Fantasy Basketball Trade Analyzer: Yes, it's time to deal for Grayson Allen
By Henry Weinberg, RotoWire
Special to Yahoo Sports
We're about a third of the way through the season, with Christmas Day just around the corner. Many fantasy trade deadlines are approaching, and the real-life deadline isn't far away either. Now is as good of a time as ever to assess your team and make some trade offers.
Trade for: Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets
Murray being unavailable for 14 of Denver’s 27 games thus far, combined with failing to post a 30-point game through his 13 appearances, sets up his buy-low viability. Back-to-back tame performances were followed by 22 points, two rebounds and four assists in Monday’s win over Dallas. But even then, Murray isn’t exactly dazzling.
It’s likely only a matter of time until he settles into production similar to the 20.0 points and 6.2 assists averaged through 65 games last season. In 2023-24, Murray’s assist rate is at an all-time high of 28.9%, and he’s canning 44.0% of his off-the-dribble threes. Denver’s offense still ranks in the top 10, although there seems to be slight championship fatigue, evident through losses in four of their past seven games. A fresh, in-rhythm Murray will be a boon to the offense. The Nuggets also have the fourth-easiest schedule moving forward.
Trade away: John Collins, Utah Jazz
Collins returned from a four-game absence due to illness Monday, supplying 11 points and three rebounds while playing on a cap of 20 minutes. The 26-year-old is amid a moderately efficient campaign for the Jazz, having posted 48.2/38.3/75.0 shooting percentages on 11.4 shots per game through his first 22 appearances. Additionally, his 8.6 rebounds per game have climbed to the highest point since averaging 10.1 in the 2019-20 season. Collins' statistical production is what makes him sellable in fantasy environments and potentially to the Jazz in actuality.
There is reportedly frustration on Collins’ “slow uptake on learning the Jazz system on both ends of the floor.” Collins is on the trade block, which adds a ton of uncertainty to his rest-of-season value and could result in healthy scratches if Utah would rather devote those minutes elsewhere. Collins' trade market in the summer was barren, with the Jazz parting with a second-round pick to acquire the forward for a change of scenery.
Despite the change of scenery, Collins' usage has been eerily similar to the trends that resulted in him falling out of favor in Atlanta. An inability to acclimate to Utah's system aligns with spending 47.2% of his offensive possessions as a spot-up shooter or in transition. That marks his lowest involvement in half-court actions of any point in his career. He’s essentially a play finisher. His post-up repertoire isn’t relevant to his play style at the moment, and he isn’t being relied upon as a roll man despite the latter being a strength of his game in his prime alongside Trae Young in Atlanta.
It's not a coincidence that Taylor Hendricks exceeded 20 minutes of action in all four recent contests that Collins missed, and Hendricks has been a consistent member of the rotation throughout December. The No. 9 overall pick in the 2023 Draft is a developmental focal point for the Jazz, which is already difficult in a crowded frontcourt. Collins becoming the odd man out could already be happening.
Trade away: Onyeka Okongwu, Atlanta Hawks
Okongwu’s breakout campaign is not coming in 2023-24. The 23-year-old’s block rate has declined to 1.8%, whereas his career low across three prior seasons was 2.9%. Blocks were a huge component of his boom appeal entering the season, so even though he and Clint Capela are both approaching 30-minute workloads on a nightly basis, the fantasy profile is limited. Okongwu grades as an above-average — but not spectacular — rim finisher and rebounder, but he's posted just four games with double-digit rebounds, four games with multiple blocks and three games with 15-plus points through 25 appearances this season. The ceiling is lower than anticipated.
Jalen Johnson (wrist) is due to be re-evaluated next week, and his eventual return will crunch Atlanta’s frontcourt minutes. Johnson is a central piece for diversity of the offense, as well as a rising two-way force in the league. Meanwhile, Okongwu’s extension is likely very well-regarded around the league. This adds to his trade value and could put him on the table in Pascal Siakam talks if Atlanta opts to swing big. I view a trade featuring Okongwu as unlikely, but the fact that his playing time could take a hit down the stretch because of Johnson makes him extremely replaceable, barring a defensive surge.
Trade for: Grayson Allen, Phoenix Suns
Allen isn’t an overly endeared NBA player, but he’s amid one of the best shooting seasons in NBA history. Since the addition of the three-point line, only 10 players have posted 46.0% shooting on over 4.0 threes per game while launching at least 100 attempts and averaging at least 32.0 minutes per game. Allen surpasses each threshold with room to spare, profiling as arguably the top sniper in the league this season.
He’s missed time recently with minor hamstring/groin issues as well as an illness, and he’s coming off two mediocre games, so his prospective managers might not fully realize the magnitude of his value. He’s a rock-solid target to throw into a larger deal for fantasy squads in need of shooting and scoring. Averaging 4.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 2.1 free-throw attempts per game all mark career highs for the 28-year-old as well.
Trade for: Isaiah Hartenstein, Knicks
I want Isaiah Hartenstein shares immediately — and not solely in response to his 17-rebound outburst Sunday. I’ve been a Hartenstein fan since calling him one of the top free-agent additions of 2022 … which was a bit niche, but he's good.
He’s a super active player who logged 38 minutes Monday after Jericho Sims sprained his ankle on the opening tip. Mitchell Robinson (ankle surgery) is six to eight weeks from returning, and Hartenstein has averaged 31.1 minutes per game through five total games without Robinson so far.
He’s extremely conducive to good Knicks offense, evident through a plus-3.8 net rating per 100 possessions, 67.0% shooting at the rim, a 14.1% offensive rebounding rate (93rd percentile league-wide per CleaningTheGlass) and generating a slightly-above-average 1.009 on all team actions coming off a Hartenstein screen.
From a fantasy standpoint, especially for managers active enough to be streaming one or two roster spots, clogging your flexibility with Hartenstein might be more inconvenient than helpful. He isn’t ceiling-raising, nor will he be overly beneficial for the fantasy playoffs once Mitchell Robinson returns. Nonetheless, in deeper leagues or on the wire, I’m loving Hartenstein.
