Fantasy Football Mock Draft: What a 'perfect' September draft would look like today
We're into the second week of October, a healthy third of the way through this fantasy football dance. And sure, regrets, I have a few.
It's the time of year when I like to look back and imagine the draft I could have had, given the ADP available at the time and what was knowable at the time. Obviously any fantasy manager who sleuthed ahead of time that players like Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams and De'Von Achane were going to pop is likely crushing their leagues right now; while we're at it, let's get the winning lottery numbers, too.
But what was gettable and plausible for us back around Sept. 1? That's what I'll explore today.
For the sake of argument, assume I had the No. 8 pick in a 12-team snake draft, and I'm aiming to fill these starting positions: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex. I'll also tack on a couple of bench players.
Pick 8: Bijan Robinson, RB Atlanta Falcons
Elite running backs are often plug-and-play in fantasy football, and although the Falcons offense is a pain in the neck at times, Robinson's weekly floor remains high. Atlanta has a comically easy schedule going forward, so I would gladly take Robinson early — perhaps in the top five — if I were redrafting right now. This sets me up for an Anchor RB build and avoids the unlucky injury picks of Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley and Austin Ekeler. It's never a bad idea to trend young at this position.
Pick 17: Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
If I wanted to cheat a little, I could slide A.J. Brown to this spot, though his global ADP landed him around the turn. Adams no longer has the ideal setup that he enjoyed in Green Bay, but he's proven to have unbreakable fantasy value even with the Raiders, no matter the quarterback play. The key to this pick in the hindsight draft is to avoid Garrett Wilson; I still believe every glowing thing I wrote about him in the summer, but losing Aaron Rodgers on the opening drive of the season took the air out of the balloon.
Pick 32: Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
This pick is right around Allen's global ADP of the late summer, so I'd need a favorable runout. But hey, this is a perfect hindsight draft; I'll take an occasional green light. One personal regret of the early season is that I didn't give veteran receivers on the back nine of their careers enough credit in the early rounds; it led to some Wilson over Adams picks (that hurts just to type) and it also meant I was underweight on Allen.
The new Chargers offense has fit Allen well, and his target floor is now enormous with Mike Williams out for the season. We also love exposure to a Justin Herbert offense.
Pick 41: DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears
Although the Bears were a punchline for the opening month of the season, they did crush Washington in Week 5 — and Moore has been a star for four weeks running, rolling up 25-506-5 over that span. That makes him the WR1 in the last four games, comfortably ahead of WR2 Ja'Marr Chase and WR3 Stefon Diggs in that period. We're still trying to figure out what Justin Fields is and what he is not, but at least he's eager to feature Moore and capable of driving him to stardom. The Bears offer the carnival setup, a losing team that will likely need a lot of weekly pass volume.
Pick 56: Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
This pick is a mixture of banked value and what's to come; the Jets finally took the wraps off Hall in Week 5 and he shredded the Broncos. New York's winning path needs to center around a loaded defense and a conservative offense, and Hall offers all the tools at running back, a high-success rate player who will also hit home runs.
Can the Jets have nice things, for once? I'm excited about where Hall is going. The key to this selection was understanding that the Dalvin Cook signing wasn't really a threat to Hall.
Pick 65: George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
If I wanted to draft off omniscient knowledge, I'd merely wait around for Sam LaPorta and count my winnings several rounds later. But it's unlikely I would have proactively chased a rookie tight end in the summer. Kittle's fantasy haul this season is mostly slanted to what he did in Week 5, but he did have one other splash game, and the Niners offense is always a fun spot to place your chips.
Another possible pick for this slot is David Montgomery, a bankable volume back tied to one of the best offenses (and offensive lines) in football.
Pick 80: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
Most years I'm looking to find a possible top-five quarterback in the second or third tier, and Tagovailoa fit that suit this summer, tied to elite receivers and a genius play designer in Mike McDaniel. The caveat for Tagovailoa is always "if healthy," but banking on a healthy quarterback season is much more realistic than at any other field position.
Pick 89: Adam Thielen, WR, Carolina Panthers
Another veteran receiver play, and a grab at plausible volume. Bryce Young remains a work in progress (and it's scary to think about how much Carolina paid to draft him), but his first read is always Thielen.
Pick 104; Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
Collins was always a reasonable pick for a third-year breakout (and the absorption of vacated targets), but he takes a notable step up in class with C.J. Stroud being more pro-ready than anyone expected.
Pick 113: Raheem Mostert or De'Von Achane, RBs, Miami Dolphins
When Jeff Wilson Jr. got hurt in the second week of August, it set up interesting speculation picks in the Miami backfield. Anytime you can reduce a backfield from three competitors to two, it's a fantasy boost. The Dolphins have assembled the track team of the NFL, the speed merchants who weekly break the NFL Next Gen Stats. Mostert isn't a great bet for a full season and of course Achane is hurt right now, but we're trying to make some "Win September" picks, too.
A few other things on my mind: If I had any slot available, I'd want the pick that would guarantee me Christian McCaffrey the most times . . . As mentioned earlier, the Aaron Rodgers injury crushed Garrett Wilson, one of my most rostered players . . . It hasn't been a great start to the tight end season, though that position made a comeback in Week 5 . . . The running back board is a mess, as per usual. I did a rough tracking of the top 25 picks by ADP, and about seven of them look like hits. It's a wicked and cruel game we play. Just try to keep making good decisions.