Fantasy Football Fact or Fluke: Was Jaxon Smith-Njigba's breakout for real?
Our mission here is straightforward: to separate the truth from the lie. In sports, almost anything can (and does) happen in any given game. In addition to producing some true highlight reel plays by Garrett Wilson and Saquon Barkley, Week 9 gave us a lot of surprise fantasy performances.
No one’s going to look a gift horse in the mouth, or a zillion fantasy points in your column in our case, but some of these epic stat lines probably happened on your bench. Going forward, can you rely on continued production from these players, or would starting them be a desperate act of chasing points? Let’s get to our biggest (pleasant) surprises of the week and rule on whether they are fact or fluke.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle
With the best fantasy line of any offensive player in Week 9, I really hope you started JSN (or at least, that you didn’t face him). 7/180/2 just isn’t a stat line you see very often in our game, and it was by far the best of Smith-Njigba’s NFL career. The talent has never been a question with him as he was a record-setter among stars at Ohio State (2021). He’s been slowly building momentum leading up to this perfect storm of DK Metcalf sitting out again and the softer pass defense of the L.A. Rams.
What’s next for this potential fantasy superstar? Sadly, I think he comes back down to Earth when Metcalf returns to the lineup. That doesn’t necessarily make him unstartable, since what he was able to accomplish the last two weeks should go a long way toward building trust with Geno Smith and all he needs is a higher target share to succeed. JSN’s YAC and contested-catch ability make him an asset out of the slot — and he is the future of this receiving group.
If you have the luxury to be choosy about when you start JSN, I’m aiming for high-scoring, close or underdog game scripts, and of course, soft defensive opponents. Circle Weeks 12 and 14 against Arizona and Week 16 vs. Minnesota as potential smash spots for Smith-Njigba.
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Given how well Lamar Jackson has played this season, it’s not shocking that Flowers put up a huge stat line (5/127/2) but it still exceeded his managers’ expectations. This was his fourth 100+ yard receiving game of the season, but his first trip to the end zone since Week 2. More kudos to Flowers and Jackson for doing it against an above-average pass defense. Flowers will have his fantasy ups and downs, but it doesn’t look like a Diontae Johnson takeover is imminent in Baltimore. Keep plugging Flowers into lineups.
Mike Gesicki, TE, Cincinnati Bengals
Believe it or not, Week 9 was only Gesicki’s third 100-yard receiving game in the NFL. It hasn’t mattered where he’s played, his receiving skills have been largely ignored. This breakout game (5/100/2) is probably a blip on an otherwise mundane radar. For one thing, he can’t play the defensively challenged Raiders every week. Also, Joe Burrow isn’t throwing five touchdown passes every week, and Tee Higgins will be back. This is unfortunately one of those sweet performances that helped nobody.
Even though fellow Benglas’ TE Erick All Jr. is out for the season, I wouldn’t rush to add Gesicki or start him in the hopes of even half this much production in Week 10. Although the Bengals get a great matchup with division rival Baltimore in Week 10, expect most of the passing production to flow to Ja’Marr Chase and Higgins … unless the latter gets traded ahead of the deadline. In that scenario, Gesicki gets a little more interesting but would still be behind Andrei Iosivas.
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Quentin Johnston, WR, L.A. Chargers
It’s funny how your brain reacts to a player you were super-hyped on a season too early. I drafted a lot of Johnston last year based on his scouting profile and landing position only to be wildly disappointed with his usage. This year? No shares of Johnston, and I’m not even happy to see him succeed.
Well, I’m a little happy because I’m a decent human being, but also still bitter.
He surged back from a two-week absence due to an ankle injury and caught four of five targets for 118 yards and a score.
Aside from a 2-TD game in Week 2, this is Johnston’s only scoring and by far his biggest yardage. He’s approaching rookie Ladd McConkey in target and air yards share, but Joshua Palmer is still in the mix and this is a run-heavy scheme. Justin Herbert ranks 21st in pass attempts and 22nd in passing yards this season, though lower volume has limited mistakes as he is the only QB to have played eight games with only one interception this season. Still, it makes it hard to start two L.A. receivers every week.
Up next are the Titans, who give up the third-fewest fantasy points to WRs. If you have better options, it’s fine to bench Johnston, who really needs big chunk plays to make a fantasy impact, for someone with a more reliable higher target volume.
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Brown is the player fantasy managers love to love. He had all the right offseason hype, was available later in drafts and potentially had a clear path to a valuable role in a hot offense ... if only Zack Moss was out of the picture. It sounds like the pilot episode of "The Penguin."
Seriously though, it all happened for Brown and his managers this past weekend. A great matchup with the Raiders, no Moss and Burrow going nuts. Chase ran the ball 27 times for 120 rushing yards and a touchdown, while adding five catches for 37 yards and another score on five targets. It’s a testament to the running back domination of Week 9 that his line was good for only the RB7 in half-PPR scoring.
Though the matchup certainly greased the wheels, Brown is this good; he’s not a fluke. The only tricky part of the equation is that as much as you and I think this should be Brown’s backfield, the Bengals have now traded to acquire Khalil Herbert from the Chicago Bears following Moss suffering what is believed to be a season-ending injury. Even if Brown is the 1A, there could be a looming 1B. I still think you can start Brown but be aware that his next three matchups range from not great to terrible for fantasy running backs.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
Sutton turned heads by catching seven of 10 targets for 122 yards against the league’s most generous pass defense, Baltimore, in Week 9. Denver moved the ball effectively against this porous secondary, but struggled to punch it in. Sutton accounted for about half of Bo Nix’s air yards and boosted his unusual stat line by throwing a touchdown pass to Nix, the only one of the day for Denver.
The Broncos’ pass offense is tricky to work out. Nix ranks eighth and 10th in pass attempts and completions, respectively, but 21st in yards. He’s thrown only eight touchdown passes (six picks) and boosts his own fantasy line on the ground (295 rushing yards, four TDs). Sutton is the clear No. 1 but has only scored twice this year. Volume alone makes him start-worthy, but you can’t count on a trick play to boost his output every week and I’d be especially cautious heading into a Week 10 matchup with the Chiefs, who allow the fourth-fewest points per game and sixth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Like Johnston, I bought into Jones pretty big last season only to suffer endless disappointment. He is capable of what we expected, but he’s not a QB you can trust every week. A couple of things are surprising about Jones this season. He ranks fourth in pass attempts and sixth in completions but 16th in yards and 27th in fantasy points per game. That’s after his Week 9 QB5 finish (174/2 passing, 54/1 rushing) vs. the Commanders. Those fantasy managers missing Jordan Love or Geno Smith in Week 10 might consider chasing points with Jones against Carolina in Germany this weekend, because as far as fluky, matchup-based, good performances go, the Panthers are where it’s at.
Note: Malik Nabers remains the target hog, but it was nice to see Theo Johnson coming in second with six targets and the touchdown (3/51/1). He could be a nice play in Week 10 as well given that the Panthers are our second-best TE matchup for fantasy.
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Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Carolina Panthers
After much speculation about which Carolina receiver(s) would benefit from the trade of Johnson to the Ravens, it turned out that Sanders was the underestimated guy. Catching four of five targets for 87 yards in Week 9, it was the best game of the rookie’s career. It certainly helped that Tommy Tremble was inactive, but Sanders accounting for just over half of Bryce Young’s passing yards is significant. At 6-foot-4 and 250+ pounds, Sanders is a big target who earned 21% of the team’s targets (same as Xavier Legette) in Week 9. If you’re TE-needy, I wouldn’t hate starting Sanders against NY in Germany.