Fantasy Football Playoff Analysis: Take off with the Jets in Week 15
Welcome to the fantasy playoffs, managers! While many of you are preparing for the first round, injuries have likely taken a toll on your roster and you may be looking for players to fill your starting lineup. I will highlight multiple players who could provide some fantasy value based on their recent volume and usage heading into Week 15.
Before we begin, below are two metrics I will be using throughout the article:
Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): A usage metric that calculates the average fantasy value of a player’s total opportunities based on historical play-by-play data.
Fantasy Points Over Expected (or FPOE = Actual Points - Expected Points): An efficiency metric that is often subject to regression. Players who rely on FPOE to produce are much more volatile on a weekly basis.
For a more detailed breakdown of these metrics, be sure to check out my series primer from Week 1!
Let’s dive in!
Elijah Moore - New York Jets
While Garrett Wilson has rightfully received plenty of attention as the Jets WR1, Elijah Moore's usage has slowly improved in recent weeks as he set season highs in target share (22.3 percent) and Expected Fantasy Points (11.4) in Week 14. Of course, part of the increase in volume was due to Corey Davis leaving last week's matchup early with a head injury. However, we have seen several players miss up to one game this season due to the NFL's recently updated concussion protocols.
It would not surprise if he missed their upcoming matchup, leaving the Jets with Wilson and Moore as their featured receivers.
In addition, while it only translated to 2.7 half-PPR points, we also saw Moore total an Expected Fantasy Value of 10.4 in Week 13 (on seven total opportunities), which ranked WR34 despite a healthy Davis in the lineup. In short, Moore is trending in the right direction over the last two weeks. And against a Detroit Lions defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers since Week 8, Moore is shaping up to be a decent FLEX option for fantasy managers this week.
Nico Collins - Houston Texans
I will preface this by saying that Nico Collins is currently dealing with a foot injury that sidelined him in Week 14. However, at a roster percentage of only 24 percent, there are multiple reasons to pick him up off waivers even if he is unable to play this upcoming Sunday.
Firstly, Collins has a very favorable schedule in the fantasy playoffs. In his final three games, he will be facing three defenses that rank in the bottom 12 in wide receiver fantasy points allowed over the last seven weeks. Two of those three matchups are against the Jaguars and Titans, who respectively rank as the third- and seventh-best matchups against wide receivers.
Second of all, since Week 10, Collins is the WR16 in my usage model at 12.4 Expected Fantasy Points per game, commanding an impressive 25% target share and 34% air yards share in four games. Therefore, Collins profiles as a high-upside FLEX option over the next three weeks, assuming he can fully recover from his injury.
Chuba Hubbard - Carolina Panthers
Should you start D’Onta Foreman or Chuba Hubbard in Week 15?
Why not both?
Over the last three weeks, Foreman and Hubbard have been heavily involved in the Panthers offense, receiving a total of 80 opportunities in two games. As a result, both running backs rank within the top 20 in Expected Fantasy Points per game since Week 12. Keep in mind that since trading away Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers have averaged the second-highest rushing rate in neutral situations at 61%. As a result, there should be plenty of opportunities for both Hubbard and Foreman to be fantasy-relevant in the coming weeks.
Surprisingly, Hubbard is still available in about 60 percent of leagues. And while their Week 15 matchup against the Steelers is not the most favorable, I expect this game to be a low-scoring affair with Kenny Pickett potentially unavailable, allowing the Panthers to lean on their running game to move the chains.
J.K. Dobbins - Baltimore Ravens
Despite Dobbins’ return as the RB9 in half-PPR leagues in Week 14, I would imagine there are still a few fantasy managers who are slightly hesitant to rely on him after one productive game. In fact, in Week 4, Dobbins teased us with an RB10 performance only to follow that up with 4.4 fantasy points against the Bengals. Despite that, I do believe he could be a startable FLEX option in Week 15 as the Ravens are set to face the Cleveland Browns in a pivotal divisional matchup.
In his first game back, the Ravens relied on Dobbins heavily as he received a 25.4% opportunity share, ranking as the RB26 with 8.5 Expected Fantasy Points. While the usage offers some volatility, the Browns rank as the 10th-best matchup for running backs, giving up the highest yards per carry since Week 8. Naturally, there is some risk in relying on a player who has struggled through injuries most of the season. However, if you are in desperate need of a starting running back, Dobbins should receive around 15 touches this week in a very favorable matchup.
Greg Dulcich - Denver Broncos
Greg Dulcich has quietly put together a very impressive season, truly showcasing his ability to be an impactful receiver at tight end. In eight games, he ranks as the TE8 in Route Participation (81.3 percent), TE4 in Routes Run per game (30), and TE14 in Expected Fantasy Points (7.3). And over the last two weeks, his usage has improved even further. In that timespan, Dulcich is averaging:
25% Target Share (TE3)
39.8% Air Yards Share (TE1)
9.9 Expected Fantasy Points (TE6)
In other words, his usage in recent weeks places him among some of the most productive tight ends in the league. In addition, his matchup against the Cardinals provides Dulcich with a very high baseline, as Arizona is allowing the most receiving yards (73) and Fantasy Points per game (15.1) to tight ends this season.
While there is some uncertainty regarding the quarterback position due to Russell Wilson’s concussion, keep in mind that Dulcich set a season-high in Expected Fantasy Points (11.1) back in Week 7 with Brett Rypien under center. As a result, he should remain a startable streaming option in Week 14 regardless of who is throwing him the ball.
Mike White - New York Jets
When discussing Elijah Moore’s favorable matchup, the same applies to Mike White as the Detroit Lions have allowed the most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position since Week 8. In addition, they are giving up 335.4 passing yards per game while also averaging the 13th-lowest pressure rate over the last seven weeks.
From a usage standpoint, White continues to stand out as the Jets have transitioned to a more pass-heavy offense, averaging the 11th-highest neutral situation passing rate (57.1%) since Week 12. So while he provides very little production as a rusher, the increased passing volume has allowed White to average 19.4 Expected Fantasy Points as a starter. Combined with a very favorable set of matchups over the next two weeks (Detroit and Jacksonville), he should be confidently started as a high-upside QB2 for your fantasy teams.
EDITOR'S NOTE: Despite reports from the Jets' coaching staff and White himself stating he would play, he has been ruled out for Week 15.
