Fantasy Football: Is 2023 the Year of the Old Player?
Sometimes it's the year of the cat, or the horse, or the personal computer. Sometimes it's the year punk broke.
Is 2023 the year of the old fantasy player? Stay with me, let's look at some data and some numbers.
The wonderful Raheem Mostert is the runaway Yahoo Fantasy Football MVP so far this year, the player who shows up the most on Yahoo's top 500 public teams. Mostert charts on 79.6% of those teams, an absurdly high number. But he's not the only older player who makes an appearance.
Tyreek Hill ranks third on that list (behind teammates Mostert and De'Von Achane; it's absurd the Dolphins have the top three on this chart). Hill's in his age-29 season. Adam Thielen, 33, is fourth. Keenan Allen, in his age-31 run, slots seventh.
If this feels unusual for the veterans, you're right. I looked at some data from the last five seasons, 2019 to present, curious about how often "older" players showed up on the final top 50 list for Value-Based Drafting ranks (where the goal is to measure a player's value over a baseline player at his position; thank you, Joe Bryant). I ignored quarterbacks for the age query since they're different animals who age at a very different pace.
How often does a running back, wide receiver, or tight end chart in his later years? I used the age-29 season as my (admittedly arbitrary) cutoff.
How have 29-and-over veterans fared in recent fantasy seasons?
Last year we saw seven players aged 29 and up who finished top 50 in VBD. That's actually a pretty good score. Here's that list (you'll notice no running backs are on it):
Travis Kelce, age 33, eighth
Davante Adams, age 30, ninth
Stefon Diggs, age 29, 14th
George Kittle, age 29, 23rd
Taysom Hill, age 32, 25th
Tyler Lockett, age 30, 35th
Mike Evans, age 29, 39th
Two years back, the list was only six deep. You'll see some repeat names, and there's just one running back on it, one of the surprises of the year:
Davante Adams, age 29, 12th
Travis Kelce, age 32, 15th
Tyler Lockett, age 29, 27th
Cordarrelle Patterson, age 30, 36th
Keenan Allen, age 29, 43rd
Rob Gronkowski, age 32, 48th
The unique 2020 season, with the pandemic hovering over everything, only gave us three golden oldies (no running backs):
Travis Kelce, age 31, fifth
Adam Thielen, age 30, 26th
Marvin Jones, age 30, 43rd
Back in 2019, the list was six deep:
Travis Kelce, age 30, eighth
Mark Ingram, age 30, 11th
Zach Ertz, age 29, 22nd
Jared Cook, age 32, 25th
Julio Jones, age 30, 27th
Julian Edelman, age 33, 40th
This year, we have 10 players crashing the top 50 in ADP among the wideouts, running backs and tight ends (including six in the top 20). Here they are:
Raheem Mostert, age 31, second
Tyreek Hill, age 29, third
Stefon Diggs, age 30, eighth
Keenan Allen, age 31, 12th
Derrick Henry, age 29, 13th
Adam Thielen, age 33, 18th
Travis Kelce, age 34, 28th
Davante Adams, age 31, 32nd
George Kittle, age 30, 47th
Mike Evans, age 30, 49th
So what the heck does all of this mean? Can we get anything out of this, past the simple "Man, Travis Kelce, Keenan Allen and Adam Thielen sure take good care of themselves?"
What does early-season veteran success tell us moving forward?
The biggest thing that stands out to me is the lack of running backs on this list. Of the 32 players who came up as hits on this query, only four were running backs. And man, what a curious list it is: Derrick Henry isn't a surprise (probably headed to the Hall of Fame), but he's joined by a Mark Ingram season out of nowhere, a Cordarrelle Patterson season really out of nowhere and this Raheem Mostert start that's come from Jupiter.
If your goal is to focus on young running backs, maybe even first-contract running backs, I'm not going to say you're wrong.
The wideouts are well-represented here, grabbing 17 of the 32 spots. That's always been seen as a position that generally ages well, though when wideouts get into the 30s we generally treat them carefully. I avoided Mike Evans this summer. I'm still not sure how that will feel when the year is out. He's been good so far, but he hasn't been absurdly great.
The tight ends chart 11 times, in part because of the lack of depth here and the undeniable star power of players like Kelce, Gronkowski and Kittle. The top 10 at tight end so far is a mix of career arcs; Sam LaPorta, Cole Kmet and Kyle Pitts are front-nine players, T.J. Hockenson and Dalton Schulz are middle-career guys, Kelce and Kittle are back-niners. You could put Mark Andrews and Dallas Goedert in the second or third group, that's your call.
To be fair, it's entirely possible the older players off to good starts will have a high rate of attrition in the weeks to come, making the year-end haul similar to prior seasons. Injuries are the persistent nuisance in our game, and older players generally carry more injury risk. If you want to lock in some profits and trade into a younger roster, I see the logic to that.
Of course this all circles back to one of the biggest questions of the current season: What the heck do we do with Mostert? He's shown flashes of explosiveness during his career, but he's also had a slew of injuries. He's been cut at least seven times, bouncing around the league. We can't even say he's the most talented back in Miami; Achane was a highlight reel before he got hurt. And Jeff Wilson Jr. is coming back soon and is sure to have some role in this offense.
Colleague Matt Harmon likes to say Mostert is a player who's "here for a good time, not for a long time." He means it in good fun and spirit; like most of us, he's having a blast watching Mostert and Miami's offense pile up the points.
I've viewed Mostert as a forced hold as we navigate through October. I don't expect him to hold up all year, but I also suspect most trade markets will treat him very carefully. We're talking about a back who's 5-foot-10, 185 pounds, never getting more than 181 carries in a year (that was last season). I wouldn't want to deal Mostert just to deal him, but I also don't feel confident leaguemates will be eager to buy him at a lofty price.
Every league is different, of course. If you have a loaded backfield room — I realize that's not common in fantasy these days — I would encourage you to make that entire room available to leaguemates, at least in discussion. See what names they're willing to land on, who they're willing to overpay for. If it's a name you're comfortable moving, great. If it's someone you want to keep, you back away. Discussions are good. See what your market will bear.
And heavy bye weeks (such as this one) are an undeniable aid for getting deals done.
I often say it's no fun to play fantasy football with the mindset of an actuary. I still think skill players who are on the front sides of their careers are generally safer picks, provided they've already matured into bankable players. That doesn't mean I'm not having a blast on the Mostert rocket ship — I am.
I just won't be surprised if — and when — the music stops.
Data from Pro Football Reference was used in this article. All player ages are "seasonal ages," which reflects their age as of December 31.
