Fantasy Football Panic Meter, Week 15: Chargers' sinking ship could end playoff runs
There's no panic in fantasy football quite like playoff panic.
Lineup decisions can be stressful at any time of year, but the deep, gnawing dread that hits in mid-December is simply different. You are never more vulnerable to recency bias (and other biases). You are never more willing to abandon great players heading into difficult matchups — and, honestly, sometimes you actually should pivot away from the guys who carried you to the postseason.
This is why the panic hits so hard. It's often justified. As in the case of a Chargers receiver who's been a huge success story to this point ...
Keenan Allen with no Herbert
— Keith Manley (@KeithManley87) December 12, 2023
Keenan Allen
Panic level: Extreme. Sadness level is also quite high. 🫣 🫠 😞
With all due respect to legendary North Dakota State Bison quarterback Easton Stick, this situation is pretty bad. Allen has produced the best season of his 11-year career, but it may all come crashing down with Justin Herbert now on IR and Keenan himself dealing with a heel injury that will sideline him in Week 15.
Even when healthy, we should acknowledge that a Herbert-less Allen can no longer be viewed as a high-floor fantasy option if you're able to advance without him this week. With Herbert, he'd seen nine or more targets in a dozen different weeks and his worst single-game fantasy output was four catches for 55 yards.
Without Herbert ... well, we'll see beyond this week. It could get ugly.
Last week, Stick completed only 13 of 24 throws, fumbling twice and delivering a third of his passing yards on a deep heave to Quentin Johnston. All bets are off where the Chargers offense is concerned. It would be ideal if Stick managed to go on a DeVito-style heater, but that's a ridiculous thing to expect. In theory, Allen should remain the most inviting target in LA's offense, a security blanket receiver for an under-experienced quarterback. But it's also possible the Chargers will remain conservative with him at this stage in a lost season.
This worry is definitely not going away any time soon, and it's related to our next concern ...
I don’t know if it’s allowed to say on Yahoo, but I’m positive I’m going up in flames with Austin Ekeler in my flex.
— Travis Souders (@travissouders) December 12, 2023
Austin Ekeler
Panic level: Not insignificant. It's complicated. 😶 ⚡️
First of all, Yahoo is fully committed to freedom of panic, even if the subject is a coworker such as Ekeler. We do understand and appreciate your concern.
Ekeler is coming off a get-right game against Denver, the friendliest matchup possible. He reached 100 scrimmage yards and made a house call for the first time in a month, which was great to see (and also a huge relief). But he's also gone three straight games without a run of 10-plus yards and he wasn't credited with any missed tackles against the Broncos. It's likely Ekeler is still dealing with the lingering effects of his September ankle injury, but we aren't going to get those details until the season is behind us. Any concern about him losing volume can be brushed aside, however, after he played 49 snaps on Sunday and handled his usual workload.
Ekeler is of course dealing with the same Stick-related headwinds that every other member of the Chargers is currently facing. When the quarterback position gets a downgrade, it's bad for everyone tied to an offense.
Bottom line: unless you're playing in the tiniest of leagues and your roster is unreasonably loaded at running back, you are gonna play Ekeler in the money weeks. He gets a favorable matchup with Vegas on Thursday night, plus he has another date with Denver in Championship Week, when you need him most. He's a friend to the fantasy community, so the man knows what's at stake for you personally, Travis.
Stefon Diggs
Panic level: Pffft. Almost undetectable. 😎
Look, it isn't always going to be perfect. Literally every receiver in the game — including the guy having an all-time season — is going to have the occasional quiet week. Diggs has been held to fewer than 35 receiving yards in three of his last four games, which is ... well, that's alarmingly quiet.
The good news is that Diggs has drawn 11 targets in each of the past two weeks, so he hasn't exactly been ignored in Joe Brady's offense. (Please don't get hung up on the Dorsey/Brady splits; our social team is trying to terrify you at all times.) Diggs has an ostensibly challenging matchup ahead against Dallas, but five different receivers have topped 70 yards against the Cowboys over their previous four games, with a monster performance by DK Metcalf included. Dallas is opportunistic and vicious, sure, but there are still yards to be gained against them.
Let's not demote Diggs to the Gabe Davis tier just because you were dissatisfied with last week's production. He's still the Bills receiver most likely to reach the end zone in any given week. Here's a reminder of what Diggs has done for us in better times (literally two games ago):
Allen to Diggs for 6 🎯
Bills take a 10 point lead in Philly 👀
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/grxdlWTFJ8— Yahoo Sports NFL (@YahooSportsNFL) November 26, 2023
Play this man with confidence — and if it has to be fake confidence, so be it. But play him.
Garrett Wilson
— Andy Bohnhoff (@abohnhoff) December 12, 2023
Garrett Wilson
Panic level: Wait, you are just getting around to Wilson panic? You're three months late. It's time to feel good again. 🤨
Sincere congratulations for making it to the playoffs despite having drafted a member of the Jets in the first or second round. You deserve special recognition for getting this far. Well played, Andy.
Wilson is coming off a week in which he caught nine balls for 108 yards and his quarterback delivered the best game he's played since the Boca Raton Bowl in 2020. It is absolutely wild that anyone is complaining now, at this moment. In six of G. Wilson's last eight games, he's finished with 80 receiving yards or a touchdown. He has the Dolphins on the schedule this week, followed by a matchup with a user-friendly Commanders defense.
If your biggest fantasy problem right now is Garrett Wilson, then you probably have a legit title contender on your hands.
D Swift?
— Rob Monacelli (@zrobert) December 12, 2023
D'Andre Swift
Panic level: Elevated. But the worst weeks are behind us (we think). 🫤 🦅
Philadelphia has been pummeled in each of their last two games, so game flow didn't necessarily favor the running backs. It's not as if the Eagles offense has been a raging party recently and Swift has been excluded.
Still, Swift's issues date back further than two weeks. He's averaging just 3.86 YPC over his last 10 games, since the back-to-back 100-yard performances in September. He also hasn't seen a significant target share since Week 6, when he caught eight passes against the Jets.
It feels like a decade ago that Swift was giving us league-winner vibes during that yards-before-contact eruption against Minnesota, but that game did, in fact, occur this season. He's a good back, if perhaps not the do-everything star you'd imagined. Swift is also closing his fantasy season with an incredible three-game stretch against friendly run defenses: Seattle, then at home against the Giants and Cardinals. Those teams are allowing the fifth, sixth and second-most fantasy points to opposing backs respectively, so this is no time to send Swift to your bench.
It's fair to be annoyed that Swift's role at the goal line is to help shove his quarterback into the end zone, but, hey, we can't have everything. He should be a useful source of (scoreless) yards in the closing weeks.