Fantasy Football Numbers Do Lie: Don't be fooled in Week 5
A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy categories doesn't always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes ... The Numbers Do Lie.
Dameon Pierce’s 45.3 rushing yards per game are a lie
Pierce’s strong preseason usage didn’t carry over into the regular season as expected, but his opportunity share has increased each week. He saw 24 carries last week and 74% of Houston’s RB opportunities, when he also lost a touchdown catch to an ineligible man downfield penalty. Pierce is top-10 in red-zone carries yet has just one TD playing for a Texans offense scoring in the top half of the league. He's 15th in expected fantasy points among RBs but ranks outside the top 30.
Houston’s decimated offensive line (that’s been missing multiple players) is finally getting healthier, with Laremy Tunsil, Tytus Howard and Juice Scruggs all expected back in Week 5. C.J. Stroud has been incredible (third-best YPA), which is big news for a (somewhat) game-script-dependent back like Pierce. The Texans also have one of the lowest neutral pass rates in the league, so more volume should be coming.
Pierce is awesome and plays in a good system, so he’ll start running for more yards (and touchdowns) with increased usage moving forward.
With the caveat that he gets a tough matchup this week (Atlanta is bottom-three in RB fantasy points allowed), try to trade for Pierce in fantasy leagues.
Khalil Herbert’s 49 rushing YPG and zero rushing TDs are a lie
Herbert took over Chicago’s backfield last week with a season-high 79% snap share that increased to 86% in the second half. Denver’s porous defense (and the score) helped with his big game, but Herbert also looked like the player who led the NFL in rush yards over expectation last season. He’s taken 67% of the snaps and 65% of the RB carries when the game was within one score over the last three weeks.
Herbert has the fourth-most carries without a rushing touchdown, leads the league in missed tackles forced rate and owns a healthy 19% target per route run rate, so there’s a lot to like moving forward.
Meanwhile, rookie Roschon Johnson saw a season-low 22% snap share last week and has some downright ugly advanced stats this season.
Bijan Robinson’s 15.2 fantasy points per game are a lie
Robinson is the RB10 (0.5 PPR) in points per game over the first four weeks. It’s hard to complain about his production given the volatility throughout the league, but Robinson hasn’t quite lived up to expectations after being drafted in the first round.
That’s about to change. Robinson’s rush share has steadily increased each week, while Tyler Allgeier’s snap share has decreased.
Robinson is third in the NFL in yards per touch and leads all running backs in receptions. He also has the second-most carries without a rushing score. Atlanta’s last two matchups came on the road against a Lions run defense ceding an NFL-low 45.3 rushing YPG to running backs and a Jacksonville D allowing the fifth-lowest EPA/rush. This week Robinson is at home versus a Texans defense that’s among the most favorable to fantasy running backs. Desmond Ridder’s struggles don’t help, but the Falcons have by far the lowest pass rate over expectation (-10.1%) in the NFL. And Robinson also happens to be HIM.
Robinson will likely continue to lose goal-line touchdowns to Allgeier at times, but Atlanta’s backfield is now ruled by the rookie, who should be considered a top-five fantasy player.
Josh Jacobs’ one touchdown is a lie
Jacobs finally scored last week, and it came thanks to Davante Adams being robbed (and Josh McDaniels not challenging). It made up for Jacobs being tackled at the one-foot line earlier in the game, which resulted in an Aidan O’Connell rush TD. Jacobs is due for more touchdown luck in a bizarre season in which he’s somehow recorded more receiving yards than rushing yards.
Jacobs ran for 12 touchdowns last year and remains Las Vegas’ true workhorse. He’s been allergic to the end zone early on in 2023 despite ranking top-five in carries inside the 5-yard line. Jacobs is sixth in expected fantasy points per game among running backs but ranks outside the top 20 RBs in actual FPG. He’s a major regression candidate.
Jaylen Waddle’s 8.9 fantasy points per game are a lie
Waddle was drafted in the second round of fantasy leagues but hasn’t been a top-45 WR in fantasy points per game to open 2023. He hasn’t seen the target share as expected, but give Waddle a pass for last week while returning from a concussion, when he also had a TD catch nullified by a penalty. Miami’s running backs have somehow stolen accounted for a whopping 13 touchdowns over four games — a pace simply not sustainable.
Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa is getting an NFL-high 9.6 YPA and has attempted a healthy 10 end-zone targets. The Dolphins are blowing away the rest of the league in yards per play, getting 8 with the second-best at 6.3. Miami’s offense will gain a ton of yards and score a bunch of points if health cooperates. Waddle got 3.14 (!) yards per route run and scored all his touchdowns when Tagovailoa was on the field last season, and that huge fantasy upside remains. He’s a clear buy-low candidate.
