Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans prediction, keys to clash of Super Bowl contenders
ORCHARD PARK - The Major League Baseball playoffs are underway and in the wild-card round, the Baltimore Orioles - the team that so many experts believed would be the runaway winner in the American League and a legitimate threat to win the World Series - are already eliminated, swept out in two games by the Kansas City Royals, a team that lost 106 games in 2023.
What does this have to do with Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans Sunday afternoon in a key AFC showdown? The Orioles were a team that ultimately succumbed to high expectations, the same type of expectations that the Texans carried into the 2024 NFL season and now, over the next few months they have to find a way to navigate with a bullseye pinned to their collective back.
They were the consensus favorite to win the weak AFC South after what happened in 2023 when rookie quarterback CJ Stroud exploded on the scene and DeMeco Ryans came back to the franchise where he began his NFL playing career as a second-round pick in 2006 and, as a rookie head coach, led the Texans to a 10-7 record and their first playoff appearance since 2019.
Coming off their surprising 2023, the Texans were put into the Super Bowl contender bucket for 2024. So far, their 3-1 start is nothing to sniff at, and indeed, they’re atop the division, but after hanging on for a solid 29-27 victory in their opener at division rival Indianapolis, the Texans have been underwhelming. They barely beat the Bears 19-13 in a slogfest home opener, went up to Minnesota and got lambasted 34-7, then needed a Stroud TD pass with 18 seconds remaining to get past the winless Jaguars 24-20 last Sunday.
“You can tell that we can definitely be better,” Stroud said. “But to sit 3-1 from the first quarter of the season is definitely a win in my book. But definitely got to clean up a lot of things to get better. I think it’s very adamant and very noticeable that we can get better.”
Now they have the Bills coming to their place Sunday, a team that will be in an ornery mood after suffering their first loss of the season in a 35-10 beatdown at Baltimore.
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“It’s about how much better can our team get in October,” Ryans said. “With the opponents that we have faced, now it’s a matter of we know we played sloppy football in the first month of the season, not Texans football. Our message is how much better can we get?”
Here’s my preview of the game:
Stefon Diggs isn’t the biggest concern for the Bills pass defense
Look, the Diggs storyline is front and center this week as the former Bills great, who became a superstar during his four seasons in Buffalo playing with Josh Allen, faces his previous team for the first time. You can bet every photographer and videographer on the field will climb all over each other to capture the potential shot of Diggs and Allen hugging it out before and after the game.
“Hopefully, yeah, I’ll say what’s up and hopefully the favor’s returned; I’m sure it will be, so we’ll see,” Allen said when asked if he’d interact with Diggs. “I’ve got a lot of love for him. I still do. The things that he did for me in my career, and the things that he did in a Buffalo Bills uniform won’t be forgotten anytime soon, especially from me.”
But here’s the thing: While Diggs is a key piece in Houston’s offense, the receiver the Bills really need to be worried about is Nico Collins whose 489 yards lead the NFL by 103 over second-place Malik Nabers of the Giants. And Collins has done that damage on five fewer receptions than Nabers, carrying a 16.3 yards per catch average with 25 of his 30 receptions producing first downs or touchdowns.
“He’s good, and they feature him a lot,” said Bills CB Rasul Douglas who along with Christian Benford will have their hands full with this Texans passing attack which also includes Tank Dell returning from injury. “I think he’s got like 500 receiving yards already. He definitely pops out on tape.”
As for Diggs, Douglas isn’t sleeping on him. After all, Diggs has 25 catches for 233 yards and two TDs, so it’s not like he’s a forgotten man. “They use him differently than we used him here,” Douglas said, “but he’s competitive, you know. So you just know he’s going to get everyone to compete. Probably wakes up with a little bit more juice than a regular game. But Stef is Stef. He’s a competitor, he’s one of the best receivers.”
Can the Bills’ run defense hold up?
The Ravens are an anomaly in the NFL with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson running the ball, helped by a stout offensive line and a 300-pound fullback in Patrick Ricard. They are a terrible matchup for a Buffalo defense that typically plays with five or six defensive backs on the field, not to mention the current iteration that has been without its two best linebackers and star nickel cornerback. The result was 199 yards for Henry, 271 overall on the ground.
The Texans aren’t built the same way, especially if injured RB Joe Mixon can't return after missing the last two-plus games with an ankle injury. He left the Bengals to join the Texans and in his first game he rushed for 159 yards and a TD against the Colts. Then he got hurt against the Bears and it looks as if, after not practicing, he's not going to be able to get back. So yes, if it ends up being his replacement, Cam Akers, that doesn't change the fact that making Houston a one-dimensional offense would be helpful because the Bills can then cover with six or seven men.
“It starts by being more physical and making sure we’re playing better at the point of attack, and that mindset has to be there for us,” coach Sean McDermott said of his leaky run defense which ranks last in the NFL at 5.7 yards allowed per rush and also gave up 124 to the Cardinals, 139 to the Dolphins and 92 to the Jaguars. “Mixon is a heck of a football player and you can certainly see it when he’s been healthy this year.”
Bills pass rush has to be more impactful
Again, last week wasn’t normal for the defense; the Ravens attempted only 18 passes because they didn’t need to throw. However, when Jackson did drop back, he was under no duress as the Bills’ front four was invisible. The linemen combined for only two pressures, one each by Ed Oliver and Javon Solomon. That’s right, zeroes from Greg Rousseau, AJ Epenesa and Von Miller.
According to ESPN, the Bills’ pass rush win rate of 39% by their metrics through four weeks ranks 19th in the NFL. Given all the assets they have thrown into the line, that’s not good enough, and now they won’t have Oliver and Miller who in his pass rush-only utilization had the best win rate on the team and recorded three sacks.
Stroud has shown uncommon poise since the moment he arrived in the NFL so despite his youth, he’s not a QB the Bills can afford to let sit back there in the pocket and pick and choose where he wants to go with the ball. This will be of the utmost importance depending on who the Bills will have available on defense.
They might get LB Terrel Bernard back which would be big because he’s so much better against the pass than Baylon Spector, but he's questionable, it's the same designation for nickel cornerback Taron Johnson, and safety Taylor Rapp has been ruled out as he didn't clear concussion protocol. If all three are out, the Bills are looking at Spector at MLB, Cam Lewis once again in the slot, and rookie Cole Bishop in the deep end. With all the Texans passing game weapons, you have to wonder whether the Bills can survive if they don’t get heat on Stroud.
This needs to be a big James Cook game
As poorly as the Bills have defended the run, the Texans haven’t been much better as they rank 25th at 4.7 yards allowed per attempt and just gave up 158 yards to the Jaguars. With Khalil Shakir, who has been far and away their most productive WR, ruled out due to his ankle injury, the Bills are going to need the run game to excel to give Allen a chance when he drops back looking to throw to targets who have struggled all season to get separation.
Cook was muted in Baltimore because the game got of hand, but when he did run, there was room against a strong Ravens front. The Texans’ interior linemen such as Folorunso Fatukasi, Mario Edwards, Khalil Davis and ex-Bills washout Tim Settle have all struggled to hold the point of attack. In fact, per Pro Football Focus grades, Davis, Settle and Fatukasi are the three-worst run defenders on the team.
The Bills’ offensive line was excellent in the first three games, not so much last week, so they should be able to open creases for Cook. One area to watch is at RG where 2023 second-round pick O’Cyrus Torrence has not played well, particularly in the run game which is supposed to be his strength. He has to get things turned around.
Curtis Samuel needs to check in
With Shakir out, Samuel has to fill that void because the Bills can’t expect rookie Keon Coleman to suddenly become the No. 1 target, especially when he’s lined up against CB Derek Stingley Jr. who is one of the best cover men in the league. Coleman has made some nice plays in the first four games, but he’s also disappeared at time and has struggled to get open.
This is where Samuel needs to lead the way. He was advertised as a versatile weapon who could be deployed in a variety of roles, but eight catches for 48 harmless yards on the 43 snaps that he’s been in the passing tree is not cutting it. Samuel has to start doing something.
Sal’s prediction: Texans 28, Bills 23
Once again, I do not like the matchup for the Bills. While true, they should be a motivated team looking to bounce back from that debacle in Baltimore Sunday night and that makes them a bit frisky and dangerous, but the continued lack of a downfield passing game is problematic, especially with Shakir out. And defensively, with Oliver and Miller out, if the Bills have to also play without Bernard, Johnson and Rapp, the Texans could have a huge day on offense.
Buffalo Bills 2024 schedule
Week 1: Sunday, Sept . 8, vs. Arizona Cardinals, W 34-28
Week 2: Thursday, Sept. 12, at Miami Dolphins, W 31-10
Week 3: Monday, Sept. 23, vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, W 47-10
Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 29, at Baltimore Ravens, L, 10-35
Preview Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 6, at Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
Week 6: Monday, Oct. 14, at New York Jets, 8:15 p.m.
Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 20, vs Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 27, at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m.
Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 3, vs. Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 10, at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 17, vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m.
Week 12: Nov. 24, BYE WEEK
Week 13: Sunday Dec. 1, vs. San Francisco 49ers, 8:20 p.m.
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 8, at Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m.
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 15, at Detroit Lions, 4:25 p.m.
Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 22, vs. New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
Week 17: Sunday, Dec. 29, vs. New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Week 18: Sunday, Jan. 5, at New England Patriots, TBD
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, and he has written numerous books about the history of the team. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast
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This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Texans prediction, keys to clash of Super Bowl contenders
