Fantasy Football Fades & Busts: Ferocious Lions could falter in Week 7
Just because a player is listed as a “fade” doesn’t mean they are automatic sits. As the adage goes, “Always start your stars.” What a “bust” designation does mean, however, is that you’ll want to consider higher upside options in the flex.
Welcome to Week 7 of the 2023 season, where six teams are on bye, way too many players are out with injuries and your fantasy football lineup decisions just got all the more difficult! While navigating these challenges, you may not be able to afford to sit players with bad matchups. However, being aware of difficult matchups or circumstances can help you game plan the rest of your lineups appropriately.
Fade: Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff is once again playing football at a high level (and generally underrated) having performed as the overall QB5 in fantasy football this season. It’s been clear dating back to the 2022 season, however, that Goff’s home/road splits can be problematic at times for fantasy managers. Goff is averaging just under 16 fantasy points per game on the road this season in comparison to his average of just under 23 fantasy points per game at home (he did very well in Tampa Bay last week, admittedly). Now, in Week 7, he will have one of his tallest tasks to date up against the Baltimore Ravens, on the road, in one of the league’s toughest environments.
The Ravens are one of just three teams, including the San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills, to allow opposing quarterbacks 10 or fewer fantasy points per game, having allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards and tying for a league-low 0.7 passing touchdowns given up per game. Goff, who’s thrown a full passing touchdown per game fewer on the road than at home dating back to 2022, could struggle in this setting.
Fade: Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fantasy football managers will likely have a difficult time fading White, who ranks 18th among running backs with just over 17 scrimmage touches per game. However, White has largely been inefficient with those touches, averaging the ninth-fewest scrimmage yards per touch (3.8) among the 33 running backs with 50 or more rush attempts this season. It’s not all his fault, either, playing behind an offensive line that sits with the fifth-lowest run-blocking grade in the league per PFF. Regardless of the cause, however, a tough divisional matchup against the Atlanta Falcons is not bound to be the cure.
Helping the Falcons in stopping the run are playmakers at virtually every position, including the offseason additions of DE Calais Campbell and DT David Onyemata, as well as safety Jessie Bates and CB Tre Flowers, both among the top run defenders out of the secondary in the NFL. With these playmakers, the Falcons are giving up the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, ranking top-12 with a 9.6% explosive run percentage allowed and sitting as just one of four defenses to allow fewer than two rushing touchdowns this season.
Enjoy the continued volume of White, but this isn’t the week to expect efficiency.
Fade: James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
James Cook is one of the most explosive running backs in the NFL. He’s also unfortunately an example of the times when talent does not always equate to fantasy football production. Despite the fact that Cook is averaging 4.84 yards per carry and is tied for the fifth-most runs of 10 or more yards among running backs this season (minimum 25 carries), it, unfortunately, hasn’t translated to high upside for fantasy, as he's still seeking his first top-10 finish of the season.
Cook’s explosive playmaking ability makes it such that he’s always in play to break off a run for a score. However, even despite the Patriots’ recent struggles on offense, the defensive line has still been up to the task, allowing a league-low 0.97 yards before contact and 3.48 yards per rush attempt to opposing running backs. Through six weeks, the Patriots have allowed just two running backs 12 or more fantasy points: Raheem Mostert and Alvin Kamara in Weeks 2 and 5, respectively. Both of them took at least 19 touches to get there, a mark Cook has exceeded just twice so far in his career.
Bust: Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
You might be looking at the Las Vegas Raiders’ matchup with the Chicago Bears and salivating, but a back injury that starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo suffered in Week 6 should have fantasy managers on their toes. Should Garoppolo sit this week, and it appears to be trending that way, it would be rookie QB Aidan O’Connell to get the start in his place. This would mark O’Connell’s second career start, with the first having come just weeks ago against the L.A. Chargers with less-than-desirable results. He took seven sacks on the day, threw a pick (no touchdowns) and had three fumbles, two of which he lost; in short, it was a disaster.
Luckily for O’Connell, he’s likely to see significantly less pressure from the Bears, averaging the fifth-lowest pressure rate so far this season, which should help him get past his first read (usually Davante Adams). However, if his first outing was any indication, Adams and RB Josh Jacobs are probably in for a lot of volume, having combined for a whopping 63% target share in Week 4. If Garoppolo does play in Week 7, it’s wheels up for Meyers, who’d sit comfortably in the conversation for a top-15 finish. Just be cautious deploying Meyers if that’s not the case!
Bust: George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers handed second-year WR George Pickens the keys to their pass attack following an injury to teammate Diontae Johnson in Week 1. By most standards, he’s performed well in that role, too, with just under 400 receiving yards and two touchdowns through five games this season despite the lack of production from this offense in its entirety. His 17.9 yards per reception rank sixth among wide receivers, averaging 2.25 yards per route run and 6.3 yards after the catch per reception — all testaments to his high upside when things go right.
This week, however, will mark a shift in the offense as Johnson makes his return from injury, having historically been Pickett’s favorite target. Though the pairing of Pickett and Johnson has generally been an inefficient one, Johnson has averaged nearly two more targets per game over Pickens with Pickett under center. Pair a potential decrease in target share with a matchup against the Los Angeles Rams and things look dicey, as the Rams are allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. The Rams have allowed the third-lowest passing touchdown percentage, which is likely to limit Pickens’ overall upside when paired with the return of Johnson.
Fade: Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions
Given the current state of the tight end position, there’s no world in which you’d ever sit Detroit Lions rookie TE Sam LaPorta, currently the No. 2 scoring tight end so far this season. However, having finished outside of the top 15 in two of the past three weeks, LaPorta has proven that he is, in fact, human. Knowing this Lions team is headed out on the road in a hostile environment like Baltimore, it’s a good time to note that the home/road splits for QB Jared Goff seem to have unfortunately trickled down to LaPorta, averaging just 6.5 fantasy points per game on the road compared to 15.1 fantasy points per game at home.
The Ravens have yet to allow a single receiving touchdown to the tight end position in 2023, allowing a league-low 4.38 fantasy points per game. Of course, they haven’t exactly faced top-notch competition, either, so that number is likely in part due to the strength of competition they’ve faced. However, LB Ravens’ Patrick Queen sits with a 70.6 PFF coverage grade (22nd) so far this season. He's a fierce tackler tied for the second-most defensive stops at the position (12) who could limit the upside of LaPorta’s effectiveness after the catch in Week 7 in a hostile road environment.
