Fantasy Football Fact or Fluke: So your star(s) suffered an injury before the playoffs — now what?
Week 13 brought the usual roller-coaster ride of NFL performances, which led to a lot of really close matchups in my leagues. There were your old reliables: Tyreek Hill, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel doing what they do. There were also welcomed resurgences from De’Von Achane, Puka Nacua, Nico Collins and Sam LaPorta.
Meanwhile, guys like Jahmyr Gibbs, Jaylen Warren, Garrett Wilson and all the Chargers let fantasy managers down at the worst possible time.
Injuries also piled up on Sunday, and unfortunately carried over to Monday. It’s starting to feel like average fantasy managers are second only to medical professionals in our knowledge of a wide range of injury outcomes. Concussion? One-to-two weeks. High-ankle sprain? Four-to-six weeks. No one still knows what a catch is (shoutout to Trey McBride) or when it’s defensive pass interference (sorry, MVS), but we know that a groin strain can sideline a player for multiple weeks while others can play through broken ribs.
Some of the injuries from this past week directly impacted your upcoming lineups while others have ripple effects that are harder to predict the consequences for. We’ll take a look at the most concerning and give you some ideas of how to move forward toward the playoffs with confidence.
Injuries with obvious corresponding move(s) available:
Tank Dell, Houston Texans (broken fibula)
Noah Brown is the guy to target on waivers if you’ve just lost Tank Dell. It’s sad for the rookie, but it’s not like C.J. Stroud is going to stop throwing (he leads the NFL in passing yards). Brown himself has just returned from a knee injury and was a non-factor in Sunday’s win over Denver. However, in the six games he’s played this season, he’s averaging five targets per game and had two massive efforts when the Texans were without Robert Woods and Nico Collins (Weeks 9-10).
Houston faces a tough Jets pass defense in Week 14, but Stroud has made anyone who fears his wide receivers’ matchups this season look foolish.
Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers (hamstring)
Watson was finally living up to his managers’ expectations before suffering another hamstring strain. This is likely going to take some time, so the red-hot Jordan Love will lean more on Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs. Both are available in slightly less than half of Yahoo leagues, so only shallow leagues will have them as realistic pickup options.
Love has been pretty great over the last three games, behind only Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen and Dak Prescott in fantasy points with eight passing touchdowns and zero interceptions despite facing one of the league’s best defenses in KC Sunday night. I lean slightly more toward Reed as the bigger beneficiary for whatever time Watson misses.
Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders (hamstring)
The Commanders are on bye for Week 14, which complicates the situation. You might be able to get Robinson back for Week 15, but if you need a win this week to make the playoffs that puts you in a bind. If you're in a shallow league, it wouldn’t be great to waste your waiver priority or FAB to add Antonio Gibson. I’d advise trying to add Ezekiel Elliott, Tyjae Spears or other intriguing, widely available backs to fill lineup holes for Weeks 14 and 15, if necessary.
Injuries with risk/reward or longshot replacement options:
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots (ankle sprain)
We expect that Stevenson will miss a few games, if not the rest of the season, given that New England has nothing to play for (besides a higher NFL draft slot). After the team failed to score a single point against the league’s second-most generous fantasy defense, even knowing that Ezekiel Elliott is the next in line for a bell-cow workload isn’t too exciting. I have two positive thoughts for you, though:
Elliott was the lone bright spot in Bailey Zappe’s offense Sunday, rushing 17 times for 52 yards and catching four passes for 40 yards.
The Patriots get Pittsburgh Thursday night — the same Steelers team that let the curtain drop for James Conner to pick up over 100 yards rushing and two scores. Elliott is rostered in 40% of Yahoo leagues, so if you’re desperate, get that bid in.
Zach Charbonnet (bruised knee) and Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks (oblique)
Seattle played Thursday night of Week 13, giving both running backs a longer time to recover from their respective injuries. My guess is that one or both will be ready for a difficult — but very important — matchup with the San Francisco 49ers in Week 14. If not, DeeJay Dallas would be the next man up. He’s never really had the opportunity to shine as a lead back for the Seahawks with just two career starts so it’s hard to say what he would do with a full workload.
In this matchup, however, I’m very pessimistic.
Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals (heel)
The Cardinals showed some grit going cross-country to face a rejuvenated Steelers offense (Week 12, how quickly we forget) and completely dismantled what was one of the league’s best defenses. Kyler Murray wasn’t amazing, but he got the job done with a lot of help from the aforementioned Conner. Brown has been dealing with this mysterious heel injury for some time now and it seems likely that he will have to take some time off for it to heal fully. On the positive side, he will get some rest during the team's Week 14 bye.
On the negative, there might not be more clarity on the nature of Brown's injury or his timetable during the bye, leaving fantasy managers guessing where things will stand in Week 15.
No matter Brown's status, Arizona's passing game hasn't fully clicked since Murray returned. What little success they had Sunday was all Trey McBride (accounting for 89 of the team's 145 receiving yards), and him being the top target could be a sign of things to come. Greg Dortch had the best stat line among the receivers with one catch for 19 yards. Rondale Moore had a touchdown grab called back due to a penalty, but neither of these guys belongs on a fantasy roster heading for the playoffs.
Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns (concussion)
If you’ve been relying on a Cleveland Browns receiver this season, let’s face it, you might not be destined for the fantasy playoffs. But you do still have a job to do in your league, which is to put up the best roster you can against your opponents. If Cooper was starting for you, you could consider Elijah Moore as a desperation pickup (available in about 57% of leagues). He saw 12 Joe Flacco targets in Week 13 (resulting in four catches for 83 yards). However, I’d much rather see you try to get Noah Brown or someone like Jonathan Mingo, who it seems the new coaching staff in Carolina is eager to see more of.
Injuries with major ripple effects — aka, hope for the best:
Trevor Lawrence (ankle)
This is a devastating blow to the Jaguars and their fantasy managers. Lawrence was putting together a terrific effort before injuring his ankle in the fourth quarter. This, after already losing Christian Kirk (groin) on the team’s opening drive. Things briefly looked bright for Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram, the latter of whom caught his first (!?!) touchdown of the season on Monday night. However, if the Jaguars are forced to turn to CJ Beathard for Week 14 at Cleveland, I’m avoiding all Jaguars skill players with the exception of Travis Etienne Jr.
Although Cleveland boasts one of the best overall defenses in the league, they are better at shutting down the pass game than the run game. The Browns allow a league-average 107 rushing yards per game, and rank 24th in rushing touchdowns allowed with 1.1 per game.
Beathard hasn’t seen meaningful action with the Jaguars, last starting a game in 2020 for the 49ers. He was decent Monday night, completing nine of 10 passes and bringing the Jaguars close enough for a game-tying field goal. Historically, however, there’s a reason he’s a career backup QB and Cleveland should have no problem exposing him next Sunday.
In a week fantasy managers need to win, I’d try very hard to rely on someone other than Ridley, Zay Jones or Engram.
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers (ankle sprain)
For George Pickens’ managers, this isn’t great news. The Steelers’ upcoming schedule is New England, Indianapolis and Cincinnati, which isn’t terrible but isn’t great either. The Patriots just held Justin Herbert and co. to six lousy points. The biggest issue is that Mitchell Trubisky and Pickens have not been on the same page when Trubisky has split the game with Pickett (3-25-0 yards in Week 4 and 1-22-1 in Week 8). On the other hand, Trubisky might represent an uptick in value for Diontae Johnson’s managers, as he saw a season-high 8-85-0 on 14 targets in Week 8.
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints (concussion, rib injury)
Look, nothing against Carr, but Jameis Winston might be an upgrade for Chris Olave. You’re still starting Olave with confidence against the Panthers and Giants in Weeks 14 and 15. Taysom Hill is always a risk/reward option, too, especially in these matchups with softer run defenses. This latest injury could easily spell a multi-week absence for Carr, as it is his second head injury within a month. Expect more detail in the coming days, but there are no big moves to make here.