Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer: Buy lows and sell highs ahead of the MLB trade deadline
Aside from April, late July is the best time of the year to make 2-for-1 trades in your fantasy baseball leagues. The MLB trade deadline will bring several players onto the waiver wire radar, in terms of new closers, youngsters who are promoted to full-time roles and veterans who find themselves on better teams. Creating roster space now will help managers quickly jump on free agents at the end of the month.
This week's second piece of advice is for those in head-to-head leagues to take a long look at injured players. Specifically, those who have had a good season thus far can afford to make a trade where they give up a healthy player for a better player who is expected to return from the IL in August. Holding an extra injured player could cost a manager a win in the coming weeks, but it will be worth the risk if the player is a game-changer during the fantasy playoffs.
Sell Low
Kevin Gausman (SP, Toronto Blue Jays)
Those who have overcome Gausman’s struggles while remaining high in the standings should try to trade him now for a player with better production but less name value. The right-hander has dealt with diminished fastball velocity and effectiveness this year, which has contributed to a lower strikeout rate and worse ratios.
Gausman's 4.55 ERA is a deserved mark, as Statcast has assigned him a 5.12 xERA. And his 1.30 WHIP is not due to poor batted ball luck (.308 BABIP). Gausman could enjoy better luck on his 67.2% strand rate, but even with that change, he is likely a 4.00 ERA pitcher down the stretch, in a season where 4.00 ERA pitchers are easy to find on the waiver wire.
Adolis García (OF, Texas Rangers)
I’m not sure that some fantasy managers fully understand the degree to which García is underachieving this season. To put his struggles in perspective, no player in baseball has hit worse than García across as many plate appearances since May 1. The 31-year-old was terrific way back in April (.301 BA, 6 HR, 21 RBI, .929 OPS). Since May 1, however, García has hit .170 with nine homers, four steals and 22 RBI over 67 games. García managers who remain in contention should strongly consider swapping him for someone who is having a better season.
Buy High
Marcell Ozuna (OF, Atlanta Braves)
Ozuna should be regarded as a top-15 player on the Yahoo! Trade Market but isn’t assigned that lofty standard in many leagues. He ranks ninth on the Yahoo! MVPs list this year, and the categories where he shines — homers, RBI and batting average — are the hardest ones to secure from the waiver wire. He hasn't been propped up by good fortune, either, as he ranks among the top five in xBA, xSLG and xwOBA on Statcast.
Ozuna is underrated due to his age (33) and inconsistent career track record, but he is as likely as any hitter to post strong batting numbers down the stretch.
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Sell High
Josh Smith (3B/SS/OF, Texas Rangers)
Smith is seemingly in the midst of a breakout season, having boosted his year-over-year OPS by over 200 points. And the Rangers have rewarded the 26-year-old by batting him third in the lineup more often than in any other spot. However, the Statcast data on Smith is grim, as he has the most negative gap of any qualified player between his SLG and xSLG and his wOBA and xwOBA. I would be happy to get any player from Smith whom I can envision remaining on my roster until at least September 1.
Anthony Volpe (SS, New York Yankees)
At first glance, Volpe has been a respectable fantasy asset this year. After all, he’s on pace for roughly 10 homers, 25 steals and over 100 runs scored. But those numbers don’t tell the whole story of someone who got off to a hot start before hitting .216 with one homer and six steals since the beginning of June.
The Yankees have recently tried other players in the leadoff spot, which is the final blow to Volpe’s fantasy potential. Like Smith, the goal should be to trade Volpe for anyone who could be a roster mainstay.
Buy Low
Max Fried (SP, Atlanta Braves)
Fried, who was recently placed on the IL due to forearm neuritis, is a great example of the point that was made in the introduction. There is no timeline for the left-hander to return, which means that those who are in a tight playoff race in head-to-head leagues may not get him back before their season ends. Those who have a firm grip on a playoff spot could trade an average starter for Fried, in hopes that they can add someone to their playoff lineup who qualifies as a No. 2 fantasy starter when healthy.
Spencer Horwitz (1B/2B, Toronto Blue Jays)
Despite playing well so far, Horwitz has generated little fantasy buzz. However, managers in points leagues should get more familiar with his exploits, as the 26-year-old has a solid skill set for that format. Horwitz has some power, maintains exceptional control over the strike zone (16:22 BB:K ratio) and draws nearly every plate appearance from the top two spots in the lineup, making him a great fit in leagues that don’t place significant value on steals. He can be acquired for a small cost in deep formats and plucked from waivers in some shallow leagues.