Bucks mailbag: Answers on playoff picture, Middleton's value ... and trading Giannis?
Journal Sentinel beat writer Jim Owczarski dives in to answer reader questions on the Milwaukee Bucks, including Doc Rivers' rotations, Khris Middleton, the Eastern Conference playoff picture and ... trading Giannis?
Here we go!
Scouting Bucks playoff opponents
Stephen: Among the third to 10th teams in the East, which one do you think is the most favorable matchup for the Bucks, and which one the most difficult?
Jim Owczarski: With the Bucks firmly in control of the No. 2 seed, they would be facing a play-in team — which at this writing would be the winner of a Miami-Philadelphia game. The second round would be the winner of a Cleveland-Indiana series.
If that bracket were to hold, the path the Bucks would love to take to the conference finals would be seeing the 76ers and the Pacers. The 76ers have been in a freefall without Joel Embiid and, even if he does get back on the court, how effective could he be after not only not playing since Jan. 30, but also coming off knee surgery? I understand the Pacers went 4-1 against the Bucks this season but that was before Doc Rivers took over and fundamentally changed the way the team defends. The Bucks just have too much size for the Pacers, who even with Pascal Siakam have no answer for Giannis Antetokounmpo.
I honestly don’t think Milwaukee would have a problem with Miami in the first round, as that rematch would remind of the 2020-21 first round, when the angry Bucks swept the Heat following a disappointing loss in the “bubble” (where Antetokounmpo was also hurt, by the way). Cleveland would be a tough series, as it has the size to match up with the Bucks’ front line, but also guards in Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland that would really stress the top of the defense.
Mason M.: While the Celtics are too far ahead in being the No. 1 seed, the Bucks are within striking distance of the three top teams in the West for record. Would it be worth the effort to make a push so the Bucks would have home-court advantage if they make it to the NBA Finals ? Or is that the farthest thing from their minds?
Jim Owczarski: I don’t think the Bucks are looking at the Western Conference standings one bit. While no one has said they’ve focused on clinching the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference, that position gives them (on paper) an easier path to the conference finals. I would think at this point, that would be one “seeding” goal the team wants to achieve.
What about the Bucks' playoff push?
Owen D.: I understand the new coach has been keeping a tighter rotation in prep for playoff time. However, I remain a bit disappointed at how little playing time the talented youth such as Andre Jackson Jr. and MarJon Beauchamp are getting. Will they get more chances next year?
Jim Owczarski: Yes, Rivers has really leaned into the veteran-laden top nine in his rotation with the one “young” guy being second-year guard AJ Green getting some minutes here and there. It made sense, as Rivers could waste no time in learning his team and correcting its issues on both sides of the court. There just weren’t enough minutes to go around for Beauchamp and Jackson. As for next year, it’s very hard to predict. I would imagine if general manager Jon Horst wants to swing any draft-day trades, the young quartet of Beauchamp, Green, Jackson and Chris Livingston might have some appeal as a deal-sweetener — or to acquire a veteran more ready to contribute to another title run.
On teams like the Bucks, where the payroll is hundreds of millions of dollars and the roster has several all-stars, young players will always struggle to find meaningful minutes.
Raymond A.: As the season winds down and we re-integrate Middleton, will health and rest of various starters be a priority?
Jim Owczarski: Rivers actually said the opposite this week, noting it was time to start to ramp up the minutes of the starters so they could be ready for a heavy playoff workload. I think if Middleton had remained healthy post all-star break, maybe there could be considering for “rest” down the stretch. But, under Rivers, the Big Three of Antetokounmpo, Middleton and Damian Lillard have played only a handful of games together. They need to get the reps in game situation.
Khris Middleton is a polarizing figure for Bucks fans
Harry H: Is there any doubt the return of Khris Middleton is a key reason the Bucks are playing better? Seems to me when he's out and Bobby Portis is out, the team flounders.
Jim Owczarski: There is no doubt. He is an all-star and a borderline Hall of Famer (yes, I said it). If his play during the championship run didn’t cement his importance to the Bucks championship hopes, his absence in the 2022 playoff series loss vs. Boston should’ve further illustrated it. Middleton has long proven to be the perfect complement to Antetokounmpo, and his fit alongside Lillard looks good, too. He’s also an underrated team defender with his length and, even if he’s lost a step on that side of the ball, he knows how to make life difficult for the opponent’s better wing players.
Nadia P.: Do you think this team is better prepared than in past years if Middleton gets injured and has to play reduced minutes in the playoffs? My concern is how poorly Jae Crowder has been shooting this year, though his defense is certainly more than solid.
Jim Owczarski: They are better prepared because of Lillard. If Middleton were to be knocked out of a series like in 2022, or be hobbled like last year, Lillard’s offensive capabilities should mitigate the issues the Bucks faced. The team would still have to figure out how to replace Middleton’s size and savvy on defense, but presumably, they could lean harder into the offense to get them by.
Crowder started the year shooting 51% from behind the three-point line before having core surgery after nine games, but that rate was hardly sustainable. Unfortunately, the 32% he’s been shooting since his return is a bit too low. But if the Big Three are healthy and playing, Crowder is going to have more open looks in the corners and around the basket. He does look totally healthy now and, while individual offensive and defensive ratings are flawed metrics, he has a plus-11.5 net rating since the all-star break. That's in large part because his defense is stingier (111.0 points allowed per 100 possessions) and he’s contributing more layups and floaters to create 122.5 points scored per 100 possessions.
CR from Columbia: Is there any way that the Bucks can get out from under Middleton's contract this year? Even if we have to take a hit this year?
Jim Owczarski: By “this year,” I'm going to assume this coming offseason. He's under contract for $31 million for 2024-25 and has a $33.3 million player option for 2025-26. I’m not sure “get out from under” is the phrase the Bucks would use, as it’s a relatively modest price for an all-star caliber, championship-level player. By comparison, Deandre Ayton, C.J. McCollum, Ben Simmons, Michael Porter Jr. and Tobias Harris make more.
Unlike the NFL and its “dead cap” issues, there would be no salary cap or luxury tax “hit” by trading Middleton. Rather, should the team decide it's in its best interest to trade Middleton, it would be for a cheaper or a similarly salaried player along with draft compensation.
More: The Bucks' Khris Middleton opens up on getting through his toughest year and bouncing back
Trade Giannis? It’s on Bucks' fans minds
Robert R.: If Milwaukee does not win a championship in the next two years, will the organization give strong consideration to trading Giannis to replenish their roster and draft picks?
David M.: It sounds like heresy and I'd rather it never happened, but is there a point in two or maybe three seasons in which it makes sense for the Bucks (and the Bucks think it makes sense, and Giannis still has this kind of value) to shop Giannis for a bunch of picks and players, a little like the '90s Cowboys swapping Herschel Walker for what became the building blocks of their Super Bowl years?
Jim Owczarski: OK then. First, let’s lay out some related facts. By signing yet another contract extension last fall, here is what Antetokounmpo is under contract for:
2024-25: $48.8 million
2025-26: $54.3 million (estimated)
2026-27: $58.6 million (estimated)
2027-28: $62.9 million (estimated player option)
As for future draft picks, the Bucks don't control their own first-round pick until 2031 (they have first-round swaps owed to New Orleans and Portland so those picks can’t be dealt until that respective draft).
To the question, I don’t think the Bucks would move Antetokounmpo unless he asks to go. And at that point, it invariably creates restrictions on the market because his list would likely just be one team — or only a couple.
But if he’s content to play out his contract and see what happens after that, the Bucks should continue to build around him as best they can. LeBron James has never been traded and Oklahoma City kept Kevin Durant through his contract year. Antetokounmpo is a player who gives you a chance if he’s on the team, and James’ Cleveland and Miami teams all reached the Finals in his “walk years,” while Durant’s Thunder lost in seven games in the conference finals.
When you’re talking about one of the best players in the history of the sport, you don’t cut early without the player handing you the scissors.
How do the Bucks travel?
Connie C.: What are some things about NBA travel and hotel days for road games that may surprise fans? Does the team travel with their own chefs or rely on room service and restaurants? What do players do all day to entertain themselves before a night game?
Jim Owczarski: For me or the team? Because those are entirely different things! Seriously, though, the Bucks travel with their team chefs so they're able to perform the highest level possible. It’s also one of those elements that fits into the nebulous term “culture” when players talk about a team. That said, the team often has dinners together on the road, too, to help foster bonding between coaches and players. On game days, the team typically holds a shootaround in the late morning — so guys are getting warmed up and ready for that and often have a bus ride to and from that location. Then there's treatment and film study, along with the all-important nap. Suddenly, it’s time to go the arena.
I’m not saying there isn’t free time — the team does have off days and off evenings depending on the schedule — but players tend to have pretty structured game-day routines to get themselves ready. What that entails depends on the player.
As for the actual travel, all NBA teams have chartered planes that are ready to roll when needed — be it after a game or the next day. What may surprise fans is that head coaches have a lot of say in where the teams stay and practice on the road, and sometimes that includes locations that have personal connections to those coaches (or a player).
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Milwaukee Bucks mailbag: Trading Giannis, Middleton's value, playoffs
