Could Syracuse's win over No. 6 Florida State be a sign of things to come?
Saturday’s matchup between Florida State and Syracuse at the Carrier Dome followed the script of so many other Saturday afternoons at the Carrier Dome over the past 15 years. The protagonists were Syracuse’s zone and up-tempo offense. The antagonist was an opponent stricken by their success. The end game, of course, was a Syracuse victory.
But this time, this season, that script was entirely unexpected. Florida State travelled north as a favorite, and as the only one of the two teams with a number — No. 6 — beside its name. Syracuse’s victory brought students storming to the court:
The win, 82-72 on the back of 45 combined points from Andrew White III and John Gillon, was Syracuse’s second in a row. The Seminoles have lost two in a row. Is either mini-spurt the start of a trend? Or merely a blip?
Syracuse came into Saturday 12-9, 4-4 in the ACC, and just 2-6 against teams in KenPom’s top 75. Jim Boeheim’s team looked like NCAA tournament outsiders, especially with nine of its last 10 games either on the road or against top 20 teams — or both.
But it beat one of those top 20 teams Saturday, and did so in vintage Syracuse fashion. That’s what made the performance, and especially the first half, so encouraging. Syracuse’s zone was equal parts suffocating and baffling over the first 20 minutes. Florida State had no plan for beating it. When the Seminoles did work the ball inside the three-point arc, Syracuse’s rotations caused them to hesitate, and those split-second hesitations gave the Orange time to trap, get deflections and make the game ugly. Florida State scored 0.70 points per possession in the first half, and Leonard Hamilton basically admitted at halftime that his team had no idea what it was doing against Syracuse’s notorious 2-3 scheme.
Syracuse’s offense had an ugly start too, but then it began to do what classic Boeheim teams have done. It started to turn defense into offense — 13 points off turnovers in the first half — and get out in transition. It crashed the offensive glass, and rebounded nine of its 19 first-half misses even against Florida State’s massive front line. The Orange led 44-26 at halftime, and looked very much like an NCAA tournament team.
On the other side, Florida State was in the process of delivering its second-straight clunker. Its 22-point loss at Georgia Tech was eligible for a mulligan. But some of the same flaws were evident Saturday. The Seminoles just aren’t a very good passing team, which hurts them against zones. They had just four first-half assists compared to 11 turnovers, and often tried to dribble or pass through tight lanes or windows that were, in reality, non-existent. Georgia Tech had also played various zones on Wednesday, and Florida State had been similarly confused and similarly ineffective.
The second half offered up evidence that this could be nothing more than a one-off occurrence, rather than a sign of what is to come. Florida State climbed back into the game, made eight three-pointers after making just one before the halftime break, and cut the lead to two on at least five occasions. Its ball movement was more crisp. Syracuse’s hands were nowhere near as active, and the zone was therefore less effective. On the other end, the Orange offense stalled. But it made just enough plays to hold off the visitors. Tyler Lydon’s tip-slam was the highlight:
Another thing that changed in the second half was Florida State’s rotation, which is typically 12- or 13-players deep, and was in the first half. Hamilton cut it down to keep his impact players on the floor, and those players — Dwayne Bacon, Jonathan Isaac and Xavier Rathan-Mayes — were the ones who led the comeback. As the season nears the home stretch, that should become a more common occurrence.
There is, though, reason to believe that at least one of these two-game streaks will become a trend. Syracuse showed signs of being the team that made a Final Four run last year. White III and Lydon are high-level ACC players, and the disruptive zone, something we saw glimpses of Saturday, is a Syracuse staple. Florida State, on the other hand, could fall off as opposing defenses begin to take advantage of the weaknesses on display this week. The team’s offense looked out of sync, even to some extent in the second-half comeback, and the lack of ball movement could become a real issue.
Florida State is still a top 25 team, and Syracuse is still on the wrong side of the bubble. But Saturday brought them closer together, even if only ever so slightly.