Fantasy Football Panic Meter: Reviewing drops of regret in a brutal bye week
With six teams on bye and most of the league's best players dealing with injuries of varying degrees of severity, our usual midweek fantasy panic had actual consequences when waivers ran overnight on Wednesday. This week, the drops were notable — jarringly so. Early-round picks were kicked to the curb in great numbers. Some were rage-dropped, others only reluctantly cut. Today's Panic Meter is focused on the players you just launched from your rosters in favor of Zach Evans, Rashee Rice and various other delights. My role here is to tell you exactly how much regret or relief you should be feeling about your drops. Let's get to it...
Johan Dotson was a hold for me all year and now I’m looking at my team and he’s a clear drop. 14 team league too so it hurts!
— Hawk (@mellowhawk) October 17, 2023
Jahan Dotson
Post-drop regret level: None. Whatever you might be feeling is just the dull ache of last week's defeat. 😑
I am willing to concede on Dotson. He's unplayable right now, coming off a week in which he saw only one target — which he dropped — and having failed to top 40 receiving yards in any game all season. This was simply a whiff.
All the numbers we'd hoped would belong to Dotson are instead being compiled by Curtis Samuel, and an annoying number of targets have found Dyami Brown (before finding the turf, because catching has been a struggle for Brown). Dotson is currently fourth on his own team in receiving yards, barely ahead of Antonio Gibson. He's down bad.
I'm still a believer in Dotson's talent, just for the record, because he's still the guy who made plays like this as a rookie:
WHAT A PLAY BY ONE
📺 #WASvsNYG FOX pic.twitter.com/7d7mP072CC— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) December 4, 2022
But we really needed Washington to funnel opportunities to no more than 2-3 receivers this season and that is clearly not the plan for this team. We reserve the right to recommend Dotson as a pickup at some later date, after he finally returns to the end zone, but dropping him now is completely understandable.
Najee Harris need talked out of it or to just do it...
— Katlin Brown (@Katttbrown123) October 17, 2023
Najee Harris
Regret level: Modest. Honestly, it's mostly sweet relief. 😏 🍻
Look, the only reason this is even a question is that Harris was your second or third-round pick. We are well past the point in the season at which it's appropriate to think about ADP or preseason expectations. Harris is currently the RB39 on the year and he hasn't missed a game. It's not happening. The next game in which he plays 60% of the snaps will be his first of 2023.
Here's a partial list of running backs who've outscored Harris in fantasy this season: Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, Jaleel McLaughlin, Samaje Perine, Tyler Allgeier, Chuba Hubbard, Miles Sanders, Tyjae Spears, Justice Hill, Gus Edwards, Latavius Murray, Antonio Gibson, Jerick McKinnon — and, notably, Jaylen Warren. How many of those dudes are currently unattached in your league?
If you can't trade a guy and you won't start him, then he's a plausible drop. Harris is the sort of player who will probably get scooped up by someone later in the week, but the manager who adds him will be cutting his least useful roster piece in order to make the add. No one is giving you a desirable asset for Harris, in all likelihood.
At some point, Harris is probably going to find his way to the end zone, but it hasn't happened yet through five games and 68 touches. He's a committee back attached to a joyless offense and his receiving role is minimal. If you're ready to move on in a 10 or 12-team league, it's understandable.
Justin Fields. Iffy passer before, now has a bum throwing hand? Might not want him clogging my bench.
— Michael Patrick (@FantasyNewz) October 17, 2023
Justin Fields
Regret level: Yeah, OK, we might have a few night terrors associated with this one. 🫣
Fields was having a poor day against a league-average defense before suffering the thumb injury on Sunday, a huge backward step after he'd thrown eight TD passes in the previous two weeks. These are his weekly fantasy finishes through six games:
QB16
QB20
QB24
QB3
QB1
QB30
So that's a pair of top-3 finishes and four weeks in which he may have been the reason you lost — and now he's hurt. Fields is almost certainly not playing this week and he could be compromised in future weeks, still dealing with a faulty thumb. It's not out of the question that a 2-4 manager in a one-quarterback league would cut such a player. You can't stash everyone. The top priority for every 2-4 team right now is to not get to 2-5.
But, well ... those ceiling games from Fields are hard to ignore. As of this writing, his range of outcomes includes surgery and IR, but it also includes a supernova second-half that looks a bit like last season. Unfortunately, not everyone has the luxury of making second-half plans.
Someone should be able to find a bench spot for Fields in any league, but that's not the right move for everyone.
Miles sanders for a WR.. I’m running back heavy though with 5 other options
— Derek (@derekm2530) October 17, 2023
Miles Sanders
Regret level: Sorry, who? The rest of us had already moved on. 🥸
I mean, I think Sanders is a fine running back when he's at full strength. But he hasn't been healthy since early August. He didn't play last Sunday and he was out-snapped, out-touched and out-gained by Chuba Hubbard the prior week. It's OK to let go. You actually might be a week late. Nobody is trying to trade for Sanders right now, during Carolina's bye.
Boy am I close to dropping Rachad White
— David Grager (@thatguy5000) October 17, 2023
Rachaad White
Regret level: Meh. You can commiserate with the Najee droppers and, together, reflect on your draft process. 🥱
White might be the dead-zoniest running back who ever dead-zone'd. He can offer volume and receiving aptitude, both of which are obviously useful. But he's not really a yards-after-contact guy, nor is he a yards-before-contact guy. He's also not a breakaway guy — his longest run this season went for 13 yards. White is averaging just 3.3 YPC and 3.8 yards per touch. He lost a few carries to Ke'Shawn Vaughn last week, although White was briefly dinged (and his understudy did nothing with the opportunities). He'd be a tough drop in full-PPR because he's on pace for 50-plus catches, but he's also not the sort of player who demands to be rostered in smaller leagues. The matchups immediately ahead aren't friendly, either (Atlanta and Buffalo).
There's definitely a certain variety of fantasy manager who takes great comfort in predictable workload, even without high-end production. So somebody is probably gonna grab White from the discard pile, but, as with Harris, this doesn't mean you could have executed a helpful trade.
CJ Stroud...dont want to, but with bye and just lost fields and kyren
— TheKid (@kbraptor) October 17, 2023
C.J. Stroud
Regret level: Immediate and extreme. Actual anguish. 😫 😵 💀
Gah. Stroud's only fault is that he's on a bye in a messy week. He did not deserve this drop. Stroud has been a revelation, a first-year quarterback on pace for 4,700 yards, 26 TD passes and three interceptions. That's just ... well, it doesn't happen. He's the overall QB12 entering the week. Every game brings a new wow throw from Stroud:
CJ Stroud ripping an Over throw off play action to Nico Collins.
Check out Stroud from the endzone view. Puts his eyes on the RB just for a second and it keeps the defender from drifting underneath Collins' route. pic.twitter.com/DcPcc40zoe— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 16, 2023
He was cut in tens of thousands of Yahoo leagues on Wednesday, post-waivers, and each of those drops is gonna sting a little. No doubt many of you needed the roster spot and he was simply backing up Mahomes or Hurts or Allen, but ... gah. He's been so good. There's a non-trivial chance that another manager with Stroud at QB beats your team later in the season. This drop is pain.