIN, at PIT, at KC)
Tanner Hudson rarely plays a heavy snap share, but he's averaging four catches a week since early October, with about 33.5 yards a week. He can play, and he's shown some rapport with replacement quarterback Jake Browning.
28. Commanders: (at LAR, at NYJ, SF)
It's still shocking to me that Sam Howell is having a quasi-breakout year, at least for fantasy purposes, but no one is being dragged along. (This is a recording.)
29. Ravens: (at JAC, at SF, MIA)
Isaiah Likely busted out last week, but that Niners game comes at a horrible time, and the Ravens' passing distribution isn't always sticky, week after week.
30. Bears: (at CLE, ARI, ATL)
What a fun and frisky team the Bears have become. Kmet hasn't been lucky with touchdown equity lately, but he does have a solid 36-308-2 line over his last six games, with 51.3 yards per week.
31. Jets: (at MIA, WAS, at CLE)
Ty Conklin is probably their third-best pass-catcher, if that matters to you.
32. Texans: (at TEN, CLE, TEN)
Throw in the C.J. Stroud injury at the worst possible time and you can pull the plug on the Houston tight ends. The Titans are obviously vulnerable on the flanks, but the seam coverage has been fine.
