Fantasy Football Fades: Tempering expectations for Kyler Murray in Week 9
Another week, another round of crucially important start/sit decisions. To help you make them, here's a look at six players with bust potential in Week 9.
Something to keep in mind as you're reading: a "fade" or "bust" designation doesn't automatically mean you should sit a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or available options on your waiver wire.
QB Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray's expectations were sky-high heading into the 2024 season, another year removed from a torn ACL that ended his 2022 campaign and armed with a new weapon: rookie Marvin Harrison Jr.
Unfortunately, despite Murray's standing as the QB8 on the season, it's been a bumpier ride than expected. He's fallen outside of the top-10 weekly QBs in five of eight weeks, including three finishes as QB18 or worse. Though he's had plenty of rushing upside this season with five games off 45+ rushing yards (2 TDs), Murray has shown more volatility as a passer; he's had fewer than 215 passing yards in six of eight games and just two multi-passing-TD showings.
This week, the Cardinals will face the Chicago Bears — a top-five coverage unit with a 76.3 PFF grade through eight weeks of the season. They are allowing the 12th-fewest passing yards per attempt (6.81), the eighth-fewest yards after the catch per completion (4.9) and a league-low 2.2% touchdown percentage and NFL passer rating (76.2) allowed with the eighth-highest interception rate forced (3.1%).
Yeah ... they're good.
Expect a potentially disappointing week for Murray up against the defense that held star rookie Jayden Daniels to a QB11 finish just last week despite 378 total yards on the day.
Heat check 🔥 Consider Murray a "Fade Lite" this week. He's still being started in fantasy lineups, but this could be one of the more volatile weeks that we've seen so far for the QB still seeking week-to-week consistency.
RB Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Second-year RB Bucky Irving made a big-time statement when given the opportunity to lead the Bucs' backfield due to an injury to RB1 Rachaad White. However, in the past two weeks since White's return, they’ve held true to their word about deploying a three-headed monster in the backfield.
In Week 9, the Buccaneers will face a stout Kansas City Chiefs run defense currently allowing the third-lowest EPA per carry at -0.19 and the eighth-lowest rushing success rate at 37.4%. They're yielding a league-low 11.69 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs.
On top of Kansas City's strength in defending the run, the weaknesses of Tampa Bay's defense could certainly spark something on offense for the Chiefs, who will play their second game with WR DeAndre Hopkins this week following a trade from Tennessee. If that's the case, as the Bucs are 8.5-point underdogs in this outing, they could be forced out of the run game rather quickly. Though White played just 10 more snaps than Irving just last week, he ran 28 routes to Irving's 16, giving him a greater opportunity to succeed in this setting.
Heat check 🔥 Consider Irving more of a volatile flex play in Week 9 than a must-start.
RB J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers
The former Baltimore Raven got off to a hot start in L.A. this year, shocking just about everyone with 266 rushing yards and two scores over the first two weeks of the season. In that span, Dobbins ranked as the overall RB4 in half-PPR scoring formats, but he has since floundered; Dobbins has ranked as the RB30 since Week 3 with just one game of 15 or more fantasy points in that span. Though he's averaged 17 rush attempts per game in Weeks 3-8, he's been incredibly inefficient, ranking bottom 10 among RBs with 3.16 yards per attempt and 2.12 yards after contact per attempt (min. 25% of offensive snaps played).
This week, Dobbins will face the newly energized Cleveland Browns defense that had safety Juan Thornhill — a capable defender against the run when healthy — back on the field. Thornhill has been out of the lineup for most of this season, landing on IR with a calf injury after the season opener. However, his presence now gives this defense that is already allowing the 12th-lowest EPA per carry (-0.06) and 10th-lowest rush success rate (37.7%) per NFL Next Gen Stats a boost.
Heat check 🔥 Dobbins is a fine start given that he's averaging just under 19 touches per game; after all, how often do you find that kind of workload for an RB? However, it's best to expect another low-scoring output.
WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins offense took a big step forward in Week 8 with Tua Tagovailoa back at the helm, scoring a season-high 27 points and accumulating their highest yardage total dating back to Week 1's win over the Jaguars — good stuff, but not great. Neither Tyreek Hill (6-72-0) nor Jaylen Waddle (4-45-0) found much success, but it was a plus to see at least some progress on offense.
This week, the Dolphins will travel to Buffalo for a meeting with the Bills, who are currently allowing the second-fewest yards per pass play on targets out wide this year, giving up a league-low -0.27 EPA per pass attempt per NFL Pro. Waddle has historically struggled against the franchise in most of their previous meetings with fewer than 50 receiving yards in five of seven matchups against their AFC East rival.
Waddle just notched his sixth consecutive game as a WR4 or worse for fantasy and is still seeking his first score of the season. Don't count on it happening this week against a defense that's yet to allow a 12-point fantasy day to any opposing WR at home this year. This projects as a better game for Hill, who works the middle of the field more often and can exploit the Bills at safety.
Heat check 🔥 Consider Waddle more of a boom/bust flex play this week than a must-start.
WR Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers
The Packers' former second-round pick has been in a bit of a slump as of late, averaging just 31 receiving yards per game (93 receiving yards, 1 TD total) over the past three weeks — a stark contrast to the "boom" we'd seen earlier in the season, posting two games of 138+ receiving yards and a score in the first four weeks. Reed has been a perfect embodiment of the frustrating task of attempting to predict the Packers' passing game on any given week. Unfortunately, a matchup with the Detroit Lions in Week 9 (however friendly it may appear on paper — they're allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs) may not be what gets Reed back on track.
Among the Packers wideouts, Reed has been the most susceptible to floundering against man coverage this season, which the Lions play at the second-highest rate in the league. Despite leading the team in total targets this season, Reed has seen just 15.7% of them against man — the lowest rate among Packers wideouts with at least 20 targets this year. He's caught just three of his eight targets against man for a total of eight receiving yards (2.7 yards per reception) with four total drops and a passer rating of just 45.8. Yeesh.
Heat check 🔥 I'm a big believer in Reed's talent and season-long value, but I'm considering Reed more of a boom/bust flex play than I am considering this as a potential bounce-back game.
More Fantasy Football analysis
TE Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers
Second-year tight end Tucker Kraft is fantasy football's latest flash and for good reason. After a slow start this year, Kraft has been on an absolute tear; over the past five games, his 17-game pace has averaged out to a ridiculous 61-901-17 stat line that would no doubt earn him a TE1 finish on the season. Despite that ridiculous stat line (and a standing as the TE3 on the year), Kraft has earned just two top-five finishes at the position in that span.
Heading into Week 9, the Packers will be faced with the uncertainty of whether or not starting QB Jordan Love will be available to them after suffering a groin injury (and if he is, whether or not he'll be at 100%). If Love is out, it will be Malik Willis at QB; Kraft ranks fourth on the team in targets from Willis this year behind Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs. The Lions are allowing a league-low -0.57 EPA per dropback on targets to TEs this year, having held Trey McBride and Jake Ferguson to a combined 6.8 fantasy points over their respective outings this season.
Heat check 🔥 As has been the case with most of the tight ends on the "fades" list this year, there aren't many TEs you can afford to truly sit on a week-to-week basis; if you find a player with even marginal upside, you'll probably be setting them in your lineups. Kraft is no exception given the upside he's shown in previous weeks, but it's best to temper expectations for his boom potential in Week 9.
