Daily Fantasy Football Week 7: Lineup building blocks and undervalued options to target
Whether you've played Daily Fantasy on Yahoo before or are giving it a try for the first time, this weekly column will take an early look at the DFS landscape, revealing whom I like building lineups around, stars to fade, undervalued plays and bargain bin options to help you construct a better team.
Lineup building blocks
Lamar Jackson ($40) vs. Cleveland Browns
Jackson has totaled just three touchdowns over the last three weeks after ripping off 12 scores over the first three games of the season, but his schedule eases up Sunday. The Browns defense ranks second to last in DVOA and is also toward the bottom of the league in pressure rate (and Myles Garrett aggravated his shoulder injury last week). They've allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
Since Week 1, Jackson has averaged 86.8 rush yards over five games, which is more than the year in which he set an NFL record for rushing yards by a QB.
Jackson stands out with no Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts on the DFS slate, and Patrick Mahomes has a tough matchup.
Mark Andrews ($27) vs. Cleveland Browns
Andrews has a near 10 percent higher target share while averaging far more air yards than Travis Kelce this season. Yet, his salary remains the cheaper of the two this week despite a much more favorable matchup. The Browns have allowed the second-most EPA/play on defense, and their matchups are among the highest in average combined points scored this season. This looks like a fine stacking opportunity.
CeeDee Lamb ($23) vs. Detroit Lions
Lamb will benefit greatly from Dak Prescott’s expected return this week as well as facing a Lions pass defense that ranks last in DVOA, has allowed 7.7 YPA and has recorded the fewest sacks in the league. Playing indoors in a matchup with one of the highest totals (48.0 points) of the week, Lamb should finally cash his abundance of targets into a big fantasy game.
The Cowboys became one of the run-heaviest teams in football with Cooper Rush, but that should change assuming Prescott returns.
Star to fade
Christian McCaffrey ($35) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
McCaffrey’s fantasy floor remains high given his workload, but 0.5 PPR especially hurts him given the lack of scoring opportunities while playing for the league’s worst team and so much of his production coming as a receiver (he’s averaged just 50.0 rushing yards over the last three weeks).
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The Buccaneers have serious issues on offense, but their defense has ceded the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs, including an NFL-low 11.6 receiving yards per game to the position. The Panthers have the lowest implied team total (15.0 points) this week, as PJ Walker didn’t even attempt a forward pass last week, when DJ Moore had a 184% air yardage share!
Whether it’s one of the three injured quarterbacks or fourth-stringer Jacob Eason starting Sunday, CMC will be the focal point of a Carolina offense that’s sure to struggle to make many trips to the red zone this week.
Undervalued options
Joe Mixon ($21) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Volume has been there for Mixon, and his difficult schedule that included four of the last five games on the road gets more favorable this week. The Bengals return home to face a Falcons run defense that ranks 25th in DVOA and has allowed the second-highest percentage of rush attempts go for first downs this season. Mixon led the NFL in touches per game (24.8) before last week’s shootout, and Sunday’s matchup should be much different facing an Atlanta offense that might be the most conservative in the league (last week Cincinnati ran every single meaningful play out of shotgun).
Mixon has gotten 5.6 YPC over the last two weeks after failing to surpass 3.0 during any game over the first month of the season, and he’s on pace to shatter his career-high in receptions by 25. Mixon is one of the league’s few true workhorses, and the Bengals are near touchdown home favorites against a shaky defense that’s bottom-five in EPA/play allowed. Yet, his salary is barely that of a top-15 RB this week.
Kenneth Walker ($23) @ Los Angeles Chargers
Walker impressed during his first start last week and immediately acted as Seattle’s lead back (even seeing three more targets than DeeJay Dallas). He gets a Chargers defense that had allowed the most fantasy points to running backs this season before facing Denver’s league-worst rushing offense Monday night. Seattle continues to be the premier fantasy matchup this year, getting the second-most yards per play and allowing the third-most.
This week they face a Chargers team with the league’s fastest pace (neutral situations) in a matchup with an over/under (51.5 points) that’s a full field goal more than the game with the next highest projected total. Walker easily leads the NFL in avoided tackle rate and is undervalued with a salary outside the top 10 running backs.
Bargain Bin
Las Vegas Raiders D/ST ($10) vs. Houston Texans
The Raiders are the DFS minimum despite being touchdown home favorites against a Houston offense that’s bottom-five in pressure rate allowed, yardage gained and points scored. Over nine career games on the road, Davis Mills has gotten 5.6 YPA with a 5:11 TD:INT ratio (and six fumbles). The Raiders have allowed the fewest EPA/rush this season, so Mills could be asked to throw more than the underdog Texans would prefer Sunday, making Las Vegas an intriguing minimum D/ST.
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