Fantasy Football: The 2024 All-Breakout Team
You don't always win your fantasy league with early-round picks. Oftentimes, it's the players you draft at a value ahead of their breakouts who win you the year.
Here are six players to consider targeting in 2024, primed for a fantasy breakout.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
He's arguably the easiest money-grab on this list, but if we're discussing fantasy breakouts, second-year QB Anthony Richardson is a name deserving enough to top it. One could argue that Richardson already broke out as a rookie, having finished as a top-four fantasy QB in each of the two games he started and finished last year. However, a season-ending shoulder injury derailed that uber-promising rookie campaign.
I won't spend too much time harping on the upside of a man who literally broke the NFL combine with a perfect 10/10 Relative Athletic Score (RAS):
Anthony Richardson RAS so far.
And there it is.https://t.co/g6dAq3ALm4 #RAS pic.twitter.com/p8isZWrHp4— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 4, 2023
Instead, I'll note that Richardson led all quarterbacks in 2023 with 0.73 fantasy points per dropback (min. 50 dropbacks) and is entering his second season now healthy with an incredibly deep receiving corps of Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, rookie Adonai Mitchell and Alec Pierce. Suppose Richardson can continue his development as a passer. In that case, I agree with analyst Dalton Del Don — a finish as the overall QB1 in fantasy football is hardly outside the realm of possibility.
Zack Moss, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
There is a pretty monstrous divide in the fantasy community between those stanning Zack Moss (me) and those all-in on second-year RB Chase Brown (everyone else). Though there's a pretty reasonable pathway to something very near a 50-50 split for these two backs in 2024, I still think the most likely scenario is that it's Moss paving the way for a breakout this year.
Apparently, the Bengals agree, having listed him as the RB1 on the team's first depth chart of the season.
Moss had a slow start to his career, dealing with injuries early on while sharing the backfield in Buffalo with Devin Singletary. Unfortunately, sharing a backfield wasn't something that best complemented his skill set as a physical running back who wears down opposing defenders. However, fantasy managers eventually got a taste of Moss' potential with a full workload once he filled in for then-injured Jonathan Taylor last season, averaging 14.96 fantasy points per game without Taylor.
Though most give Brown an edge in the Bengals backfield as the more explosive option, Moss has earned just as much hype throughout the offseason after earning a two-year, $8 million deal with the Bengals in free agency despite what they saw from Brown as a rookie. Moss out-ranked Brown in most efficiency metrics last season, including yards per carry, first-down/touchdown%, PFF rushing grade and stuff rate.
Zack Moss ranked behind only Christian McCaffrey and James Conner in rushing yards over expectation per carry last year.
Chase Brown ranked dead-last of 77-qualifying RBs in success rate last year. https://t.co/z4y1koPzpN— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) August 5, 2024
Moss' greatest edge over Brown came in short-yardage situations; he averaged 5.1 yards per carry on such attempts to Brown's 0.0 (literally), earning a 77.6 PFF rushing grade on such plays, which ranked 13th among running backs (min. 25 carries). If Moss earns the standing as the team's primary goal-line runner, that will automatically earn him a bid somewhere in the top-15 range for fantasy even if the total number of carries is fairly evenly split.
James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills offense is among the most interesting projections in the NFL after some significant shifts in personnel with the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. It's what hasn't changed, however, that has me excited for a true breakout from RB James Cook in his third NFL season.
What hasn't changed in 2024 is the fact that James Cook is the RB1 on the Bills offense that now-full-time OC Joe Brady is leading.
After the firing of Ken Dorsey last season, Cook's role in the offense under then-interim OC Brady grew substantially, averaging 20.1 scrimmage touches from Week 11 on through the postseason, with 15+ carries in seven of nine contests in that span. He also saw an expanded role in the receiving game to close out the year, averaging just under 14 fantasy points per game in half-PPR formats.
All in all, Cook had himself a solidly efficient sophomore season, averaging 4.7 yards per carry and 1.33 yards per route run (10th among qualifying RBs). Given the stability at offensive coordinator and a significant volume of vacated targets, Cook could be in for a big third-year leap. He's currently being selected, on average, as the 15th running back off the board in Yahoo drafts.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Can someone please explain George Pickens' Yahoo ADP of WR27 like I'm 5? It seems likely that most have faded him this offseason with the presumption that Brandon Aiyuk could be headed to Pittsburgh, but now that he's signed an extension with the Niners, there's no reason to continue allowing Pickens to fall down draft boards.
Let's consider the fact that he finished as the WR26 in 2023 catching balls from Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph, all who combined for a 22% uncatchable pass rate last season per PFF — the seventh-highest among NFL teams. Pickens will get a huge upgrade at quarterback regardless of who's under center in 2024 — Russell Wilson or Justin Fields — especially with new OC Arthur Smith in the building ready to give this team a boost.
Last year, Pickens had the unfortunate luck of playing on a team that ranked bottom-seven in successful play percentage (31.8%), scoring drive percentage (29.9%) and offensive plays per game (62.9) per PFF. Despite that, he ranked second among all wideouts with 100+ targets averaging 17.5 yards per reception (only behind 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk) while also ranking top five with 6.1 average yards after the catch and 17th in yards per route run (2.20). Given the projected improvements in the offense with improved quarterback play and a new offensive scheme not led by Matt Canada, it appears Pickens' ceiling has yet to be reached.
This offseason, the team also traded veteran wide receiver Diontae Johnson, who's accounted for a 23.9% target share for the Steelers over the past three seasons. Considering both the projected increase in target volume and efficiency in the offense, Pickens is poised for his best fantasy finish to date heading into Year 3.
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Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers have an unusual-looking depth chart at wide receiver, without any clear-cut alpha WR1 at the top but a richness in depth all the way down to WR5 that most teams could only dream of. It's muddied the waters in a big way for fantasy football drafts, with four different Packers wideouts being drafted between WR36 and WR57.
The guy I'm taking my shot on ahead of 2024, however, is second-year WR Jayden Reed.
Reed finished his rookie season on a red-hot streak for fantasy managers, ranking as the overall WR9 in the second half of the season (Weeks 10-18). In that span, Reed averaged just under 15 fantasy points per game, having led all Packers receivers in targets (54), receptions (41), receiving yards (460) and receiving touchdowns (5).
Jayden Reed: A Play-Caller's Dream
All 105 of his targets + rush attempts from 2023📽️ pic.twitter.com/xzVFiTo0u7— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) July 31, 2024
Despite a relatively low average depth of target (10.32) in comparison to his teammates, Reed made the most of his target share, ranking fourth among wideouts in fantasy points per snap (0.37), eighth in fantasy points per route run (0.56) and fifth in fantasy points per target. Reed checked a lot of boxes as a rookie, passing the eye test while also having showcased success, averaging a respectable 1.95 yards per route run (80th percentile among WRs, per PFF) and an 84.5% open target rate that ranked 12th among wideouts.
Reed is being drafted earlier than any other Packers wideout with an ADP of 95.8 in Yahoo leagues, but I'm still all-in at that cost given his potential as the top target on an ascending offense under QB Jordan Love.
Jonnu Smith, TE, Miami Dolphins
I promise, if Jonnu Smith doesn't pan out in 2024, it will be the last time I utter his name as a potential breakout.
For now, though, I'm holding out hope that Smith could be set for his best fantasy season to date. After all, he is coming off a 2023 campaign that saw him notch a career-high 582 receiving yards despite playing in a backup role behind starting tight end Kyle Pitts with the Atlanta Falcons.
Last year, Smith played a career-high 52.8% of snaps out of the slot, which suited him tremendously in terms of efficiency. He ranked 10th among tight ends (min. 50 targets) with 1.55 yards per route run while tying superstar George Kittle for the second-highest yards after the catch (7.3 average).
Now, after signing with the Miami Dolphins this offseason, Smith will have an opportunity to carve out a role in an uber-efficient Mike McDaniel offense that ranked top-three in yards per attempt (8.01) and explosive pass rate (19.1%) per PFF.
Don't be surprised if Smith takes over as the primary receiving option at TE for the Dolphins this year and by default, his best fantasy season to date.