Fantasy Football Fact or Fluke: Reality check on highs and lows of QB play ahead of Week 4
If you’re reading this, you made it through a wild Week 3 in the NFL. Anyone else wake up in the middle of Sunday night hoping that Dallas Cowboys loss was a bad dream? For what it’s worth, I hope this game we love — and sometimes love to hate — continues to surprise us for better or for worse. I’m basically here to make sense of the chaos, figure out when we should trust our gut reactions and sort out the facts to keep our fantasy decisions as logical and rational as possible. This week, I want to do a QB check-in.
Quarterback is the most important position to an actual NFL offense, but if nothing else, Week 3 was a reminder that fantasy matches can be won and lost at any position. If you rostered Keenan Allen, Raheem Mostert, Davante Adams or Kenneth Walker III you likely didn’t need a stellar QB stat line to pull out a victory. Still, in many weeks it will be the make-or-break position for you and at this point in the season we are experiencing some cognitive dissonance between our preseason expectations (hopes? wishes?) and the current reality of QB stats.
A couple of my own QB strategy notes before we get into the players:
In a one-QB league, roster one QB. If you have two, unless your starter has a Week 6 bye and your backup has been specifically selected due to his matchup that week, trade one away. You can also consider dropping one if you feel there isn't a realistic deal to be made.
Implied team total is the best correlate of QB fantasy performance. It’s not perfect, but it should be used as your primary motivation if you are deciding between two players or playing the matchups off the waiver wire every week.
Pure passers (Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins, Tua Tagovailoa) are having a moment, but don’t count out the value of the rushing QB.
QBs exceeding expectations
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Speaking of pretty pure passers, Jordan Love was the second-leading fantasy QB going into Week 3. After throwing for 259/1/1 and rushing for an additional 39/1 against the stout Saints’ defense, Love is now fourth in QB fantasy points per game (22.9). He obviously wasn’t going to throw 3 TDs every week, but thanks to the rushing score, this was his best fantasy line of the season. If you’re fed up with Daniel Jones or Justin Fields, I’d have no issue starting Love over either in Week 4 (vs. Detroit). There’s always the risk that things fall apart once Aaron Jones and Christian Watson return, but I think the poise and good decision-making that have defined Love’s first three games will prevail — plus it should only help the young QB to have more weapons.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
I know fantasy players that have amazing teams but can’t leave well enough alone … always tinkering. Always having to roster — and sometime start — the hot new player. In the realm of the QB, Stroud is that guy. He’s currently fantasy’s QB14 with 906 passing yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions, with all scores coming in the last two games. He’s clearly getting more and more comfortable with fellow rookie Tank Dell. If you’re rostering Nico Collins, the volume will be there again, but maybe not until Week 5. I’m not confident in starting Stroud or his receivers versus Pittsburgh. The Steelers lead the league with 13 sacks and are tied for second in takeaways with eight.
QBs off to a disappointing start
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
One of the biggest fantasy disappointments through three weeks has to be the Jacksonville offense which has scored only 26 points total in the last two weeks. On top of that, Evan Engram, Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk all have exactly 173 receiving yards, while Ridley, Kirk and Zay Jones each have one touchdown to their credit. For the fantasy WR/flex position, this even distribution sucks, but for Lawrence drafters, it’s a fine problem to have. I’m a fan of stacking in season-long, best ball and DFS but if there was a case for a solo QB, Lawrence is making it. He hasn’t come close to meeting or exceeding expectations yet despite fantasy-friendly matchups with Houston, Kansas City and Indianapolis but I’m not giving up yet. Atlanta is up next, and the Jaguars are three-point home favorites. If you have him, start Lawrence one more time.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
It’s possible that Fields has started the season with an unbelievably bad schedule. It’s also possible that he’s part of the reason that Tampa Bay and Kansas City rank in the Top 10 in points allowed. Week 3 was his low point for fantasy, throwing for under 100 yards with one TD and one interception. That brings his season totals to three TDs, four INTs and one rushing touchdown, with an average of 175.3 passing and 36.3 rushing yards per game. It’s bleak given that he was often the sixth-eighth QB taken in fantasy drafts. Fans and former staff alike are calling for Fields to be benched and it’s clear after Fields’ news conference last week that he and the current staff are not on the same page. Personally, I was "lucky" enough to wait a couple rounds to draft Aaron Rodgers and/or Daniel Jones in my SuperFlex leagues, but if Fields was on my roster, the only Week 4 QBs I could start him ahead of are Zach Wilson, Jameis Winston, Joshua Dobbs, Mac Jones, Ryan Tannehill and the Panthers’ starter. Don’t get carried away on the emotional high of what Miami just did to Denver: Chicago is much more likely to score seven points than 70 in Week 4.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
With two mentions, it’s time to address the split performance of Jones. He managed QB1 numbers in the second half of Week 2 in Arizona but bookended that performance with two of the worst of the year (104/0/2 in Week 1, 137/0/1 in Week 3). That’s three picks and zero touchdowns … against what are widely believed to be two of the NFL’s best defenses in Dallas and San Francisco. Let’s see what happens versus Seattle next Monday night; Jones will be in my SuperFlex/2QB lineups (and is still an option in one QB leagues) as Seattle ranks as the fourth-best overall matchup for fantasy. Jones should be able to move the ball through the air with more time to process as well as on the ground via designed or play-action runs. There is also the chance that Saquon Barkley is back in action, which could take some defensive pressure off Jones. Barkley is obviously a must-start if he’s active, but I expect Matt Breida to remain involved so as not to overwork Barkley in his first game back.
QBs we're still trying to figure out
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
The Browns and Watson finally looked like a source of fantasy goodness in their first full game without Nick Chubb. Jerome Ford got his first rushing touchdown, but the headline had to be Amari Cooper once again achieving fantasy relevance (7/116/1). Cleveland is still in the bottom half of the league in pass attempts per game, but the Browns are averaging three more than last year, which is a positive for Watson. He hasn’t made an impact on the ground since Week 1, and I’m afraid he might take a step back fantasy-wise versus Baltimore in Week 4. The Ravens’ defense boasts 3.7 sacks per game and allows fewer than 19 points per game to opponents, while Cleveland has allowed Watson to be sacked four times per game (T-4th-most) and turned the ball over an average of 2.3 times per game.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Let it be known that I’m not writing Smith off just yet. He’s primarily a conundrum for SuperFlex and 2QB leagues, following a disappointing Week 1 (112/1) with a great Week 2 (328/2 plus 20 rushing yards) and then a so-so Week 3 (296/1/1). What are we in for with him? Though his completion percentage has varied, he is so far completing almost eight percent more passes than expected which is the third-highest such rate. His low rate of aggressiveness, of throwing into tight coverage, signals that it is his good decision-making that is leading to more completions to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett rather than their abilities to win the contested catch. Using what we know of matchups so far, the Giants should enable Smith to come out on the higher side of his range of outcomes for Week 4 given that they are the eighth-best fantasy matchup this season.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Last and potentially least interesting on this list, Prescott is just the definition of a whelming QB. Not over or under, just kind of there. This isn’t me being bitter about my Survivor league elimination, I swear. It’s just that Dallas is at its best when Tony Pollard and the defense are doing the lion’s share. Prescott doesn’t seem interested in making the big play or in finding creative ways to get the ball into CeeDee Lamb’s talented hands in space … even when losing to the objectively bad Cardinals. If the loss of Trevon Diggs produced this level of dejected resignation versus Arizona, I’m very worried about what happens to Prescott against the Patriots, who rank up there with Dallas when it comes to limiting the fantasy value of opposing QBs. He’s hard to bench, but I’d rather start someone like Anthony Richardson or Jordan Love in Week 4.