Fantasy Football Fades & Busts: Temper expectations for these 6 players in Week 6
Just because a player is listed as a “fade” doesn’t mean they are automatic sits. As the adage goes, “Always start your stars.” What a “bust” designation does mean, however, is that you’ll want to consider higher upside options in the flex.
How are you holding up, fantasy managers? It’s been a challenging week, with a number of key contributors to your fantasy football teams heading to IR, including QB Anthony Richardson, RB James Conner and this year’s consensus WR1, Justin Jefferson. At this point in the year, it may be difficult to just complete a lineup, let alone sit a guy because he has a tough matchup. Even if that’s the case, remember the intro above in italics; a “fade” doesn’t always designate an automatic sit. It just means to temper expectations. A “bust”? Well … you’ll really need to temper expectations.
Bust: C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
Houston Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud has been one of fantasy football’s biggest surprises so far in the 2023 season, entering Week 6 as the overall QB13. However, Stroud is facing one of the league’s most underrated defenses in the New Orleans Saints this week, which should have fantasy managers seeking other options if they’re available. The Saints are allowing the second-lowest completion rate in the league at 57.5%, while sitting as just one of five defenses in the league that have forced more interceptions than they have allowed touchdowns. All of this has translated to allowing opposing quarterbacks the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game, giving managers a good reason to look toward other streaming options for the week.
Bust: Brian Robinson, RB, Washington Commanders
The Washington Commanders are coming off of a brutal Week 5 beat down from … *checks notes* ... the 1-4 Chicago Bears. However, that’s not the inspiration for fading lead running back Brian Robinson. Things won’t get any easier for the Commanders this week, traveling to face the Atlanta Falcons, who have held up surprisingly well against the run this season. The Falcons defense is averaging just under 11 fantasy points per game allowed to running backs — the third-fewest in the league — while also sitting as one of just five teams yet to give up a rushing touchdown to a running back this season.
Fade: Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
I’m not here to ask that you sit New York Jets RB Breece Hall after an outing where he posted 194 scrimmage yards and a touchdown to (hopefully) bring your fantasy football teams a W in Week 5. However, it might be best to temper expectations ever-so-slightly with the Jets set to face the vaunted Philadelphia Eagles defense.
On paper, the Eagles appeared to have one of the most suffocating defensive lines in the league in 2023, and boy, have they delivered, especially in defending the run. The Eagles are the only team in the league allowing fewer than 10 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Opposing backs are averaging just 3.1 yards per attempt against this defense and have scored just a single touchdown through five weeks.
The Eagles have done a great job at limiting chunk gains, too, which has been Hall’s forte, tied for the fourth-fewest runs of 10 or more rushing yards allowed while sitting as just one of four defenses yet to give up a run of 20 or more yards this season.
Fade: Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints WR Chris Olave got off to a red-hot start to the season, posting 85 or more receiving yards in each of the first three weeks. Unfortunately, fantasy managers have experienced a precipitous dropoff in production since, with a combined three receptions for 16 yards and a score in their last two outings.
An outing against the Houston Texans secondary in Week 6, however, is not ideal for a bounce-back performance.
The Texans enter this matchup as the fourth-highest graded coverage unit in the league per PFF, tied with the Cleveland Browns for a league-low three passing touchdowns allowed so far this season. The Texans have yet to allow a wide receiver to exceed 80 receiving yards in a game, nor have any receivers exceeded 15 fantasy points in half-PPR scoring formats. This, despite facing some talented receivers in Michael Pittman Jr., Drake London, Calvin Ridley and George Pickens, among others.
Fade: Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals WR Tee Higgins missed Week 5 with a rib fracture, but signs are looking up for him to make a return this week after logging some limited practices. However, fantasy managers should be cautious about deploying him in lineups, given his volatility to start the year. How bad has it been? Well, he’s finished inside the top 80 for fantasy wide receivers in just one of four games played; it’s been feast or famine, and nothing in between.
Higgins himself has specifically noted that his injury is a pain tolerance issue, which only further emphasizes that concern for volatility, as it would take just one big hit to potentially sideline him for the rest of the game. The threat of him on the field is good for the Bengals offense in general, which could mean another big week for WR Ja’Marr Chase, but if he is less than 100%, it could be the case that Higgins is playing more of a decoy role.
The good news is that the Seahawks are a plus matchup for fantasy, having allowed four different wide receivers a 100+ yard game, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the position. Just don’t be surprised if it’s another boom/bust week for this Bengals wideout.
Bust: Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons TE Kyle Pitts finally arrived in Week 5 with his first long-awaited top-12 fantasy finish of the 2023 season. If past precedent tells us anything, however, it’s that we shouldn’t trust Arthur Smith when it comes to our fantasy teams, and by extension of that comes a healthy mistrust in Pitts to build on his Week 5 performance. Pitts has been limited to just two or fewer receptions in three of four games this season, failing to surpass 45 receiving yards in all but one of them. There could be a good reason for that, too, as HC Arthur Smith recently noted that Pitts is “getting close” to 100% in recovery from his 2022 season-ending knee injury.
Reading between the lines, of course, Smith’s comments insinuate that Pitts is not fully healthy, and the data more than supports that notion. Teammate Jonnu Smith has been just as involved in the receiving game, with just three fewer targets than Pitts on the year so far, outpacing him in yards after the catch per reception, missed forced tackles after the catch, yards per route run — you name it.
In Week 6, the Falcons will face the Commanders, who have allowed just 27 yards per game to the tight end position, having given up just a single touchdown to the position through five games this season. It’s not the week to trust this volatile fantasy asset.
