Fantasy Football Fades & Busts: It won't be Alvin Kamara to the rescue in Week 4
Just because a player is listed as a “fade” doesn’t mean they are automatic sits. As the adage goes, “Always start your stars.” What a “bust” designation does mean, however, is that you’ll want to consider higher upside options in the flex.
Welcome to Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season, folks. We’re finally starting to see some patterns form in terms of player usage and defensive strengths and weaknesses to help us set our fantasy football lineups. We’re not here to talk about the “strengths” of the week, however.
We’re here to talk about Week 4 fades and busts.
Bust: Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott hasn’t started the season as fantasy managers had hoped with just 647 passing yards (19th among QBs), three TDs (as many as Justin Fields) and the second-lowest average depth of target in the league. Though that may have helped his interception rate this year, down to 1% after a career-high 3.8% interception rate in 2022, it's limited his upside for fantasy. Through three weeks, Prescott sits as the overall QB25 — not at all living up to his pre-season ADP as the 10th quarterback off the board.
Prescott will take on New England next. So far this season, the Patriots defense has continued to shut down even the best.
In Week 1, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts finished as the QB18 on the week, having been contained fairly well both through the air and on the ground. The defense followed that up by shutting down Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa — the odds-on favorite to win NFL MVP and fantasy’s current QB2 on the season — with a QB27 finish. Hard pass.
Bust: Brian Robinson, RB, Washington Commanders
Commanders RB Brian Robinson has been off to a hot start, having enjoyed a significant volume of work contributing to his standing as fantasy’s RB7 through three weeks. He’s accounted for nearly 39% of the team’s touches to this point, the eighth-highest team touch rate among running backs.
In Week 4, Robinson will face the Philadelphia Eagles in an NFC battle that could shut down Washington's run game altogether. When that happens, it’s unfortunately not been Robinson who’s been the beneficiary of snaps; it’s been “backup” Antonio Gibson who’s seen the snaps as a converted college wide receiver who’s generally well-suited for a role as a receiver.
We saw the split on full display in Week 3 against the Bills, when the Commanders were playing catchup from the start. As they did so, it was Gibson who came to the rescue, playing a season-high 61% of snaps to close out the day. The Eagles have allowed a league-low 145 rushing yards and have yet to give up their first score on the ground, which is unlikely to lead to much for Robinson in Week 4.
Fade: Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
You’ve been patiently waiting all this time for Alvin Kamara to return from suspension, and now I’m here to rain on your parade. Those who were willing to draft Kamara despite knowing he’d miss three games to start the season might not be able to afford to sit him much longer. However, they should temper expectations against a familiar divisional foe as the New Orleans Saints play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in his first game back.
A growing concern for Kamara heading into his seventh NFL season has been his down-trending efficiency. He’s seen a decrease in yards after contact per attempt and missed forced tackle rate in each of the last three seasons. Now, in Week 4 he’ll face the Buccaneers, who have historically kept Kamara in check. Though they haven’t been as strong in defending the run in 2023 as they were last season, this defense has held Kamara to fewer than six PPR points in two of his last three games against them.
Bust: Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
As long as QB Zach Wilson is starting for the New York Jets, there won’t be many matchups you’re excited to start his top wide receiver. Through three weeks, Wilson ranks as the WR30 on the year, behind options like Jakobi Meyers (who’s played just two games), rookie Zay Flowers (who’s had two finishes outside the top 30) and Courtland Sutton (playing for the Broncos; 'nuff said). Per PFF, Zach Wilson ranks 29th among 35 quarterbacks with at least 15 dropbacks this season, with an overall 52.9% accuracy rate. Unfortunately, that’s translated to just 14 of his 21 targets being deemed “catchable.”
In Week 4, the Jets in prime time will face the Kansas City Chiefs, who are allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers through three weeks. This could be a matchup where Zach Wilson is “seeing ghosts,” à la Sam Darnold, and this secondary will likely be there to take advantage when he does. The Chiefs are allowing the sixth-fewest passing yards while allowing just two total passing touchdowns this season.
Bust: Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Addison has performed well for fantasy managers this year, sitting as the WR24 through three weeks. In fact, he’s outscored star wideout Ja’Marr Chase in two of those three. That’s all you can expect and more out of the rookie. However, this week, the Vikings will see an easier matchup against the Carolina Panthers — one that may not put them in a position to be chasing points via the pass as they have in weeks prior.
The Carolina Panthers are allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, though it’s not necessarily due to tight coverage in the secondary. In fact, the Panthers defense has actually faced the fourth-fewest pass attempts in the league, as opposing offenses have favored the run. After all, the Panthers have allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns among NFL teams (six) and the fifth-most rushing yards (410) with game scripts conducive to the run, thanks to the Panthers being a bottom-10 scoring offense. There are better flex plays out there in Week 4 considering the matchup.
Fade: Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
There aren’t many in a position to sit Baltimore Ravens TE Mark Andrews, but if there’s a week to expect the bare minimum from your star tight end, it’s this one. After finishing as the TE3 in his 2023 season debut, Andrews followed it up with a disappointing TE20 finish, posting just 35 receiving yards against the Colts. Now, set to face a familiar divisional rival in the Cleveland Browns, this lock-down defense will give him little hope of making a bounce back in Week 4.
The Browns’ defense has been a shutdown unit across the board this year — generally a matchup to fade rather than to target, but it’s been especially true for the tight end position. Cleveland has allowed a league-low 26 receiving yards total through three weeks. Sure, they haven’t faced the stiffest of competition, but they were able to hold Pat Freiermuth, one of the better receiving tight ends in the league, to just a single catch for two receiving yards.
There aren't many points of weakness for the Browns' defense, so Lamar Jackson won’t find much reprieve in targeting other positions instead of Andrews, but it’s reasonable to expect another down week from him.
