Who will go home with the last game ball in the first-round NBA playoff series between the third-seeded Milwaukee Bucks and the sixth-seeded Indiana Pacers?

Probably the team that actually can get two or three consecutive defensive stops in the fourth quarter.

You don't need to be an analytics whiz to understand that both teams are very good at scoring and challenged defensively — both Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo and Indiana's Tyrese Haliburton have been dominant at the offensive end.

Recent history will also tell you that, despite having the home-court advantage, it's not the most favorable matchup for the Bucks, even if Antetokounmpo returns from a left calf strain. This season, the Pacers have won four of the five games between the two teams.

Here's a rundown of those five games:

Nov. 9: Pacers 126, Bucks 124

Without Damian Lillard due to calf soreness, Antetokounmpo has his seventh career game of 50 points or more, with 54. But it wasn't enough to stop the Pacers from winning at Fiserv Forum. The tempo of the Pacers' top-ranked offense wore down the Bucks down in the fourth quarter as Indiana rallied from a 10-point deficit.

Antetokounmpo had 46 points after three quarters to give the Bucks a 94-93 lead, but tired in the fourth quarter as Indiana kept him off the free-throw line. Haliburton's 29 points and 10 assists led the comeback, including the go-ahead three-point basket with 1:22 to play.

Dec. 7: Pacers 128, Bucks 119

The second game was in Las Vegas in the semifinals of the NBA's first In-Season Tournament. Errors late in the game thwarted the Bucks' fourth-quarter comeback.

Antetokounmpo led the Bucks with 37 points and Lillard added 24, but he missed his first seven shots and had a costly turnover in the final minutes. Though Haliburton again led the Pacers to victory with 27 points and 15 assists, some Bucks thought they beat themselves.

"I felt like that was our fault with the late-game execution," Malik Beasley said. "Not knowing what we're in. We could've been better at making the right play and getting in our position and executing. So, I think they did a good job putting pressure on us."

"The talent level that we have is incredible, but we have to be more organized," Antetokounmpo added. "We have to be more organized. I feel like sometimes we're not organized at all."

Bucks forward Bobby Portis reportedly was upset with former Bucks coach Adrian Griffin after the team's performance.

Dec. 13: Bucks 140, Pacers 126

This should have been remembered as the game Antetokoumpo set the franchise scoring record in a game, with 64 points.

And the last layup of the night for the Bucks should have been to present Giannis with the game ball. It didn't turn out that way, though.

While the Bucks picked up their only victory against the Pacers of the season, a misunderstanding about what happened to the game ball became the focus for the NBA world for about 24 hours.

It was the Bucks' 11th straight home victory and Giannis' seventh straight game of shooting at least 60% from the floor (he went 20-for-28) and he became the 100th NBA player to score at least 17,000 points.

"It was fun, man," Portis said after the game. "Obviously, to see your brothers win. We all work so hard, we all sacrifice, we all are together on a daily basis and we see each other’s ups and downs, so it’s cool to see your teammates win.

"Obviously, he was getting to the rim at will, scoring the basketball and getting to the line and just being himself. Happy to be part of it, happy to experience and congrats to him for sure. That’s a lot of buckets."

Jan. 1: Pacers 122, Bucks 113

The Pacers' bench helps end the Bucks' 15-game winning streak at Fiserv Forum, rallying from double-digit deficits twice.

Backup point guard T.J. McConnell, who often plays well against the Bucks, had 16 of Indiana's 70 points off the bench.

"T.J. did a great job of getting into his spots and orchestrating the offense,” Middleton said. “He’s been doing that for a while in that bench unit. Getting to his spots, getting the other guys involved. The main thing is we couldn’t get those guys out the paint, Haliburton and T.J., in that fourth quarter.”

Antetokounmpo's dominant play against the Pacers continued with a triple-double in the loss.

Jan. 3: Pacers 142, Bucks 130

Transition defense continued to be a major issue for the Bucks against Indiana in the final regular-season game between the two teams.

The Pacers shot 74% in the third quarter and outscored the Bucks 47-29. It was Lillard's fourth straight subpar shooting game against the Pacers. He shot 32% in the four games he played against Indiana.

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Bucks vs Pacers last five games; Indiana holds edge in season series