Fantasy Football: Michael Wilson leads sleeper picks for Week 5
Sleeper is a nebulous term in fantasy football. One size never fits all with any column.
My goal with this piece is to help you consider fantasy players that might be overlooked or under-appreciated, be it as temporary fill-ins, possible depth grabs or maybe the impetus for a prop play or DFS slot. As always, your mileage may vary, and you know your league — and particular needs — better than an outsider ever could.
The sleeper page had some hits last week, as Jake Ferguson charted as the TE6 and the Broncos were a Top 5 defense. Let's see how this sheet does.
Michael Wilson vs. Cincinnati (40% rostered, 13% started)
One of the silliest things we say as a collective fantasy industry (and I include myself in this flagging) is the phrase: "Don't chase the points." I understand what the thought means in spirit; past returns are never a guarantee of future results, and sometimes we can be left holding the bag — and feeling emotionally empty — when we believe in an outlier performance from an ordinary player, only to watch him turn into a pumpkin the following week when we needed him.
But there are so few universals in this game. The answer so often comes down to "it depends" and "consider the context" as we meander through roster preparation. And sometimes "chasing the points" turns into a positive thing, because you're reacting to new information or reconsidering a player who is more talented (or more central to his team's plans) than you originally thought. If you chased the points with Puka Nacua or Kyren Williams, you've had a fun ride so far.
So let's get to Wilson.
I would suggest the Houston Texans are the most surprising offense in the NFL through a month — C.J. Stroud has been amazing despite ordinary pieces around him — but the Cardinals aren't far behind. Arizona has been competitive in every game, shocking the Cowboys, covering three times out of four and posting an offensive DVOA that ranks sixth in the league.
The buoyancy of the offense is good news if you roster James Conner or Marquise Brown, but I've raised my levels of trust. I'm ready to go deeper in this offense, in part because journeyman quarterback Joshua Dobbs is playing much better than expected.
Wilson's biggest game out of four came last week when he secured all seven of his targets, good for 76 yards and two touchdowns. The rest of his résumé has been about low-volume efficiency — he's caught 14-of-16 targets for 237 yards. The usage was never heavy until last week.
This week the Cardinals play the Bengals, a Cincinnati team featuring a below-average pass defense. It's obviously unrealistic to expect Wilson to repeat last week's juicy numbers — which landed him as the WR7 in Yahoo half-point PPR scoring — but I suspect his play has been too productive to ignore. This feels like a role expanding, and I could see Wilson earning full Circle of Trust privileges before the month is out. We're in bye week season now, and injuries are always a fantasy pox. I'm not afraid to use Wilson proactively in Week 5.
And if you're stuck at the tight end spot, Zach Ertz is worth a punch as a boring volume pick. He's had eight targets or more in three games, and although he doesn't have a touchdown, 20 catches through four weeks will give you solid scoring if your league has a PPR component.
Tyler Boyd at Arizona (42% rostered)
In past years, a Boyd recommendation was an easy thing to offer. He often accrued fantasy value merely as Cincinnati's No. 3 receiver, and that projection could spike if the Bengals were missing one of their two star receivers.
Things are more complicated now. Quarterback Joe Burrow has been playing poorly, and likely playing hurt, for a month. And although WR Tee Higgins is dealing with a rib injury, it's possible he might play in Week 5 anyway. You have obvious caveats to consider before you punch in a Boyd play.
All that said, Boyd's been busy over the last three weeks (24 targets), even if the yardage returns have been underwhelming. Solving expected opportunity is a big part of figuring out the fantasy puzzle, and the Cardinals offer the third-worst pass defense per DVOA metrics. Boyd is the type of fill-in tailor-made for this part of the schedule.
Tyler Conklin at Denver (4% rostered, 2% started)
Sometimes the aim is to dig super deep for a Hail Mary play, and that's where Conklin comes in. Zach Wilson is a difficult watch, but his play was improved in the loss to Kansas City. Maybe there's a tiny bit of hope here. And Conklin actually seems to have some rapport with Wilson, posting a 12-134-0 line over 17 targets in the last three games.
Nope, this isn't an explosive ceiling. But Conklin has posted 50 yards receiving in two of three games, and the Broncos have been leaky in their tight end coverage all year. Given how messy the tight end position has become, 50 yards (and maybe a little touchdown equity) is enough to make us happy.
Curtis Samuel vs. Chicago (14% rostered)
The Commanders haven't been an easy watch all season, as Sam Howell tries to establish himself as a bonafide NFL starter. Washington was life-and-death to beat a couple of lesser teams, then was blown out by Buffalo. Last week's overtime loss to Philadelphia might be the strongest piece of Washington's 2023 résumé.
Meanwhile, my Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson shares have not returned what I hoped for all summer.
So why dig even deeper into this team's wideout chart? Because OC Eric Bieniemy seems interested in creatively scheming touches for Samuel, the more gadgety player in this passing game. Samuel had eight targets last week (he caught seven of them) and he also turned a goal-line rushing attempt into a short touchdown. When this type of game-planning succeeds, it often repeats. And the matchup couldn't be better, with Chicago's leaky offense waiting Thursday night.
If the bye week and injury blues have you digging deep, Samuel looks like a plausible alternative.
