Fantasy Football Fact or Fluke: Is it bad for Brock Purdy and ugly for Davante Adams?
What a week, right?! The 49ers and Eagles both lost close games to inferior opponents, eliminating hopes for a perfect season. Fantasy scoring was way down across the board, with the Dolphins, Jaguars, Rams, Commanders and Falcons helping fantasy managers the most. Injuries were the story of the day, with RBs Christian McCaffrey, David Montgomery and Kyren Williams looking like big losses for their fantasy managers, at least for a week. Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields all left their games with various injuries, as did WRs Deebo Samuel and Garrett Wilson, who did return.
We saw some fantasy favorites coming through for their managers, like Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Travis Kelce, Breece Hall and Travis Etienne. Amon-Ra St. Brown reminded us why he was so highly drafted. Veterans like Derrick Henry and Adam Thielen impressed once again, but other guys we depended on let us down. We got no help in our quest for a win from Davante Adams, Joe Mixon, Dameon Pierce, Mike Evans, Rachaad White, Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Gabe Davis and George Kittle (I could go on…).
As we usually do here, we’ll pick apart a few situations that surprised us, taking the unexpected good with the bad. Since we’re heading into one of the two hardest-hitting bye weeks of the season, we need to figure out what — and who — we can trust.
The Bad
These out-of-the-blue bad performances might have cost us our Week 6 matchups.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
It might have been a bad day for some of us on the fantasy front, but it was a really bad day for Purdy. He threw his first interception of 2023 (a feat he shared with C.J. Stroud) and lost the first game of his career (when he started and finished the game) with a meager 125/1/1 passing line. Credit to Cleveland’s defense, which came into the week allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to QBs and fewest overall to their opponents. Having Samuel and McCaffrey exit early certainly didn’t do Purdy any favors either. Next up is Minnesota, a Top-10 QB matchup in which the 49ers are 6.5-point favorites at home. There’s no need to consider sitting Purdy on a week with so many byes and injured QBs.
Gabe Davis, Buffalo Bills
We always had our suspicions that Davis’ early-season touchdown streak couldn’t continue indefinitely, and it broke big time as he caught only three passes for 21 yards and fumbled away a decent gain on the sideline. This was an embarrassing game, despite the ultimate W, for the Bills. We expected great things facing a Giants defense that ranked in the Top-10 against WR and RB (add James Cook to the list of disappointments). Both Davis and Cook are must starts in Week 7, and every week in all but the smallest of leagues, at least at the FLEX position. A tilt with New England hasn’t traditionally been favorable, but the Patriots’ defense is riddled with injuries. Davis remains the boom-or-bust kind of player that I find impossible to leave on the bench.
Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars
On a day when Jacksonville really looked like it had it together — Travis Etienne scored twice, Christian Kirk found the end zone and Evan Engram caught all seven of his targets — there wasn’t a lot of flash in Ridley’s pan. He led the team in targets (eight), though he only hauled in four of them. There was a predictable too-many-mouths-to-feed problem in Jacksonville, but we expected more consistency from Ridley based on where he was drafted. He’s now had three good games and three bad ones without a predictable pattern (i.e. home/away, good/bad defensive opponent or teammate injury). Like Davis, you just have to start Ridley, hope he can convert his opportunities and that they come at prime times, like in the end zone. Note that this is my advice knowing that the Jaguars play Thursday night in New Orleans and that C.J. Beathard might be the starting QB with Lawrence battling a knee injury. You’d have to have an amazingly deep WR pool to consider sitting Ridley.
The Ugly
The consistency of these bad stat lines takes us to a very dark place.
Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
I’m a fan of Jakobi Meyers, so I do love seeing his success in Las Vegas this season, but as an Adams manager in a key dynasty league, I’m sweating his last two or three games. The highlight of his season was in Week 3, when he saw 20 targets and amassed almost half of his season-long fantasy points. He still saw a good number of targets in Week 4 (catching eight of 13 for 75 yards), but that number has dwindled to five and four targets the last two games. Of the last three, the Raiders have won two games, and Josh Jacobs has been a bigger part of the game plans. Meyers has done a better job of converting his recent red-zone targets into touchdowns, with 2/3 in the last two games (Adams has 0/8 red-zone touchdowns). Jimmy Garoppolo is recovering from a back injury that required a brief hospital visit, making it possible that we see another Aidan O’Connell start in Week 7 (at Chicago). Adams has been giving us some ugly results, possibly due to his own lingering shoulder injury(?), but his usage — especially near the end zone and with O’Connell in Week 4 — is still high enough to auto-start him this week.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Mixon hasn’t had a really great game for his managers this season, failing to tally 100 rushing yards in all six games and scoring just one touchdown. His usage in the passing game is up and down, with up being a mere 4-to-5 targets per game. As Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have rounded into better shape the last couple of weeks, I admit I was hoping it would rub off on Mixon, who hasn’t had a 15-fantasy-point game yet. He’s on bye in Week 7, then faces the 49ers in Week 8. If you’ve been savvy on the waiver wire, or plan to make some big moves this week, Mixon is benchable until he shows he’s worth starting (maybe Week 9 in Buffalo?).
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings
Instead of being one of the best Zero RB draft stories of 2023, Mattison is serving as a cautionary tale. In his six games, he’s also failed to tally 100 rushing yards and has zero rushing touchdowns … that’s not what anyone meant by “Zero RB.” With the backfield cleared of competition and a loaded pass offense, Mattison should be better. His role in the passing game is saving his managers in PPR formats (18/104/2) and so far, he’s stayed well ahead of Cam Akers in usage. But Akers is already highlighting Mattison’s inefficiency (for example, Akers 5.7 YPC vs. Mattison 3.8 YPC in Weeks 4-6). Facing the 49ers in Week 7, Mattison shouldn’t be starting in 10-team leagues.
The Good
Always save the best for last. These are the bright spots in Week 6 that probably helped our benches outscore our starters.
Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders
A lot on Las Vegas this week, I know, but when a tight end does something — anything — positive I’ve got to comment. Mayer caught five of six targets for 75 yards in Week 6, all career highs for him. He’s shown a nice after-the-catch ability in the last two games and could be another factor in the demise of Adams’ fantasy value. Mayer was the third tight end selected in the draft this year and given his uptick in usage and success, he’s a great stash if you have room on your roster. I’m not ready to declare him the next Jason Witten or whoever yet, but starting him in Week 7 vs. Chicago isn’t the worst plan if you’re bye-week needy at TE.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
See above on the tight end landscape. Two weeks of good production from Pitts is something to write home about. Pitts had 11 targets in Week 5 (7/87 yards) and went 4/43/1 in Week 6. Teammate Jonnu Smith also scored in Week 6 and has been averaging 6-to-7 targets per game since Week 2. From zero receiving options outside of Drake London, to two fantasy-relevant tight ends is quite the stretch for Atlanta. I’m still skeptical here, as Desmond Ridder throwing more (47 attempts in Week 6) led to more mistakes (three interceptions) as well as more yards and touchdowns. Since the Falcons ultimately lost the game, I’m hesitant to believe they’ll abandon their positionless run-first game plans, making Pitts less of a sure thing than some will want to believe. You probably won’t have a choice to bench him in Week 7, but keep your expectations in check vs. Tampa Bay.
Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans Saints
Week 6 was a breakout for Shaheed, who hadn’t done much since Week 1, though that was marred by a lost fumble. Shaheed only caught two of six targets, but showed off his speed with a majority of his 85 yards coming after the catch. The Saints also got him two rushing attempts (18 yards) and, of course, one of his catches resulted in a touchdown. It’s noteworthy that Shaheed owns the two best WR performances from the Saints all season, but his lows are very low, meaning we have to give him the dreaded boom/bust label, too. If an injury were to occur to any other Saints receiver, Shaheed would be an interesting player. But for now, most fantasy managers shouldn’t overreact to this outburst.
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
Hopefully people gave Stevenson this one more chance to get their squad some fantasy points, because despite a maximally dysfunctional Patriots offense, he finally did it! Rushing 10 times for 46 yards and a touchdown, along with catching five passes for 24 yards yielded the best New England running back performance of the season (15.5 fantasy points). That landed Stevenson as the RB7 for the week. The Bills have given up some decent stat lines to opposing backs, including Saquon Barkley this past week, Etienne in London, Breece Hall in Week 1 and De'Von Achane in Week 4. Start Stevenson again in Week 7.
