Conviction Picks: Week 16 fantasy football takes our analysts believe in the most
Our analysts reveal the takes they have the most conviction for heading into Round Two of the fantasy football playoffs to help you feel better about the lineup decisions ahead. For more start-sit advice, check out our Week 16 position-by-position rankings.
The rookie finally enters must-start status
It finally happened. The rookie we’ve been yearning to see run out in a full-time role at long last got that promotion. Over the last two weeks, Rashee Rice has run a route on 80.2% of the Chiefs' dropbacks. That jump from the 60% range to north of 80% is critical. His aDOT over the last two weeks is only 5.1. He’s still only being tasked with running a small handful of routes over the middle of the field as a slot or off-ball flanker receiver. He’s not running out in the assignment of a typical No. 1 wideout. But this is more critical to debating his long-term outlook. For now, he has a 23.5% target share, which is the highest on the team. Being on the field more was all we needed to get that bump in production. He’s a clear-cut must-start receiver going into a good Week 16 matchup against the Raiders. — Matt Harmon
Seahawks receiver trio flies high
Seattle will take on the Titans this week. Tennessee has been above average against the run this season, but poor in coverage. The Titans allow the most production to outside receivers this season. We even saw Noah Brown post 82 yards on eight catches last week against Tennessee with Case Keenum as his quarterback.
| Player | Yds | Y/G | Tgt | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Metcalf | 1,114 | 69.6 | 119 | 66 | 8 |
 T. Lockett | 894 | 52.6 | 122 | 79 | 5 |
 J. Smith-Njigba | 628 | 36.9 | 93 | 63 | 4 |
We’ve seen all three Seahawks receivers earn at least 20% of the targets the past three games. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has stepped up and continues to beat man coverage in his rookie season. Tyler Lockett has consistently earned targets, seeing at least 20% of target share in each game since Week 1. DK Metcalf is still a walking cheat code. He leads the NFL in the combination of deep targets and red-zone looks — the most valuable targets in fantasy football.
All three Seattle receivers are starts this week against the Titans' 30th-ranked secondary. — Sal Vetri
Little-known tight end logs a top-five finish
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense is in a terribly sad state, having lost two key inside linebackers to season-ending injuries, which has left the middle of the field quite vulnerable in recent weeks. That will be made all the worse in Week 16, now also down their top three options at safety, with Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee) out, Damontae Kazee out with a suspension and Keanu Neal on IR with a rib injury.
Look for veteran tight end Tanner Hudson to log the best game of his season to date, with a favorable matchup and potential for an increased workload in the absence of WR Ja’Marr Chase. Hudson has ranked third on the team in targets from QB Jake Browning this season, only behind Chase and teammate Tyler Boyd, and could slot in as a primary feature in this week’s game plan up against a string of Steelers backups covering the middle of the field. The Steelers have allowed one or more touchdowns to opposing tight ends in each of the last four weeks, and Hudson will look to make it a fifth here on the road in Week 16. — Kate Magdziuk
A widely available tight end could deliver yet again
The highlight of the New England season will be when it mercifully ends.
But let's appreciate the connection Bailey Zappe seems to have with Hunter Henry. The veteran Henry has been the TE3 and TE4 the last two weeks, and he lost a second touchdown against Kansas City due to penalty. The Broncos defense has been awful in seam coverage all year (nine touchdowns allowed to tight ends, and the worst TE-coverage grade by DVOA). I'm stunned Henry is still unclaimed in over 70% of Yahoo leagues. Assuming he's cleared by the end of the week (Henry did not practice Wednesday), he's approved for proactive fantasy use. — Scott Pianowski
Vikings' backup (backup-backup?) QB a solid streamer
Nick Mullens is getting 8.4 YPA since taking over Minnesota’s QB role and gets a home matchup versus a pass-funnel Detroit defense; the Lions are yielding the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs but the fourth-most to quarterbacks this season. Mullens will continue to benefit from throwing to a healthy Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, and last week’s sudden success rushing is unlikely to repeat Sunday. The Vikings have a healthy implied team total, so Mullens finishes as a top-12 fantasy QB for the second straight week. — Dalton Del Don
Don't ignore this veteran star running back
Aaron Jones returned last week to a 17-touch workload, which should put to rest concerns about his general health and availability. When he’s right — which has only rarely been the case this season — he’s one of the most dangerous multi-purpose backs in the league. He’s also, in all likelihood, the best healthy(ish) receiving option available to the Packers at the moment. On Sunday, he’s facing a Carolina defense that’s been shredded by opposing backs this year, allowing a league-high 21 rushing scores and the third-most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Despite the fact that Jones has been largely unhelpful for the past 15 weeks, you gotta fire him up in the fantasy semis. — Andy Behrens
Double down on this QB coming off a perfect performance
Last week’s 381-yard, four-touchdown performance in a 34-20 drubbing of the Packers in Lambeau Field not only kept the Buccaneers’ NFC South title hopes alive, but it was also the second-highest yardage game of Mayfield’s career. Now, Mayfield is set up for a great closing kick during the fantasy playoffs, as this week he gets optimal home conditions (72 degrees and slight chance of rain and light wind) against a Jacksonville defense that is bottom-three in fantasy points allowed. Weeks 12-14, Joe Flacco, Jake Browning and C.J. Stroud each passed for more than 300 yards against the Jaguars. To add to the fun, the Bucs have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, so look for some offensive fireworks in this game.
Mike Evans has been fantastic this season with 66-1,077-11 to be the WR5 thus far, and Chris Godwin returned to relevance last week with a 10-155-0 performance after a lackluster season. With both his top pass-catchers in peak form, look for Mayfield to post a top-five QB outing in this important fantasy playoff week. — Jorge Martin