Fantasy Football Booms and Busts: Bijan Robinson might be a league-winner after all
For most of the fantasy football season, Bijan Robinson has been a frustrating player. He’s tied to a maddening offense, a mercurial coach and an erratic role.
But there’s no ignoring the Robinson rampage from Week 12. He’s starting to look like a league-winner.
Robinson was the dominant fantasy player in Sunday’s early window, rolling up 123 total yards and a couple of touchdowns in a 24-15 victory over New Orleans. Robinson had one touchdown by ground, one by air, and succeeded in a number of Atlanta offensive sets. Sometimes the Falcons were under center, sometimes in the shotgun or pistol. The offensive line pushed New Orleans around, and when Robinson has time to get a head of steam and pick his lane, exciting things happen.
Peruse the Robinson tape, see what you make of it. Robinson wasn’t touched on his first touchdown, a mix of dynamic blocking and Robinson’s world-class burst. The second score was a nifty timing throw from up-and-down quarterback Desmond Ridder, which turned into the game-clinching points.
Robinson posted plenty of solid fantasy games before this week, but we were still waiting for that monster performance. His best half-point PPR grading through the first 10 weeks were a couple of RB8 showings in the first two weeks. Sunday’s 25.8 points slotted him as the RB3 in Yahoo scoring as we go to press, trailing just Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams on the week.
Robinson was a common name mentioned in Sunday’s start-sit discussions. That’s probably come to an end now. The Falcons are leaning into him for the stretch run, and the remaining schedule looks delightful. Four of Robinson’s next five opponents — the Jets, Panthers, Colts and Bears — rank in the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to running backs. The only tricky mark on the schedule is the Week 14 home date against Tampa Bay — and heck, the Buccaneers didn’t keep Jonathan Taylor down Sunday.
Tough to trust other Falcons
I wish I could emphatically endorse the rest of the Atlanta offense. It’s still a hit-and-miss group. Drake London was impressive on a 5-91-0 afternoon, absorbing seven targets. That’s 33% percent of the passing-game pie here, but it’s a small pie — the Falcons attempted only 21 passes. Desmond Ridder threw a couple of bad picks, and you get the idea the Atlanta coaches view Ridder as a quarterback who needs to be carefully managed.
And with London and Robinson combining for 13 targets, there wasn’t much room for other Atlanta players. Kyle Pitts caught both of his targets, for 22 yards. The Falcons haven’t unlocked him all year. He's no longer a fantasy consideration in most pools.
Missed opportunities for Saints
The Saints offense had no trouble moving the ball (444 yards, 22 first downs), but left a bunch of points on the field, failing to get into the end zone. Injuries didn’t help. Chris Olave was dominating (7-114-0, nine targets) before a third-quarter concussion ended his day. Rashid Shaheed (2-9-0, five targets) suffered a second-quarter hamstring injury and didn’t return, either.
Alvin Kamara is stuck on three touchdowns, but at least volume carried him to a passable fantasy score (15-69 rushing, 4-50 receiving). Derek Carr killed one drive with a pick-6, and Taysom Hill lost a fumble.
The Falcons and Saints are now tied for the NFC South lead, both teams at 5-6. Although the Buccaneers still have a shot, just a game back, it’s likely the New Orleans-Atlanta rematch Week 18 will be for the divisional title, perhaps flexed into the evening slot.
Maybe watching Arthur Smith coach in prime time isn't your idea of a party. But Bijan Robinson is ready to take a sad song and make it better.
Speed Round
• Spreading the games out on Thanksgiving week is a double-edged sword. It's nice to have six stand-alone games for the week; we can get more eyes on more players, more teams, more situations. It's perfect for scouting. But with the Lions, Cowboys, Niners and Dolphins all off the menu before the weekend hit, the early window Sunday felt skimpy, an Italian grinder without the meat.
• For weeks Rashee Rice has been the efficiency darling in Kansas City. Sunday they finally gave him the volume and a predictable line followed — 8-107-1 on 10 targets. Andy Reid didn't rush Rice, but he can't unsee this type of production. Rice is an easy start the rest of the season.
• We don't need Aidan O'Connell to be great, we just need him to be good enough to support the three fantasy-playable Raiders: Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. AOC wasn't sharp down the stretch against the Chiefs, but he had his best start of the year Sunday. We can trust the Vegas triplets.
• It's hard to know what to do with players in nebulous injury situations. Cooper Kupp started Sunday, but likely wasn't close to full health. Kyren Williams returned after a multiple-week injury. Result: Williams ran wild like a Pro Bowler, while Kupp was essentially a decoy. There's a lot of guessing to the games we play. Royce Freeman eventually got his backfield work, too, in the blowout, but I expect Williams to have a dominant workload share in the close games.
• James Conner is the lead back in Arizona but with Kyler Murray running aggressively — and even Clayton Tune gets some occasional rushing chances — the goal-line equity flies out the window. And it's not like the Cardinals often play with a favorable game script; they're 2-10 for a reason. The defense was embarrassed by an ordinary Rams team Sunday. If you have championship dreams, you need starting backs better than Conner.
• The Browns and Broncos are essentially the same team — very good defense, credible skill talent and a game of hide-the-quarterback. The comp isn't a seamless overlap — Russell Wilson is better than the remaining Cleveland quarterbacks, and the Browns defense is better than Denver's — but the framework is the same.
Most AFC contenders would love to see either team make the playoffs, if it kept the Bills out. Buffalo now sits at 6-6, despite a plus-101 point differential. I realize it's a misleading game to say this, but Buffalo is no more than 10 plays from being undefeated. Alas, the Bills are now longshots to make the AFC tournament.
• Keenan Allen has the perfect setup — he's the only downfield option the Chargers trust, but his average gain is so modest, defenses don't feel obligated to throw all resources toward stopping him. Fantasy managers love the 14-106-0 line that Allen posted Sunday. The Ravens see 106 yards on 16 targets — that's a modest 6.63 per attempt — and probably conclude "that's not beating us." The Chargers finished with 10 measly points.
• Derrick Henry needed two touchdown runs to make the most out of 18 carries for 76 yards against Carolina, the worst team in football. The Titans don't play another bad team the rest of the year: Colts, Dolphins, Texans, Seahawks, Texans, Jaguars. Henry obviously has little receiving role and can get lost in the game script when Tennessee falls behind. He's not an automatic starter for the fantasy playoffs.
• Pat Freiermuth toyed with the Bengals for three hours, a 9-120-0 beauty that featured a variety of routes. But everyone in the Pittsburgh passing game is usually fighting over one Kenny Pickett touchdown pass, and on this Sunday, Pickett didn't throw any. Pittsburgh's current blueprint is never going to change — let's try to keep Pickett from losing the game, let's control the clock with two decent backs, and let's see if T.J. Watt and the defense can win it for us. There's no shortage of candidates, but maybe this is the time Mike Tomlin finally wins Coach of the Year.
