As Eagles implode, how team, NFL history shows there's still hope for a Super turnaround
PHILADELPHIA − Things certainly seem bleak for the Eagles, trying to recover after starting out 10-1 only to lose four of the next five.
It's even more worrisome when the coaches and players are at a loss to explain the funk that they are in. That's true both on offense and defense.
It hardly bodes well for the Eagles' chances to return to the Super Bowl. In the span of five weeks, the Eagles have gone from a No. 1 seed − a first-round bye and home field advantage up until the Super Bowl − to a wildcard, likely needing to win three straight road games to get to the championship game.
The only thing that can help the Eagles' path is a win Sunday over the Giants (5-11) coupled with a Cowboys loss to the Washington Commanders (4-12). That scenario would give the Eagles the No. 2 seed, and at least two home playoff games.
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But that's wishful thinking right now.
Eagles offensive coordinator Brian Johnson tried to explain the possession late in the fourth quarter that began at Arizona's 39-yard line and ultimately resulted in a field goal. The Eagles reached the 20 before a holding penalty moved them back to a first-and-20 from the 30.
The Eagles then tried two Jalen Hurts runs that netted 1 yard, followed by a screen pass on third-and-19 that gained 4 yards and led to a Jake Elliott field goal for a 3-point lead with 2:33 left. The Cardinals then marched down the field for the game-winning touchdown.
Hurts never targeted A.J. Brown (1,410 yards receiving) or DeVonta Smith (1,066) on those last three plays. In fact, both Brown and Smith each got just one target in the entire second half. Brown had the only reception.
Looking back, Johnson took the blame and said that needs to change.
"A.J. is a great player, and we've got to force him the ball sometimes and make sure we get him going," Johnson said.
The answers weren't any more enlightening from de facto defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, whose unit allowed the Cardinals (4-12) to rack up 221 yards rushing and 228 more passing.
But one glaring area was when edge rusher Haason Reddick, who leads the team with 11 sacks, dropped into coverage seven times. Fellow edge rushers Brandon Graham and Nolan Smith dropped back into coverage, too, rather than rush the passer.
In the 9 plays Haason Reddick, Nolan Smith & Brandon Graham dropped in coverage...
Kyler Murray: 9/9, 59 yards, TD (per TruMedia)
Matt Patricia: "When you're trying to stop the run and they have a balanced offense from that aspect of it, you're caught in between."— Brooks Kubena (@BKubena) January 2, 2024
The results were as bad as you could imagine. Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray completed all nine of his pass attempts for 59 yards in those situations, according to The Athletic.
"I'm always conscious of making sure that I get our guys that can rush, to rush, as much as we can," Patricia said. "And sometimes the game dictates or the personnel packages dictate a little differently in those situations. ... I think that's where I can do a better job of understanding that maybe we got caught in a spring of plays, and sometimes that happens if you're playing a really long series."
Will Eagles replicate 2012 Baltimore Ravens, 1986 Jets, or 1981 Eagles?
There's still hope for the Eagles, however, if history is any type of guide.
The 2012 Ravens started out 9-2 that season before finishing 1-4. Like the Eagles, that slide cost Baltimore the No. 1 overall seed. But the Ravens did hang on to win the AFC North, getting one home game, which they won.
Then they won in Denver 38-35 after University of Delaware star Joe Flacco threw a game-tying 70-yard touchdown pass with 31 seconds left to force overtime. The Ravens then beat the Patriots 27-13 in New England in the AFC Championship game.
Flacco and the Ravens beat the San Francisco 49ers 34-31 in the Super Bowl.
But there's also the 1981 Eagles team that didn't fare nearly as well.
Just like this season, that team was coming off a Super Bowl defeat. The Eagles started 9-2 that season, stumbled to a 1-4 finish. They were bounced in the wildcard round by the Giants. They followed that up with six straight losing seasons.
The 1996 Jets also provide some hope, and a warning. They started 10-1, then lost their last five games. They began the playoffs as a wildcard and won in Kansas City.
The next week, they had a 10-point lead in the final minutes at Cleveland − and lost.
Since 2014, how NFL teams fared after 10-1 (or better) starts
This does not bode well for the Eagles.
Of the teams with starts of 10-1 or better, only the 2020 Pittsburgh Steelers won fewer than two of their remaining games, and they were bounced in the first round.
The Patriots finished 2-3 twice after their 10-1 starts. They reached the AFC Championship in 2015 and lost in the wildcard in 2019.
2023 Eagles: 10-1, 1-4 (so far), ???
2022 Eagles: 10-1, finished 4-2, lost Super Bowl
2020 Pittsburgh Steelers: 11-0, finished 1-4, lost wildcard round
2020 Kansas City Chiefs: 10-1, finished 4-1, lost Super Bowl
2019 San Francisco 49ers: 10-1, finished 3-2, lost Super Bowl
2019 New England Patriots: 10-1, finished 2-3, lost in wildcard round
2018 New Orleans Saints: 10-1, finished 3-2, beat Eagles in divisional round, lost NFC Championship
2018 Los Angeles Rams: 10-1, finished 3-2, lost Super Bowl
2017 Eagles: 10-1, finished 3-2, won Super Bowl
2016 Dallas Cowboys: 10-1, finished 3-2, lost in divisional round
2015, Carolina Panthers: 10-1, finished 5-0, lost Super Bowl
2015 New England Patriots: 10-1, finished 2-3, lost AFC Championship
Best starts in Eagles history − and the finish
There's hope for the Eagles here. They finished 1-3 in 1980, then won two home playoff games over Minnesota and Dallas to reach the Super Bowl where they lost to the Oakland Raiders.
2017: Started 10-1, finished 3-2, won Super Bowl
2004: Started 10-1, finished 3-2, lost Super Bowl
1994: Started 7-2, finished 0-7, missed playoffs
1981: Started 9-2, finished 1-4, lost wildcard
1980: Started 11-1, finished 1-3, lost Super Bowl
1961: Started 7-1, finished 3-3, lost "Playoff Bowl" for third place
1960: Started 9-1, finished 1-1, won NFL championship
1949: Went 11-1 in the regular season, won NFL championship
1948: Started 8-1-1, finished 1-1, won NFL championship
Contact Martin Frank at mfrank@delawareonline.com. Follow on X @Mfranknfl.
This article originally appeared on Delaware News Journal: How NFL history shows Eagles can stop implosion after 10-1 start