Fantasy Basketball Trade Analyzer: Why you want to deal for two Pistons amid 20-game losing streak
By Henry Weinberg, RotoWire
Special to Yahoo Sports
Welcome to a buy/sell report with a number of wild cards. The production of Ausar Thompson, Scoot Henderson and Bennedict Mathurin are tough to project, but each have volatility and roles worth diving into.
Let's go.
Trade For: Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons
Thompson was a prime buy-low candidate prior to racking up 20 points (8-10 FG) Monday. That being said, across 10 games prior, the rookie averaged just 7.9 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.5 steals and 0.6 blocks in 21.5 minutes per game.
Contextually unaware owners of Thompson might not realize that a combination of foul trouble and efforts from coach Monty Williams to tweak rotations amid a 20-game losing streak are relevant factors contributing to Thompson’s quiet stretch. Defense has been an emphasis for Detroit's coaching staff, making Thompson's role among the safest on the Pistons. He has the ability to make plays as a rebounder and turnover-forcer. The shot remains raw, but Thompson’s athleticism still merits serious fantasy appeal.
Trade For: Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
Sticking with the Pistons, Duren should be inquired about despite recently being diagnosed with a 2-to-3-week recovery for a sprained left ankle. The 20-year-old had just returned from a five-game absence due to a sprain and inflammation in his right ankle. Although the health of Duren’s ankles and Detroit’s management of his usage down the stretch of the season are critical factors, Duren’s incumbent fantasy managers might not have the patience to stick with him amid another absence.
From a 14-game sample size, Duren is averaging 15.7 points, 13.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.7 blocks per 36 minutes this season. He has the ability to be a difference-maker if healthy, and he’s at a quality buy-low juncture even if there’s moderate risk involved.
Trade Away: Scoot Henderson, Portland Trail Blazers
Despite spending two years in the G League prior to being drafted, Henderson still doesn't appear comfortable in Portland's offense. Given that he’s only 13 games into his career and has been operating with Duop Reath as his main pick-and-roll partner for the past week, Henderson’s struggles are understandable. They can be justified as basic acclimation and victim of circumstance.
However, Henderson’s style is so dominantly heavy in pick-and-roll action that acclimating alongside Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe could prove difficult. Henderson ranked in the 91st percentile of all G League qualifiers last season by running PnR on 58.1% of his possessions. Simons has only appeared in seven games, but he spent 34.3% of his possessions in PnR last season, even alongside Damian Lillard. During Simons’ 2023-24 absence due to a thumb injury, Sharpe has climbed to 30.6% PnR frequency. No other team in the league has a three-headed logjam monster quite like Portland.
Henderson wasn’t part of the Trail Blazers’ closing lineup Monday, despite posting a season-best 19-point effort. Portland has the most room to be patient with the rookie. Whereas Sharpe getting Year 2 reps is important, Simons maintaining trade value is also important — ditto for Malcolm Brogdon (knee) when he returns to the fray. Henderson also has the least proven off-ball game, as his three-point stroke was the major knock on his draft profile. It could be a struggle for Henderson to find his niche offensively and blossom into a star fantasy contributor in Year 1. Coming off a strong effort Monday, he’s in a great mid-hype sell spot.
Trade For: P.J. Washington, Charlotte Hornets
As a volume bucket-getter with rebounding prowess, Washington’s fantasy profile is perpetually enticing. His fantasy appeal grows while Mark Williams (back) is out because Charlotte is horrendous defensively, and Washington thrives offensively when he plays the five.
Washington has cooled since supplying 17.2 points in the season's first 10 games, dipping to 10.8 points on 36.3% shooting since. Averaging 12.3 points across six games since LaMelo Ball suffered a severe ankle sprain, Charlotte’s offense is holistically regressing slightly — although Terry Rozier and Miles Bridges have excelled as self-creators.
Washington hasn’t boomed for a 20-plus point performance since Nov. 14. His ceiling has certainly been dented, but he's still an essential piece of Charlotte's offense. Washington’s shot diet features 47.5% of his attempts coming from beyond the arc, so he’s an especially viable target for managers seeking a boost in threes. A career 36.3% shooter from deep, Washington has shot 35.5% from deep over his last seven games, putting his season-long 32.8% clip firmly on the rise.
Trade Away: Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers
Mathurin flirting with a triple-double (30 points, seven rebounds, eight assists) in Monday's victory over Detroit was a contrast in style from the second-year guard’s typical tunnel vision and single-minded scoring.
I’m interested in keeping Mathurin because of Indiana’s potent offense. He also possesses the ability to continue evolving into a more well-rounded playmaker. However, I’m interested in selling Mathurin because I’m skeptical of his ability to evolve into a more well-rounded playmaker. Additionally, Buddy Hield relinquishing the starting spot feels unlikely, and there’s a strong chance that the Pacers value Hield’s helpfulness in clinching a playoff berth more than the trade return they’d get in exchange for his expiring contract at the deadline.
Mathurin’s season-long assist rate is up, his turnover rate is down, and his three-point shooting has climbed to 37.5% on 3.4 triples per game. The main regression is his free-throw rate, which has dropped from being elite (drew fouls on 20.2% of his shots as a rookie) to being above average (drawing fouls on 12.6% of his shots). When Mathurin gets a head of steam going to the basket, he’s somewhat reliant on drawing fouls — evident through his 50.0% shooting at the rim, which ranks in the 19th percentile among all qualifiers. A slight improvement over the 46.0% clip he posted at the rim last season, Mathurin’s future growth is tough to project overall.
Since moving to the bench, Mathurin is averaging 14.8 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.0 assists on 48.5% shooting and 11.0 shots per game over nine contests. His statistical output should hover in this range moving forward, which makes him a solid sell-high candidate, but only for a certified upgrade. There’s no panic to move the 21-year-old.
