Fantasy Football Pulse Check: Was Amari Cooper the key to Bills' passing game?
The NFL blessed us with two blockbuster trades this week — Davante Adams and Amari Cooper. The Adams trade felt like a long time coming — and at the aggressive urging of Aaron Rodgers. However, the Cooper trade filled a much-needed hole for the Buffalo Bills. Rather than a trade to continue stacking offensive talent, the Bills had a clear void in a struggling receiving corps and this was a move that could reshape the Bills offense moving forward.
The Bills entered 2024 with mixed expectations for their new-look receiving corps. With the loss of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, the Bills made additions in free agency and drafted Keon Coleman. While there’s been mild glimmers of hope, it’s been tough sledding thus far.
In addition to providing a much-needed offensive boost for the Bills, Cooper's addition offers the upside and opportunity he’s been lacking all season with Deshaun Watson. Cooper’s 2024 had been a disaster aside from one boom game in Week 3 where he finished as the overall WR4 with two touchdowns. His next-best finish was WR44, where he had just eight fantasy points.
While Cooper has been a boom-bust wide receiver by nature, that level of production was well below expectations and — for the most part — outside of his control. Connecting with Josh Allen would be an immediate increase in his usage.
Heading into Week 7, every Bills’ pass-catcher was averaging less than 10 fantasy points per game in half PPR. Khalil Shakir led the way, averaging 9.5 fantasy points per game. The target share was flat in the receiving corps, with Shakir receiving 21 targets in five games (one less than all other pass-catchers), Coleman with 20, Mack Hollins with 19 and Curtis Samuel with 17. Many predicted that the lack of reliability in the receiving corps would make Dalton Kincaid the target lead — and thus far that had been the case with the TE at 31 targets on the season. Despite leading the team in looks, Kincaid averaged just less than seven fantasy points in average points per game, good for TE10.
Josh Allen had two overall QB1 finishes in Weeks 1 and 3, but those came against Arizona and Jacksonville, two of the league’s worst defenses. In all other weeks, he finished as QB28 twice and QB19 once. The offense struggled overall, with inconsistency in the run game and a lack of upside.
Insert Amari Cooper!
Cooper’s usage was limited but the Bills looked like a renewed team, beating the Titans 34-10. Bills receivers all dramatically shot up the board in fantasy production. The overall group looked cohesive and this was a solid step in the right direction, particularly against a Tennessee defense that had improved during the offseason and had been strong against opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers.
Pulse Check No. 1: Is Week 7's production real, and what can we expect from Bills’ receivers moving forward?
Week 7’s numbers weren’t a dramatic increase for Allen but there was a stark difference in his production and that of the overall receiving corps. Allen saw his highest number of pass attempts all year. He had yet to exceed 30 attempts in a game and his previous high in passing yardage was 263.
In Week 7, he completed 21-of-33 passes for 323 yards and two touchdowns.
With the increased production, targets were slightly more concentrated this week — excellent for our fantasy purposes. Cooper, Coleman, Shakir and Kincaid all saw five or more targets, with minimal receiving usage from the running backs.
According to PFF, the Bills ran 55 offensive snaps. Cooper played 19 snaps, ran 12 routes and received five targets. He led all Bills pass-catchers with 14.6 fantasy points, slightly edging out Coleman, who had 14.5. Cooper was limited in his first game, which was expected, but his target rate per route run was higher than typical — a level we shouldn’t expect moving forward — and showed the Bills were intentional with his usage.
Coleman played 41 snaps, consistent with his previous usage, but saw his highest number of targets this season with seven, catching four for 125 yards. His day could’ve been even bigger, as a close-call touchdown was overturned. Coleman had the best game of his young career, and it’ll be interesting to see his alignment with Cooper and his average depth of target going forward. This was a great sign that Cooper’s presence could open up more opportunities for other receivers and Coleman could be the biggest beneficiary.
Oddly, despite Cooper’s addition, Hollins still played a significant number of snaps at 41 and ran 23 routes but saw only one target. For fantasy purposes, we can consider Hollins a non-factor.
Shakir returned to his usual usage after being out in Week 5 and limited in Week 6. He had a productive day, catching all seven of his targets for 65 yards, continuing to be a reliable intermediate target for Allen.
It should be noted that Curtis Samuel left the game with an injury. However, despite Samuel being second in touches in the receiving corps, he’s by far been the least productive receiver in fantasy points per touch with just 1.45 fantasy points per touch in PPR. For comparison, Coleman was at 3.68 and Shakir was at 2.72 heading into Week 7. Samuel’s return could shift things slightly, but he averaged less than three targets per game and the Bills’ best path forward may not include significant usage of Samuel.
Pulse Check No. 2: Does Kincaid actually have TE1 upside?
Kincaid’s usage was more intriguing. He played 40 snaps, running 25 routes compared to Dawson Knox’s 31 snaps and 15 routes. Kincaid saw six targets while Knox had three. Kincaid continues to be one of the team’s top target leaders and should maintain his current level of production, but Cooper’s addition eliminates any chance of Kincaid becoming a consistent top-five tight end. Knox will continue to siphon just enough targets to keep Kincaid’s upside limited to low-end TE1 territory.
Pulse Check No. 3: With a slight uptick in passing volume, what can we take away from the running backs?
I am slightly concerned about the running back usage in Week 7. It’s tough to say the receiving volume will suffer for the backs based on one game because it could’ve been an anomaly. There were only three targets to the running backs, one to both Ray Davis and Ty Johnson and none to James Cook. Lack of receiving upside would limit the ceiling a bit but both backs scored a rushing touchdown, the bright spot in the increased production for the offense.
Volume could suffer a bit but an increase in red-zone opportunities will help to counteract. Fantasy managers should be a bit concerned regarding Davis and his effect on Cook’s production, however. Cook operated as the lead back with 12 carries for 32 yards but Davis was very efficient with 41 yards on just five carries.
Cooper’s arrival shouldn’t hurt the run game but a potential for increased committee work is a potential concern.
