Fantasy Basketball Trade Analyzer: Is it time to sell high on Kawhi Leonard?
By Alex Barutha, RotoWire
Special to Yahoo Sports
Following Christmas, hopefully, your fellow fantasy league managers are still in a festive mood. We’re just over a third of the way through the season, so small sample size is essentially out the window, and it should be clear by now which teams in your league are strong and which are weak. It’s now or never for struggling teams to get aggressive on the wire and in the trade market, giving you an opportunity to take advantage.
Trade away: Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers
Shockingly, the 32-year-old Leonard has missed just two games this season — the Clippers’ most recent outings. He’s in the midst of one of the best years of his career, ranking sixth in nine-cat production and averaging 41.8 FP. After an initial adjustment period with James Harden, Leonard has been on fire lately. His past 12 games have resulted in 29.3 points on 59/52/92 shooting, 6.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.3 steals. Leonard’s shooting will normalize sooner than later — though he’ll still probably be roughly a 50/40/90 player — and it feels like only a matter of time before he suffers a significant injury or starts getting rested. Trading him straight up might be difficult, as it’s unlikely anyone gives you better than a top-25 player for him. But it might be worth exploring a two-for-one trade, especially if your depth is weak.
Trade for: Deni Avdija, Washington Wizards
Avdija is rostered in 60% of leagues, so he’s mostly a buy-low target in deeper formats. But in standard leagues, you might be able to get him as a throw-in as part of a bigger trade. Washington’s rotation is inconsistent, as are Avdija’s minutes. But assuming the season continues its downward slide, the 22-year-old is someone who could be given more minutes and usage down the stretch, especially if Kyle Kuzma (who is 28) is load-managed or traded. Tyus Jones being traded as expected could also help Avdija’s production. The forward is in a small slump, but he’s ranked 138th in per-game, nine-category production in 26.9 minutes, and he’s averaging 1.0 fantasy points per minute.
Trade away: Deandre Ayton, Portland Trail Blazers
Ayton missed three games due to left knee soreness from Dec. 6 to 11, and he’s now being listed as questionable with knee tendinitis for Tuesday’s game against the Kings. That raises red flags for me, as we’ve seen Markelle Fultz miss over a month with knee tendinitis – an injury that usually requires significant time off to completely heal. Ayton is playing well enough to move off before this potentially becomes a bigger issue. Plus, trading him away allows you to dodge the possibility of late-season shenanigans by Portland. Ayton, at 25 years old and a proven NBA player, doesn’t exactly need developmental minutes if the team decides to chase a higher draft pick.
Trade for: Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons
Thompson is in a fairly similar boat to Avdija. He’s 65% rostered and is playing on a flailing team with an inconsistent rotation. Managers in a position of weakness might not have time or patience for more back and forth, which allows you an opportunity to strike if your roster is in a better position. He’s averaging 30.2 fantasy points as a starter compared to 12.0 FP when coming off the bench. He’s ranked 148th in nine-cat formats. I’m still banking on his talent, and I won’t be surprised if vets like Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks stop playing at the end of the year or are traded elsewhere, allowing more minutes and touches for Thompson.
Trade for: Walker Kessler, Utah Jazz
Kessler’s buy-low value falls into the “it can’t get worse than this” category, similar to a player like Jordan Poole. Kessler has been just a spot starter since returning from injury, though the good news is that his blocks are back. Over the past 14 games, he’s swatting 3.1 shots per contest, though he’s playing only 25.6 minutes. His 30.8 FP/g over this stretch is certainly enough to make him a must-roster player, and he’s just inside the top 80 over the past two weeks in nine-cat formats. Later in the year, it’s possible, if not likely, that the center begins seeing 30-plus minutes with some consistency. The Jazz are struggling this year, and tanking looks more than likely. Managers in two-center formats might find value in offering a guard or forward with slightly more current value than Kessler.
Trade away: Tyus Jones, Washington Wizards
Jones has been one of the disappointments of the fantasy season. It seemed like he could return top-75-or-higher value in a starting role. He was dropped in a decent chunk of leagues, especially 10-team formats by managers who were near the bottom of the standings. But he’s picked things up recently. Over the past five games, he’s averaged 17.8 points on 67/74/50 shooting, 8.0 assists, 4.2 rebounds and 2.2 steals in 31.4 minutes. Obviously, those shooting splits are unsustainable, but it’d still be a nice stretch if he were averaging 13 points. The point is, this represents a great sell-high opportunity while he’s seeing extended minutes and shooting well. The rumor mill suggests Washington will look to trade the 27-year-old point guard at the deadline. Assuming that happens, he’ll probably be moved into a backup role. So get some value back now for him while you can.
